The 2025-26 VSiN NBA Betting Guide was released on Tuesday, October 7. The 79-page publication features best bets from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts, betting strategy advice from Jonathan Von Tobel and Kelley Bydlon, and trends/insights from Steve Makinen. The guide also features team-by-team previews for all 30 NBA teams, including one on the Toronto Raptors. Keep reading to see how we think the Raptors will do compared to their regular season win total of 38.5.

Make sure you download the 2025-26 NBA Betting Guide for full access to our entire season preview!

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Offense 

The Raptors were lousy offensively last year, finishing bottom five in adjusted offensive rating (109.6). Atrocious three-point shooting was a big culprit. Toronto made only 11.8 threes per game, the second-lowest mark in the league. Turnovers didn’t help either, with the Raptors coughing it up 15.3 times per game (24th in NBA).

The biggest factor, though, was health. Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, and Gradey Dick combined to miss 143 games.

Just having Barnes, Quickley, Barrett, and Dick back should push the Raptors closer to league average. But the real swing factor is Brandon Ingram. Toronto acquired him at the deadline and extended him for three years, $120 million, though an ankle injury shut him down before he ever suited up.

Ingram has plenty of detractors, but there’s no denying he’s a walking bucket. Already one of the league’s best mid-range scorers, he was also hitting 37.4% of his threes on higher volume before getting hurt. He’s exactly the kind of offensive weapon this team needed.

Pairing Ingram with Barnes gives Toronto two tough covers. Barnes’ shooting cratered to 27.1% from three last year after hitting 34.1% in 2023-24, but he remains a high-level point forward — fluid for his size, able to handle the ball, and dangerous attacking downhill. If the jumper returns, he’ll thrive thanks to the extra attention Ingram draws.

Quickley and Barrett should also benefit. Quickley is a crafty creator who can splash deep threes off the dribble or jitterbug his way to the rim. Barrett has turned himself into a reliable catch-and-shoot option, especially from the corners, which complements the southpaw’s awkward-yet-effective straight-line driving.

Dick is the perfect piece alongside them. He shot just 35.0% from deep last season, but it won’t be long before he’s in the 40% range. He has a quick, high release, can shoot on the move, and has enough athleticism and fluidity to punish closeouts.

The depth is intriguing, too. Jamal Shead, Ja’Kobe Walter, Ochai Agbaji, and Jonathan Mogbo can all contribute. Shead is a steady table-setter who can run offense and knock down open threes. Walter and Agbaji are floor-spacers. Mogbo is a unique small-ball big with grab-and-go ability, surprising handles, and energy as a finisher.

Then there’s Collin Murray-Boyles, the No. 9 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. He’s a strong finisher with a decent face-up game and good passing instincts. The question is the jumper — without some threat of a three-ball, his role will be limited.

This is a talented roster. The challenge falls on Darko Rajakovic to make the pieces work. He wants to run a 0.5 offense built on quick decisions, but several players here are natural ball-stoppers.

Defense

The Raptors were scrappier defensively than their record suggested. They finished only 17th in adjusted defensive rating (113.8), but after the All-Star break they ranked second in raw defensive rating (109.4). Rajakovic had them buying in, and now they’ll look to build on that.

Two stats stood out: Toronto forced 15.1 turnovers per game (tied for seventh) and held opponents to 34.9% from three. Only three teams contested threes more effectively. If they can tighten up their corner coverage, that strength could grow.

There are quality defenders throughout the rotation. Poeltl anchors the middle as a reliable rim protector. Guards like Quickley and Shead bring energy despite being undersized. Barnes has flashed elite defensive potential but needs to be more consistent.

Murray-Boyles could also carve out minutes with his disruptive energy. He’s a game-wrecker on this end.

Where Toronto must improve is on the glass. They ranked just 24th in defensive rebound rate (69.6%), giving opponents far too many putback chances.

Outlook

The Raptors are a fascinating futures team. The fit isn’t perfect, but the mix of scorers and grinders stacks up well in the East.

How all the pieces blend remains to be seen, but having two borderline All-Stars and a solid supporting cast should at least produce an average team. And if Toronto is even half-decent, Scotiabank Arena becomes a tough road venue.

Given the state of the East, this feels like a 40-win team with upside to beat expectations in a big way. That puts alternate Overs in play. All of that would steady the organization after a bizarre offseason that saw Masai Ujiri ousted after the draft.

If all else fails, the Raptors could be a good ATS team. They went 48-33-1 ATS last season, which also speaks to the way they fought for Rajakovic. 

Prediction: Over 38.5 Wins

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