Week 4 of the College Football season is upon us, and it will be hard to live up to the fireworks quarterbacks delivered last week. In two of the three top 25 matchups, the games produced over 80 combined points, and in those two contests all but one quarterback threw for over 300 yards. This Saturday kicks off with a Big 12 showdown between Texas Tech and Utah at Noon ET. In the next timeslot at 3:30 PM ET, Auburn makes the trip to Norman, Oklahoma, to face the Oklahoma Sooners. Lastly, there’s a surprise top 25 matchup between two Big Ten teams, Illinois and Indiana. At the beginning of the season just four short weeks ago, few would have imagined some of these games being AP top 25 matchups, but with college-football chaos inevitable, there will surely be more surprises in the weeks to come. Let’s take a look at the QB matchups in each of these games and the player props available.
(17) Texas Tech vs. (16) Utah
Embed from Getty ImagesBehren Morton:
- Props
- Passing Yards: 260.5 (over -114; under -114)
- Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -158; under +118)
Behren Morton and the Texas Tech Red Raiders embark on Big 12 play with a 3-0 record. Morton has gotten off to a hot start, throwing for 923 yards, 11 touchdowns, and only one interception. This weekend’s matchup against Utah will be the toughest test yet for Morton and the Red Raiders, as the Utes have allowed just 227 passing yards per game, though they have surrendered seven passing touchdowns through their three games. The one thing you can hang your hat on if you’re confident in Morton this weekend is that he’s been very effective at spreading the ball around, showing strength in going through his progressions. The passing-touchdowns projection feels a bit too risky in my opinion, given the odds for the over, as there just isn’t enough value there to make that bet.
Devon Dampier:
- Props
- Passing Yards: 218.5 (over -114; under -114)
- Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -114; under -114)
- Rush Yards: 66.5 (over -114; under -114)
Looking at Devon Dampier, it’s interesting to see how Utah has utilized him through the first three games of the season. In the first two games they kept his pass attempts low—25 in Week 1 and 23 in Week 2—but last week he took a massive leap to 41 attempts. This led to a sharp drop in completion percentage, and Utah scored their fewest points of the season. I anticipate they’ll try to play him more like they did in Week 1, aiming for higher-percentage throws and using him in the run game, where the Utah offense is most efficient. I think the passing-yards projection is too high, and the passing-touchdowns projection could go either way. As for the rushing-yards projection, I see value in the over, especially if Dampier is deployed the way he was against UCLA.
(22) Auburn vs. (11) Oklahoma
Jackson Arnold:
- Props
- Passing Yards: 175.5 (over -114; under -114)
- Passing TD’s: 0.5 (over -172; under +128)
- Rush Yards: 42.5 (over -114; under -114)
Auburn’s Jackson Arnold is making his return to his former school this weekend in Norman, Oklahoma. Arnold has helped lead this Auburn team to a 3-0 start, but this weekend will be by far their toughest game of the season. Through the first three games, Hugh Freeze has primarily utilized Arnold for short- to medium-length passes and leaned heavily on him in the run game, particularly in Weeks 1 and 3. I don’t like to be negative about any player, but this weekend could be a rude awakening for Arnold and this Auburn team. Oklahoma is one of the toughest places to play in the nation, and with Brent Venables’ defense performing at such a high level, Arnold may find himself hitting the under on all his current projections—except perhaps passing touchdowns.
John Mateer:
- Props
- Passing Yards: 255.5 (over -114; under -114)
- Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +154; under -210)
- Rush Yards: 52.5 (over -114; under -114)
Through three weeks of the season, John Mateer has been the best quarterback in the FBS. He has already thrown for 944 yards and five touchdowns, though he does have three interceptions. Mateer has also been effective in the run game, with 33 carries for 161 yards and four touchdowns. Considering he has already faced the tough defense Michigan brought in Week 2, he should have plenty of confidence heading into this matchup. Auburn is no pushover defensively, but because Mateer has already proven he can perform against stiff competition, it could be a long day for the Auburn Tigers.
(9) Illinois vs. (19) Indiana
Luke Altmyer:
- Props
- Passing Yards: 219.5 (over -114; under -114)
- Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +104; under -138)
Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer has been very steady through three games this season, passing for 709 yards and eight touchdowns. His most impressive performance came against Duke, where he threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns. Having shown that kind of production against a Power Five program should inspire confidence heading into this game. Indiana has been strong defensively, especially over the last two weeks against inferior opponents, but facing an equal or better team could prove challenging. I think the best value for Altmyer lies in the over on passing touchdowns, as he has cleared 1.5 in all three games.
Fernando Mendoza:
- Props
- Passing Yards: 250.5 (over -114; under -114)
- Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -220; under +162)
Fernando Mendoza struggled out of the gate against Old Dominion but has been solid over the last two weeks. We haven’t yet seen him in a situation where he needs to sling it for his team to win, which could prove challenging. He has thrown for nine touchdowns in the last two games alone—impressive regardless of the opponent. Obviously, it’s a stretch to believe he can replicate that against a Big Ten opponent, and considering he’s -220 to throw two touchdowns, that bet just isn’t worthwhile. Mendoza has also topped 250 passing yards only once this season, and that came against Indiana State, which isn’t exactly stiff competition. Frankly, I’d avoid any Mendoza props this week, especially since Indiana hasn’t faced a Power Five opponent.
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