The Las Vegas Aces, who were once in serious doubt of even making the WNBA playoffs, now sit just two games away from being crowned champions again. They finished the regular season on an absolute tear. The Aces have done just enough throughout the playoffs to get themselves in position to dispose of the Phoenix Mercury and win another title for Sin City. Phoenix, on the other hand, took down Goliath in Minnesota in their semifinal matchup, and you have to wonder if that feat took too much out of the Mercury heading into these Finals against A’ja Wilson and the coaching prowess of Becky Hammon. 

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The series shifts to Phoenix after Vegas took the commanding 2-0 lead on their home floor, and the Mercury are lined as 4-point favorites at home. TSI projects the Aces -1 still, as Las Vegas has been a terrible matchup for Phoenix all season, winning the last five matchups by an average score of 87-78. I do find it hard to imagine Phoenix losing and digging the dreaded 0-3 hole, which is all but a death sentence in pro basketball, so I understand why the market is strong on Phoenix in this backs-against-the-wall spot. TSI projects the total right in line with the market at 164, although I think an Under lean would be appropriate here. My numbers and instincts disagree here, so no play for me on this game.
WNBA Lean: Under 164

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