The games with playoff implications delivered for the most part on Tuesday night, as we had drama across Major League Baseball. Only one of today’s games has an early start and it is a game that has no bearing on the postseason picture, as the Nationals and Braves play at 12:15 p.m. ET.

The Brewers and Padres play a getaway day game in San Diego, as both teams have their playoff tickets punched. San Diego is 1.5 games back of the Cubs for home-field advantage in the Wild Card Round. Milwaukee’s lead for the No. 1 seed is 2.5 games after they and the Phillies both lost yesterday, but they have the tiebreaker, so I don’t think they’re terribly worried about losing a grip on that.

Just like yesterday, we have to keep an eye on the players nearing “round” numbers and see if there’s any player prop value.

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for September 24:

MLB Player Props Today (0.25 units unless noted)

I’ll be looking at some different player props based on players looking for round numbers, career-highs, etc. as the week goes along. Some of these will be smaller risks with some potentially higher rewards. I think it is especially good to look at these where team success no longer matters as much as trying to hit these individual benchmarks, as players may get a little more selfish.

Gunnar Henderson (BAL) Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+360)

I opted for Holliday over Henderson yesterday, which wound up being a mistake. It was Henderson who got closer to a round number by swiping his 28th bag of the season. Tonight, the Orioles face Shane Baz. Would-be base stealers are 18-for-20 against him this season. Hunter Feduccia’s CS% is under 20% now with Henderson’s successful steal last night.

While righties have hit for more power off of Baz with a .465 SLG, lefties have a higher BA (.262) and OBP (.332) and he’s allowed a .284/.353/.483 slash overall in the second half with a 6.71 ERA, so he has not been terribly sharp. He has been better of late, but Henderson wants 30 and he’ll attempt to get closer tonight.

Aaron Judge (NYY) Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)

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Judge needs one homer for 50, but his 1+ HR at +162 per DraftKings is a laughably short number. If Tyler Alexander does follow Fraser Ellard, Judge should get at least three plate appearances against lefties and he has a ridiculous .325/.477/.744 slash with a 209 wRC+ against southpaws. That means he’s 109% better than league average against LHP.

Walks do not count towards total bases. I think he has a great shot to hit No. 50 tonight, but he may also have a couple hits or a double. I think this is a safer approach, even if the squeeze doesn’t produce as much juice as +162 would. Over 0.5 RBI at -104 isn’t a bad wager either.

This is a full-unit bet.

Sonny Gray (STL) Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-124)

With the offseason looming, Gray will do whatever he can to get to 200 strikeouts for the second straight season and third time in his career. He had 203 punchies last season and 205 back in 2019. He needs six in this start tonight, which is evident by his Over/Under Strikeouts prop, which is set at 6.5 with plus money on the Over and heavy Under juice on the other side. I guess people expect him to get to 6 and pack it away.

I guess that’s a possibility, as he’s probably not going to get 12 strikeouts for a new career-high, but I think he’ll push to be in there as long as it takes him to get to 200. If it happens quickly, he might do a five-and-fly and this bet will lose, but I’m going to consider that a strikeout per inning is a reasonable request.

The Giants have a 26.2% K% over the last 14 days against RHP, but also an 11.8% BB%, so they’re working a lot of deep counts. Gray might have to push himself a bit and I think Oliver Marmol will let him, as he’s topped out at 102 pitches in a start this season and this will be his final start of the season.

This one is a full-unit bet.

Players one or two away from big “numbers” in the HR department:

  • Cal Raleigh (58)
  • Kyle Schwarber (54)
  • Aaron Judge (49)
  • Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Pete-Crow Armstrong, Francisco Lindor (29)
  • Matt Olson, Willy Adames, James Wood (28)
  • Jorge Polanco, Ramon Laureano, Mickey Moniak, Tyler Soderstrom, Ben Rice (24)
  • Christian Walker, Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis, Bobby Witt Jr. (23)
  • Max Muncy, Ryan McMahon, Ronald Acuna Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Gavin Sheets, Kody Clemens, Oneil Cruz, Heliot Ramos, Geraldo Perdomo, Yainer Diaz, Logan O’Hoppe, Anthony Volpe, Daulton Varsho, Colson Montgomery, Ivan Herrera (19)
  • Note: Taylor Ward and Riley Greene both went from 34 HR to 35 HR last night. Teoscar Hernandez went from 24 to 25.

Players away from big “numbers” in the SB department:

  • Jose Caballero (48)
  • Oneil Cruz (38)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. (37)
  • Nico Hoerner (29)
  • Josh Naylor, Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Gunnar Henderson (28)
  • Zach McKinstry, Shohei Ohtani, Ceddanne Rafaela, Michael Harris II, Sal Frelick, Jordan Beck (19)
  • Dansby Swanson, Josh Lowe, Dane Myers (now injured), Tyler Freeman, Anthony Volpe, Jackson Chourio, Matt McLain (18)

MLB Picks Today

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (-123, 8)

9:38 p.m. ET

Stephen Kolek and Yusei Kikuchi will wrap up their respective seasons this evening, as the Royals, officially eliminated from the postseason last night, take on the Angels. Look, the Royals are out, which is nothing new for them, outside of last year’s unlikely postseason appearance. But, they do still have something to play for and that is finishing 82-80 or better. The Royals sit 79-78 and haven’t had consecutive seasons with a winning record since they did it three years in a row from 2013-15.

They, of course, won the 2015 World Series. Those two playoff appearances in back-to-back seasons (‘14, ‘15) were their first since 1984-85. And last year’s playoff appearance ended another drought. While they won’t get there again, finishing 82-80 is better than 81-81 or worse. The Angels have no motivation, major questions about their future, and no juice at all right now.

In fact, the Angels have dropped nine of their last 10. Starter Yusei Kikuchi has an 8.10 ERA with a 5.56 xERA and a 5.76 FIP in his last five starts. Overall in the second half, he has a 5.82 ERA in 60.1 innings of work with a .373 wOBA against and a .302/.364/.508 slash. He has a 22/15 K/BB ratio in his last seven starts. I don’t know if he’s hurt or what, but the one thing he’s always had in his back pocket is missing bats. He has only had a double-digit SwStr% four times in the second half.

Meanwhile, Kolek is looking to finish strong. The Royals acquired him at the Trade Deadline from the Padres and he’s made four MLB starts with just six runs allowed in 27 innings of work. He has a 19/3 K/BB ratio and hasn’t allowed a homer with a 55.8% GB%. He and Ryan Bergert look like they could be the next pitching triumphs for the Royals, who just got Cole Ragans back from injury as he looks to finish the season with some positives.

While the sting of missing the playoffs is a bummer, a lot of guys on this Royals roster have incentive to stay engaged, Kolek included. As an underdog tonight, I’m definitely in.

Pick: Royals +101

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