One of the many beautiful things about college football is how chaotic it can get. While many preseason predictions hold up, it remains a volatile business, with highly touted teams and players often falling off very early in the season. On the other end, there are always players and teams nobody considered in the preseason who make a name for themselves. The Heisman race reflects this volatility well—much like the stock market—where players can surge to the top early, then hit a rough stretch that knocks them out of the race. We’re already over a quarter of the way through the college football season, and we’ve seen plenty of changes, with both familiar and new faces near the top. Let’s take a look at the preseason Heisman odds and implied probabilities to see how they stack up against the current standings. 

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Heisman Award Odds & Implied Probabilities

Preseason:

NameSchoolOddsImplied Probability
Arch ManningTexas+65013.33%
Garrett NussmeierLSU+85010.53%
Cade KlubnikClemson+9509.52%
Jeremiah SmithOhio State+11008.33%
Drew AllarPenn State+16005.88%
Sam LeavittArizona State+18005.26%
LaNorris SellersSouth Carolina+18005.26%
Carson BeckMiami+18005.26%
Ty SimpsonAlabama+20004.76%
Julian SayinOhio State+20004.76%
DJ Lagway Florida+20004.76%
John MateerOklahoma+25003.85%
Gunner StocktonGeorgia+25003.85%
Dante MooreOregon +25003.85%
Jackson ArnoldAuburn+35002.78%
Ryan WilliamsAlabama+35002.78%
Jeremiah LoveNotre Dame+40002.44%
Austin SimmonsOle Miss+40002.44%

Current:

NameSchoolOddsImplied Probability
John MateerOklahoma+75011.76%
Fernando MendozaIndiana+9509.52%
Dante MooreOregon+11008.33%
Joey AguilarTennessee+14006.67%
Marcel ReedTexas A&M+14006.67%
Gunner StocktonGeorgia+15006.25%
Carson BeckMiami+15006.25%
Jeremiah SmithOhio State+15006.25%
Garrett NussmeierLSU+16005.88%
Julian SayinOhio State+16005.88%
Josh HooverTCU+18005.26%
Jayden MaiavaUSC+20004.76%
Ty SimpsonAlabama+22004.35%
Drew AllarPenn State+25003.85%
Haynes KingGeorgia Tech+30003.23%
Thomas CastellanosFSU+30003.23%
Beau PribulaMissouri+35002.78%
Arch ManningTexas+35002.78%

As you can see, only 10 players from the original list of 18 remain. Since it’s still early in the season, nobody has pulled away. In fact, Arch Manning had shorter odds at the start of the year than current front-runner John Mateer. Another interesting note is that only one non-QB remains—Jeremiah Smith—which isn’t surprising given how difficult it is to win the Heisman as a non-quarterback.

Final Thoughts

As we move just past the quarter mark of the season, there is still plenty of value to be found in the Heisman race. All of these teams are about to dive into the heart of their schedules as conference play begins. This weekend alone, we’ll see four of these contenders face off in the Oregon vs. Penn State matchup and the Alabama vs. Georgia game. Like any story, the more we see, the more we learn, and the clearer things become. With that in mind, if you want to get the most out of your Heisman bets, now is the perfect time, as there’s no clear front-runner and value remains on the table.