One of the many beautiful things about college football is how chaotic it can get. While many preseason predictions hold up, it remains a volatile business, with highly touted teams and players often falling off very early in the season. On the other end, there are always players and teams nobody considered in the preseason who make a name for themselves. The Heisman race reflects this volatility well—much like the stock market—where players can surge to the top early, then hit a rough stretch that knocks them out of the race. We’re already over a quarter of the way through the college football season, and we’ve seen plenty of changes, with both familiar and new faces near the top. Let’s take a look at the preseason Heisman odds and implied probabilities to see how they stack up against the current standings.
Embed from Getty ImagesHeisman Award Odds & Implied Probabilities
Preseason:
Name | School | Odds | Implied Probability |
Arch Manning | Texas | +650 | 13.33% |
Garrett Nussmeier | LSU | +850 | 10.53% |
Cade Klubnik | Clemson | +950 | 9.52% |
Jeremiah Smith | Ohio State | +1100 | 8.33% |
Drew Allar | Penn State | +1600 | 5.88% |
Sam Leavitt | Arizona State | +1800 | 5.26% |
LaNorris Sellers | South Carolina | +1800 | 5.26% |
Carson Beck | Miami | +1800 | 5.26% |
Ty Simpson | Alabama | +2000 | 4.76% |
Julian Sayin | Ohio State | +2000 | 4.76% |
DJ Lagway | Florida | +2000 | 4.76% |
John Mateer | Oklahoma | +2500 | 3.85% |
Gunner Stockton | Georgia | +2500 | 3.85% |
Dante Moore | Oregon | +2500 | 3.85% |
Jackson Arnold | Auburn | +3500 | 2.78% |
Ryan Williams | Alabama | +3500 | 2.78% |
Jeremiah Love | Notre Dame | +4000 | 2.44% |
Austin Simmons | Ole Miss | +4000 | 2.44% |
Current:
Name | School | Odds | Implied Probability |
John Mateer | Oklahoma | +750 | 11.76% |
Fernando Mendoza | Indiana | +950 | 9.52% |
Dante Moore | Oregon | +1100 | 8.33% |
Joey Aguilar | Tennessee | +1400 | 6.67% |
Marcel Reed | Texas A&M | +1400 | 6.67% |
Gunner Stockton | Georgia | +1500 | 6.25% |
Carson Beck | Miami | +1500 | 6.25% |
Jeremiah Smith | Ohio State | +1500 | 6.25% |
Garrett Nussmeier | LSU | +1600 | 5.88% |
Julian Sayin | Ohio State | +1600 | 5.88% |
Josh Hoover | TCU | +1800 | 5.26% |
Jayden Maiava | USC | +2000 | 4.76% |
Ty Simpson | Alabama | +2200 | 4.35% |
Drew Allar | Penn State | +2500 | 3.85% |
Haynes King | Georgia Tech | +3000 | 3.23% |
Thomas Castellanos | FSU | +3000 | 3.23% |
Beau Pribula | Missouri | +3500 | 2.78% |
Arch Manning | Texas | +3500 | 2.78% |
As you can see, only 10 players from the original list of 18 remain. Since it’s still early in the season, nobody has pulled away. In fact, Arch Manning had shorter odds at the start of the year than current front-runner John Mateer. Another interesting note is that only one non-QB remains—Jeremiah Smith—which isn’t surprising given how difficult it is to win the Heisman as a non-quarterback.
Final Thoughts
As we move just past the quarter mark of the season, there is still plenty of value to be found in the Heisman race. All of these teams are about to dive into the heart of their schedules as conference play begins. This weekend alone, we’ll see four of these contenders face off in the Oregon vs. Penn State matchup and the Alabama vs. Georgia game. Like any story, the more we see, the more we learn, and the clearer things become. With that in mind, if you want to get the most out of your Heisman bets, now is the perfect time, as there’s no clear front-runner and value remains on the table.
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