Here are my Week 4 college football best bets:
Texas Tech at Utah (-3)
Embed from Getty ImagesAs the quarterback for New Mexico, Devon Dampier rarely had a chance to start in a high-stakes game. The transfer portal has put him at a poker table with the stars. In his first month at Utah, Dampier could be the most impactful player in one of the nation’s marquee games.
The Utes host Texas Tech on Saturday morning in a meeting of 3-0 teams. The winner will get the inside track to the Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff spot. Dampier and Red Raiders quarterback Behren Morton play opposite styles and that fact makes this fight more intriguing.
Morton, who has completed 70.4% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and one interception, is a pocket passer who spreads the ball around. Dampier is more like Kyler Murray, a dynamite playmaker for the Arizona Cardinals. In addition to passing for seven touchdowns with no interceptions, Dampier has 198 rushing yards. He topped 1,000 rushing yards for the Lobos last year.
Texas Tech has scored 58 points per game against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State. Utah averaged 45.7 points against UCLA, Cal Poly and Wyoming. The Utes have faced slightly tougher opposition and played two road games, but inflated stats piled up against weak schedules don’t tell the entire story this early in the season.
Aside from Dampier, the Utes’ edge in this matchup should be their superior strength on the offensive and defensive lines, a trademark of Utah coach Kyle Whittingham’s teams. The home favorite also has a significant advantage at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City.
Best Bet: Utah -3
Auburn at Oklahoma (-7)
Once upon a time, Jackson Arnold was a hyped quarterback recruit who seemed to be the future for the Sooners. Now, in his fourth start for Auburn, he’s storming into Norman to try to beat Oklahoma. Arnold is playing well, but John Mateer has been even better. Mateer, a transfer from Washington State, has passed for 944 yards, rushed for 161 yards and accounted for nine touchdowns. He was especially impressive in Oklahoma’s 24-13 victory over Michigan two weeks ago. The Sooners will likely grind this out with their defense and Mateer, but I’ll take the points with a live ‘dog.
Best Bet: Auburn +7
Purdue at Notre Dame (-25)
Barry Odom was not around for last year’s massacre — a 66-7 win for the Fighting Irish — and the new Purdue coach is already making a big difference. The Boilermakers have a much-improved defense and a quarterback, Ryan Browne, who can move the offense. Notre Dame (0-2) is angry and in need of a get-right game, so the Boilermakers are showing up at the wrong time. In Purdue’s 33-17 loss to USC last week, both teams squandered numerous scoring opportunities. The Irish could get to 50 points on their own behind quarterback CJ Carr and running back Jeremiyah Love.
Best Bet: Purdue-Notre Dame Over 51
California (-13.5) at San Diego State
While freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and the Golden Bears have been impressive in three wins, they are no longer catching anyone by surprise. The betting market has caught up to Cal, which could be getting too much respect with this line. Aztecs coach Sean Lewis had a bye week to prep for this game. San Diego State has a capable offense with quarterback Jayden Denegal and running back Lucky Sutton and should stay competitive.
Best Bet: San Diego State +13.5
Michigan State at USC (-18.5)
The Trojans rolled up 460 total yards, did not punt and should have scored more than 33 points in their win at Purdue. USC has plenty of offensive firepower with quarterback Jayden Maiava and receiver Ja’Kobi Lane leading the way. The Spartans, who averaged 41.5 points in their past two games, can do their part behind dual-threat quarterback Aidan Chiles. Expect an entertaining shootout in this late-night game in Los Angeles.
Best Bet: Michigan State-USC Over 55
Fresno State (-3) at Hawaii
Freshman quarterback Micah Alejado is back after sparking Hawaii’s season-opening win against Stanford. Alejado is more of a playmaker than Fresno’s E.J. Warner, the son of former NFL star Kurt Warner. The Bulldogs feature a punishing ground attack, so the Warriors’ defensive front must make a stand and that’s the key matchup to watch. Alejado has recovered from an ankle and foot injury and is ready to roll for Hawaii, which is 3-0 at home and relishes the ‘dog role in Honolulu.
Best Bet: Hawaii +3
Last week: 2-2 against the spread
Season: 9-7
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