The final major of the 2025 tennis season is here, as the top players in the world are in Flushing Meadows, New York for the US Open. Over the next two weeks, we’ll see some incredible action at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, where Aryna Sabalenka will be hoping to repeat as champion. The Belarusian hasn’t won a major this season, but this is one of her favorite tournaments. However, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina are some of the players that will be gunning for the top spot. So, Sabalenka is going to need to work extremely hard if she’s going to find a way back in the winner’s circle. Either way, we can’t wait to see how things play out, and we’ll be covering all of the action at VSiN. Come back to the website for all of my daily tennis best bets for the US Open, but continue reading for my tournament preview below. I’ll get into the US Open court conditions and odds to win, and I’ll also dish out some of my favorite futures.
Make sure you also check out the picks page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. I occasionally post some extra picks there, including my picks for smaller tournaments and Challenger-level events. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Recent US Open Champions
- 2020: Naomi Osaka
- 2021: Emma Raducanu
- 2022: Iga Swiatek
- 2023: Coco Gauff
- 2024: Aryna Sabalenka
2025 US Open Odds To Win
- Iga Swiatek (+240)
- Aryna Sabalenka (+285)
- Coco Gauff (10-1)
- Mirra Andreeva (11-1)
- Elena Rybakina (12-1)
- Naomi Osaka (20-1)
- Madison Keys (20-1)
- Victoria Mboko (22-1)
- Amanda Anisimova (25-1)
- Emma Raducanu (35-1)
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, accurate at time of publishing)
US Open Court Conditions
Embed from Getty ImagesTennis Abstract had a Surface Speed of 1.00 for the 2024 US Open on the men’s side, meaning this was a tour-average tournament when it came to aces. If that number was up at 1.20, that would have meant that there were 20% more aces than we see in tour-average tournaments. That’s something to keep in mind heading into the next two weeks, as this year’s men’s tournament in Cincinnati had a 1.20 Surface Speed. Washington was also up there, as that tournament had a Surface Speed of 1.22. So, when trying to compare the conditions of the US Open to some of the recent tour-level events, you might want to look at Toronto. This year’s Canada Masters had a Surface Speed of 1.03.
Court Pace Index (CPI), another valuable resource when looking into conditions, had the US Open at 42.8 in 2024. That’s interesting because it wasn’t far off from where Cincinnati (43.0) was this year. However, it’s undeniable that the ball bounces a little higher in New York.
During the day, things should play a little quicker, favoring good servers and aggressive baseliners. However, players that hit with spin and try to grind out rallies will have their chances — especially when it’s humid. At night, the bounces will get a little lower and the courts will get a bit slicker.
Of course, these numbers don’t mean the same things for the men and the women. Surface Speed only takes the men’s game into account, and that’s a more serve-oriented side of things. However, power and quick-strike ability will still matter quite a bit for the ladies, and having a good serve is absolutely an advantage — as it is anywhere.
US Open Players To Watch
Clara Tauson: Quarter 1 of the draw is absolutely loaded, which is why I pretty much drew a line through Sabalenka at her outright number. There’s only one player in that part of the draw that I’m interested in backing, and I’ll get into that below. However, I will be monitoring how Tauson does this tournament, as it doesn’t feel like she’s too far away from a serious Grand Slam result. And honestly, I can see her being the player that knocks Sabalenka out.
Only nine players have won more matches than Tauson (33) this season, and only four players have won more hard-court matches than the 22-year-old. She’s a highly talented player that has a big serve, along with the ability to obliterate the ball from the back of the court. Tauson is also a little more accurate with her groundstrokes than some of the tour’s other ball-bashers.
Tauson has also won some big matches this year, including a 6-3, 6-2 victory over Sabalenka in Dubai back in February. She’s absolutely fearless and should be able to stand out in New York.
Victoria Mboko & Barbora Krejcikova: I thought pretty hard about playing both of these players to win Quarter 2, but I didn’t love the prices. However, I genuinely believe the winner of this opening-round blockbuster has the ability to make the semifinals. Mirra Andreeva and Jessica Pegula are the top players in this part of the draw, but both of them are beatable. Andreeva has cooled down considerably after a scorching hot start to the season, and Pegula doesn’t have the type of top-end ability that scares off opponents. So, if Mboko or Krejcikova can play some good tennis, don’t be surprised if one of them makes a run.
Mboko just won a 1000-level title in Canada, and she has proven to be insanely dangerous on hard courts. Meanwhile, Krejcikova has had a strange, injury-filled season, but she has won five of her last eight matches and is starting to find some form. Well, when Krejcikova is on, she’s a player that thrives in big matches. She won the second Grand Slam of her career at Wimbledon in 2024, and she still has some great tennis ahead of her.
RELATED: Check out my men’s tournament preview!
2025 US Open Futures
Jasmine Paolini To Win Quarter 1 (10-1 – 0.25 units): Paolini just made a run to the Cincinnati finals, where she gave a red-hot Swiatek a run for her money. The Italian is now 33-14 on the season, which is good for a career-best 70.2% winning percentage. And while she hasn’t quite topped her Slam success from 2024, she did win the first 1000-level tournament of her career. It’s just clear that Paolini is right there with the top-five players in the sport, so 10-1 feels like a price worth taking — even in a stacked quarter. Paolini probably won’t run into trouble until she faces Rybakina in the fourth round, but she has won two in a row in that head-to-head series. I like that matchup for the Italian, and I’d love to have a 10-1 ticket heading into a meeting with whoever emerges from the top half of that quarter — even if it’s Sabalenka.
Linda Noskova To Win Quarter 3 (15-1 – 0.25 units) & Karolina Muchova To Win Quarter 3 (14-1 – 0.25 units): I’m extremely high on Gauff’s recent coaching changes. The American desperately needs help with her serve and forehand, so bringing in a world-renowned biomechanics specialist should bring out the best in her. We all know Gauff can grind with the best of them, as she’s an elite athlete and she’s one of the toughest competitors in the world. But real change is needed in order for her to consistently win at the highest level. The issue is that Gavin MacMillan is going to need some time to work his magic. Brad Gilbert, Gauff’s old coach, said that technique tweaks take 4-6 weeks to start paying dividends, and that feels like an optimistic timeline.
With Gauff going through it a bit, I like the idea of taking shots on Noskova and Muchova to make the semifinals. We’ll likely see these two clash in the third round, so one of them will be out before the fourth. But there’s no reason the winner can’t take down Madison Keys in the fourth round, and I’d then like our chances against either Gauff or Naomi Osaka. Noskova hasn’t been all that great since Wimbledon, but she did make the Round of 16 there — and probably should have defeated runner-up Amanda Anisimova. When she’s serving well, she’s an absolute force, and it feels like she’s due for a breakthrough. Don’t be surprised if it comes here. As for Muchova, I just think the 29-year-old is a top-10 player in the world when she’s healthy, and it definitely feels like she’s trending in the right direction with her health. Muchova also just lost a nail-biter against Keys in Montreal, so I’d like her chances of flipping the script in New York.
Iga Swiatek To Win US Open (+280 – 2 units): Swiatek no longer looks vulnerable in quicker conditions. The work that the Pole has done with coach Wim Fissette has helped her take her game to new heights. Swiatek’s serve is really coming along nicely, making it harder for opponents to dig in as returners. She has also done a ton of work on her footwork, which is scary considering she was already elite in that regard. Now, the Pole is making fewer mistakes from the forehand wing, giving her big-time weapons on both sides of the court.
It will be interesting to see how Swiatek does now that expectations are high again, but she just ran through a tough draw in Cincinnati without dropping a set — despite facing Anna Kalinskaya, Rybakina and Paolini. And she won nine of her 13 sets at Wimbledon by a score line of 6-2 or better. Swiatek is back to looking like an alpha again, so she should be able to cruise through a relatively easy draw to get to the final. So, at this price to win the tournament, it’s worth loading up on Swiatek. If she gets the right opponent in the final, we’ll be able to hedge this pretty cleanly.
Tennis Links
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast
The post 2025 US Open Women’s Betting Guide: Tournament Odds, Players To Watch & Futures appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment