The NFL First Touchdown Scorer market for Week 5 has been posted and we’ve got some interesting candidates for this round of games. Bye weeks have arrived, so we’ll start to get some discrepancies between the teams and percentages, as some teams will have played five games and others four games by the end of the weekend. The Falcons, Bears, Packers, and Steelers are the teams who will enjoy their one week off for the season.
Through four weeks, only two teams are a perfect 4-0 scoring the first TD in the game and three teams have not scored the first TD in any of their matchups. The Packers are one of the teams that have gone 4-for-4, so the Jaguars are the only ones in action this week. The Chiefs, Jets, and Titans are the three teams hoping to get off to better starts.
Let’s look at the first team TDs by position thus far and compare that one more time to what happened last season. I’ll include the 2024 data for a couple more weeks and then shelve it. You can find it in the First Touchdown Tracker.
QB: 12 (2024 regular season total: 46)
RB: 34 (2024 total: 190)
WR: 51 (2024 total: 198)
TE: 19 (2024 total: 63)
D/ST: 4 (2024 total: 21)
No TD: 8 (2024 total: 35)
2024 note: One offensive lineman scored a 1st TD last season; they are not listed at sportsbooks, so it was likely graded as ‘No Action’
The RB/WR split was 10/10 for the second straight week. We seem to be slowing down slightly on QB touchdowns now that teams are figuring out what works best in the red zone and have gotten their timing down. We doubled our D/ST number in Week 2 and there were two teams that failed to score tuddies.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Jaguars | 4/4 (100%) |
| Packers | 4/4 (100%) |
| 49ers | 3/4 (75%) |
| Bills | 3/4 (75%) |
| Broncos | 3/4 (75%) |
| Chargers | 3/4 (75%) |
| Colts | 3/4 (75%) |
| Eagles | 3/4 (75%) |
| Falcons | 3/4 (75%) |
| Giants | 3/4 (75%) |
| Seahawks | 3/4 (75%) |
| Steelers | 3/4 (75%) |
| Bears | 2/4 (50%) |
| Commanders | 2/4 (50%) |
| Dolphins | 2/4 (50%) |
| Lions | 2/4 (50%) |
| Panthers | 2/4 (50%) |
| Raiders | 2/4 (50%) |
| Rams | 2/4 (50%) |
| Ravens | 2/4 (50%) |
| Texans | 2/4 (50%) |
| Bengals | 1/4 (25%) |
| Browns | 1/4 (25%) |
| Bucs | 1/4 (25%) |
| Cardinals | 1/4 (25%) |
| Cowboys | 1/4 (25%) |
| Patriots | 1/4 (25%) |
| Saints | 1/4 (25%) |
| Vikings | 1/4 (25%) |
| Chiefs | 0/4 (0%) |
| Jets | 0/4 (0%) |
| Titans | 0/4 (0%) |
As I mentioned, two teams are 4/4, three teams are 0/4, and the rest are somewhere in between. The Bills are not 4/4 in scoring the game’s first TD, but they are 4/4 on their first possession. The Cardinals, Colts, Chiefs, Jets, and Titans are the only teams that are 0/4 on their first possession. The Saints and Giants fell off of that list in Week 4.
One other update for this week is that we already have two players with three first team TDs. Jahmyr Gibbs and Rome Odunze broke the seal on that tab in the First Touchdown Tracker. I’ll include that table going forward, as we may add to it this week.
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2024:
| Ravens | 16/19 (84.2%) |
| Eagles | 16/21 (76.2%) |
| Lions | 12/18 (66.7%) |
| Bengals | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Cardinals | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Colts | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Bucs | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Packers | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Vikings | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Texans | 11/19 (57.9%) |
| Chiefs | 11/20 (55%) |
| Falcons | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Patriots | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Commanders | 10/20 (50%) |
| Broncos | 9/18 (50%) |
| Chargers | 9/18 (50%) |
| Bills | 9/20 (45%) |
| 49ers | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Panthers | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Titans | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Seahawks | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Dolphins | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Jaguars | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Saints | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Cowboys | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Jets | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Raiders | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Rams | 6/19 (31.6%) |
| Bears | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Browns | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Giants | 4/17 (23.5%) |
| Steelers | 4/18 (22.2%) |
With that, let’s get to the Week 5 action and look at some big mismatches from 2024 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible. As mentioned, I’ll include 2024 numbers for 1-2 weeks until we get some decent 2025 data.
NFL Week 5 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025 & 2024
NFL Week 5 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025 and 2024
49ers (75%; 47.1%) at Rams (50%; 31.6%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Vikings (25%; 61.1%) vs. Browns (25%; 29.4%) – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Dolphins (50%; 41.2%) at Panthers (50%; 47.1%) – Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Cowboys (25%; 35.3%) at Jets (0%; 35.3%)
Raiders (50%; 35.3%) at Colts (75%; 64.7%)
Broncos (75%; 50%) at Eagles (75%; 76.2%)
Giants (75%; 23.5%) at Saints (25%: 41.2%)
Texans (50%; 57.9%) at Ravens (50%; 84.2%)
Titans (0%; 47.1%) at Cardinals (25%; 64.7%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Buccaneers (25%; 61.1%) at Seahawks (75%; 41.2%)
Lions (50%; 66.7%) at Bengals (25%; 64.7%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Commanders (50%; 50%) at Chargers (75%; 50%)
Patriots (25%; 52.9%) at Bills (75%; 45%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Chiefs (0%; 55%) at Jaguars (100%; 41.2%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 5 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor +340, Adonai Mitchell +1900
Embed from Getty ImagesThere’s some risk attached here since the Colts haven’t scored on their first possession yet this season, but it is clear that the Raiders still have several disconnects on offense. Taylor is a pretty obvious call here, given that his 17 red zone rushing attempts are tied for the third-most in the NFL thus far. He was fifth in red zone rushing attempts last season.
Mitchell is a bit of a Hail Mary play, but QBs are team leaders. Mitchell took a lot of deserved flack for dropping the ball short of the goal line last week, an epic failure en route to what was supposed to be the first touchdown of his career. If Daniel Jones gets the opportunity to find him in a scoring area or with a play down the field, I think he’s going to try and get him the football so he can make amends for a massive mental blunder. The Raiders have only allowed five passing touchdowns thus far, so it might take finding the third or fourth option to get one early.
New York Giants: Wan’dale Robinson +1200, Devin Singletary +1600
This is clearly a tougher sell without Malik Nabers in the lineup, but the Giants have actually scored the first touchdown in each of their last three games. Not only that, but they scored on their first possession last week with Jaxson Dart at the helm for the first time.
Robinson had snap shares of 76.5%, 70.1%, and 77.3% over the first three games, but with the Nabers injury last week, he shot up to 97.4%, so basically an every-down player. That absolutely makes Robinson worth a look in this market and especially the anytime TD market.
As far as Singletary goes, I know that Cam Skattebo has overtaken the lead back role, but with Tyrone Tracy probably out this week, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Brian Daboll & Co. go with the veteran at the goal line. Skattebo has 14 of the 15 red zone carries for the Giants, but the Saints have actually been a pretty decent run defense thus far and Singletary isn’t a bad short-yardage option.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Travis Etienne +700, Brian Thomas Jr. +1000
Playing QB is usually about keeping your best wide receiver happy. Brian Thomas Jr. is probably pretty unhappy thus far. He’s gotten three red zone targets and hasn’t hauled in any of them. It’s been four games and he doesn’t have a TD yet, despite 32 total targets, nine more than anybody else.
Liam Coen is 4-for-4 this season on scoring first and the Chiefs, while a lot more dangerous with Xavier Worthy back, have struggled in this department and really weren’t all that impressive last season at 55%. They were actually just 3-for-10 to start the season last year. Thomas has to factor in more prominently in the scoring areas for the Jaguars.
We know that Etienne is always going to. Bhayshul Tuten has popped up as a bit of a handcuff at the goal line, but I really do believe that Etienne will continue to be the feature back there and otherwise. Etienne also has three targets in the red zone, so those are part of the equation as well.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article in 2022-23 and the tracker.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Week 5 content in our Betting Hub.
The post Week 5 NFL First Touchdown Scorer Predictions and Bets appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment