Monday Night Football Props: Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

The first Monday Night Football game of the season features an intriguing NFC North showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears. The main storylines heading in are how J.J. McCarthy will perform in his first regular season NFL game, and how Ben Johnson’s offense will look in his Bears debut. The good news for both teams offensively is that weather won’t play a major role outside of the wind. Temperatures will sit in the mid to high 60s, with winds averaging 9 mph and gusts up to 13 mph. This should allow both coaches and coordinators to open the full playbook from the start, with the outcome ultimately hinging on execution. Let’s take a look at some notable player props currently available for this matchup.

Passing Projections

J.J. McCarthy: With no prior games to evaluate, projecting his performance is a bit of a shot in the dark. ESPN recently published an article highlighting quarterbacks who made their first career start on Monday Night Football. None of them surpassed 200 passing yards, and most had limited attempts with high completion rates. Considering this is McCarthy’s debut, it’s reasonable to expect the Vikings to lean conservative in their play calling, at least early on. The advantage McCarthy has over many of those predecessors is a deep group of playmakers on the outside. His current lines are set at 222.5 passing yards (over -111; under -113), 1.5 passing touchdowns (over +110; under -140), 31.5 attempts (over -108; under -118), and 20.5 completions (over -103; under -124) per DraftKings.

Caleb Williams: This is a pivotal season for Williams, as the Bears’ front office gave Ben Johnson plenty of new pieces to elevate the offense. With the Vikings starting McCarthy, I expect Chicago to push the tempo early and put pressure on the young Quarterback. The running back room still isn’t where Johnson would like, so I think the passing game will be the focal point throughout the year. Williams is currently listed at 218.5 passing yards for this one (over -113; under -111). That projection is just over 10 yards higher than his average last season, signaling confidence that Johnson will rely more on the air attack. His attempts averaged 33.1 last year, and he’s currently set at 31.5 (over -122; under -105).

Receiving Props

Jalen Nailor: Jalen Nailor is currently set at 20.5 receiving yards (over -112; under -112). Last year he averaged 24.8 yards per game, and the Vikings will be without wideout Jordan Addison due to suspension. While Minnesota did bring back Adam Thielen, he hasn’t had much time to develop chemistry with J.J. McCarthy, so Nailor is likely to take on a meaningful role in this matchup.

DJ Moore and/or Rome Odunze: With Ben Johnson running the offense, I expect the wide receivers to be featured heavily. A key factor is that both players already have a full season alongside Caleb Williams, giving them a strong level of chemistry. Their receiving yard props are fairly modest, with D.J. Moore at 55.5 (over -113; under -111) and Rome Odunze at 48.5 (over -113; under -111). Moore averaged 56.8 yards per game last season, while Odunze averaged 43.2, meaning Odunze’s projection comes in slightly above his previous average.

Rushing Projections

Vikings: I do think the Vikings will lean on the run game quite a bit in McCarthy’s first start, but the addition of Jordan Mason to the backfield complicates things. Aaron Jones still appears to be the feature back, though it’s no surprise Minnesota hasn’t revealed how the carries will be divided. Mason, being a bigger and slightly younger option, could see more work in goal line situations, which may translate into touchdowns. Interestingly, Mason’s anytime touchdown odds are slightly better than Jones’s (+175), currently sitting at +185.

D’Andre Swift: Chicago doesn’t face the same uncertainty as Minnesota, as it’s clear who will handle the majority of the carries. I’m not overly confident, however, in how D’Andre Swift will perform here under a new offensive scheme. The one positive is that the Bears boast a stronger offensive line this season. Swift is listed at 55.5 rushing yards (over -110; under -114), right in line with his 56.4-yard average from last year. In Detroit, operating in a two-back system, Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 83.1 rushing yards per game, while David Montgomery posted 55.4 in Ben Johnson’s offense.