We’re now somehow onto Week 7 of the NFL season, and I’m not sure anyone knows who the best team in the league actually is. The Ravens’ defense is abysmal, and Lamar Jackson is hurt. The Chiefs are hit and miss but did just comfortably beat Detroit. The Colts might be for real, but there will always be lingering QB questions in a playoff situation down the road, and the Eagles have been statistically one of the luckiest teams in the league to achieve their record. The parity, or uncertainty, does make for quality entertainment week to week. I am thankful that TSI has had a pretty good grasp from a betting standpoint so far this season. Let’s take a look at the Week 7 slate and see where TSI indicates there’s some early week value.

Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.

Houston vs. Seattle (-3.5), O/U 40.5

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Seattle has far outperformed preseason expectations so far this season. In fact, they’ve been 4.7 points better on the field than their preseason rating. Houston, meanwhile, is probably considered worse than expected by public perception, but they lost to the Rams by 5, the Bucs by 1, and the Jags by a touchdown before shutting out Tennessee and hanging 44 on the skeleton of Baltimore. So where does that leave us? TSI projects this game as basically a pick ‘em, and I expect most everyone will be backing Seattle here as the sexier pick. My formulas based on (opponent-adjusted) red zone %, touchdown %, and points per game also align with Houston plus the points. TSI also projects just 38 points in this game, so I’m going to play both the Texans and the Under.

NFL Picks: Houston Texans +3.5, Under 40.5

Minnesota vs. Philadelphia (-2.5), O/U 43.5

As I mentioned in the intro, the Eagles have somehow managed to start 4-2, but their statistical profile does not match the record. In other words, they’re pretty lucky to be where they are, record-wise. Minnesota is coming off a bye week and has been about a point better than expected so far this season. I think this is a perfect spot to back the Vikings, as TSI projects Philadelphia by just 1.5, but several formulas call for the Vikings’ upset, specifically the yards per play formula and the on-field only TSI formula without any priors baked in (which obviously help bolster Philly’s rating). 

NFL Pick: Minnesota Vikings ML +120

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