Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer preview the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky.
The Blue Grass Stakes runs Saturday at 6:22 p.m. Eastern with a $1.25 million purse, part of the final round of 200-point Kentucky Derby qualifying preps – and the field took a significant turn Thursday when Todd Pletcher scratched No. 2 Class President, citing concerns about how the Rebel Stakes winner had been moving during the week. Beer had topped with Class President in his original selections. With the scratch, Aragona and Beer now share the same four horses but in a different order, and both are looking past the likely favorites for value.
Aragona’s top pick: No. 3 Great White
Embed from Getty ImagesGreat White, trained by John Ennis, won the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park last out and makes his dirt debut Saturday. Aragona stays on him as his top pick after the scratch, arguing the gelding ran better than the result showed at Turfway – pressing two early pacesetters, taking over on the far turn, and holding off Fulleffort in the late stages.
“He’s talented,” Aragona said. “He figures to be a fair price once again in this Blue Grass.” Aragona noted that Great White’s odds will likely drop with Class President out of the race, but he still projects him somewhere in the 10-1 range.
Beer agreed the talent is real. “If he handles dirt, I think he can go with these horses,” Beer said – and in the update, Beer said he would give Great White a long look if redoing his selections.
Beer’s top pick: No. 6 Further Ado – with reservations
Further Ado, trained by Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding, is the morning-line favorite at 8-5, returning to Keeneland where he won his maiden by 20 lengths and posted a 98 Beyer Speed Figure – one of the highest marks in this crop. Beer lists him on top after the scratch, but only by default.
Beer’s position is direct: with Class President out of the picture, Further Ado inherited the top spot rather than earned it. “If he was in the race, I never would have had Further Ado on top,” Beer said. His two efforts since that maiden win – a workmanlike score in the Kentucky Jockey Club and a hard-fought second to The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby – have not matched the promise of that 98 Beyer. Beer said he would now look to bet against Further Ado rather than for him.
Aragona framed the price problem directly: with Class President’s support now folding into the pools, Further Ado and No. 4 Reagan’s Honor will likely be depressed to odds neither handicapper finds attractive.
The price play: No. 9 Ottinho
Ottinho, trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat, wore blinkers for the first time in the Withers Stakes last out – a race Beer called a disappointing effort. But Beer said he would promote Ottinho heavily if redoing his selections, citing the horse’s quality maiden win and the room he has to improve with more experience.
Aragona has Ottinho second in his selections. Both handicappers noted his odds should remain in a workable range despite the scratch thinning the field. Beer pointed to Ottinho as the kind of horse who could benefit if the expected pace battle between Further Ado and Reagan’s Honor sets up for a closer.
The handicappers’ verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 3 Great White
No. 9 Ottinho
No. 6 Further Ado
No. 4 Reagan’s Honor
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 6 Further Ado
No. 4 Reagan’s Honor
No. 9 Ottinho
No. 3 Great White
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
For complete Derby Watch Top 20 rankings, visit DRF.com – Derby Watch analyzes top Kentucky Derby contenders each week. For odds, past performances and expert picks, visit DRF.com
Put yourself in position to win big this year with DRF’s Kentucky Derby Package. Top data and trusted picks all in one place.
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
The post 2026 Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland: Picks, preview, and analysis appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment