Game: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

Date: October 2nd at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: Amazon Prime Video

This Thursday Night Football game brings us another NFC West matchup, this time between the 49ers and the Rams. Both squads enter this matchup at 3-1, but it will be the 3rd NFC West game for the 49ers and the 1st for the Rams. The biggest question coming into this game for the 49ers is the health of starting quarterback Brock Purdy, as he is still dealing with toe soreness from the injury he sustained in Week 1 at Seattle. If he is able to go, that obviously gives the 49ers a much better chance of winning, but it will also be important to note what percentage he’s at if he does play. The 49ers’ defense has been solid up to this point, but they have an enormous void without star edge rusher Nick Bosa, which was evident in last week’s loss to the Jaguars. After a slow Week 1 start offensively for the Rams, they’ve seemingly gotten things going, averaging over 28 points in their last three. Defensively, things have also been pretty strong, outside of the Week 3 performance against the Philadelphia Eagles. Every divisional matchup is important, but considering this is the Rams’ first of the season and the 49ers are already 2-0 in division, this is a very important game for Los Angeles.

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Weather

The only weather factor that can affect SoFi Stadium is the wind due to its open-air design. This Thursday will bring winds around 7 mph on average, with gusts up to 20 mph, which may have some impact on kicks and punts.

Betting Overview

This NFC West showdown opened with the Rams as 1.5-point favorites, but things have shifted further in their favor to between 5.5 and 6.5 depending on the sportsbook; Moneyline 49ers: (start) +102, (now) +220 to +240, and Rams: (start) -122, (now) -275 to -295. The total hasn’t moved much, if at all, as some books still have the original line of 47.5, while others have it at 46.5.

Bets in this one have been on the Rams at a 52% clip, and the public money has been on the LA spread at a 76% rate.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: This coaching staff matchup is almost dead even. Both teams know each other well, and both Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan have been in their roles since 2017. You can give a slight edge to the Rams, since they’ve been better in this series in recent years.

DLs vs. OLs: These offensive line groups are very close in skill, but the Rams are certainly stronger on the defensive line, giving them the overall edge in the trenches.

QBs: While Brock Purdy hasn’t done anything particularly damaging for his team throughout his career, Matt Stafford has years of experience on him and has logged more games this season. Not to mention, Purdy remains questionable heading into this one.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: This edge clearly favors the 49ers, with elite players at running back, tight end, and linebacker. The Rams are also slightly banged up at tight end, as Tyler Higbee is dealing with a hip injury.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Both teams are dealing with injuries in the secondary, while the 49ers are also battling issues in the receiving corps. For that reason, the nod goes to the Rams, thanks to their elite receivers in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

Betting Trends

Looking at the last 10 matchups between these teams, the 49ers have the slight edge with 6 wins and 6 covers, though the Rams have taken the last 3 outright and covered the last 4. The over/under has split evenly at 5-5, with each team grabbing one apiece last season.

The 49ers enter this matchup 2-2 ATS, 2-0 on the road, but just 1-1 in the division. Their totals have split 2-2, with both unders coming in divisional play, and they are 1-1 on the road.

The Rams have been slightly stronger ATS at 3-1, including 2-0 at home. Their totals have also split 2-2, with both unders coming at home.

Final Thoughts

This Thursday Night matchup should be another exciting one between two strong NFC West teams. The 49ers look a little too banged up here, while the Rams seem to have more on the line. For that reason, I’d take Los Angeles to win and cover the current -6.5. If the line moves to 7 or higher, things could get dicey. As for the total, I would lean slightly toward the under.