Game: New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears

Date: October 19th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: Fox

The New Orleans Saints hit the road after back-to-back home games, heading to the Windy City to face the Chicago Bears. New Orleans enters at 1-5 following a hard-fought loss to the New England Patriots, while Chicago comes in at 3-2 after a last-minute win over the Commanders on Monday Night Football.

Offensively, the Saints have struggled, ranking 24th in yards per game (305.3) and 28th in points per game (18.5). Defensively, things haven’t been much better as they sit 18th in yards allowed (327.3) and 25th in points allowed (26.7).

The Bears, meanwhile, have shown significant improvement on offense from last season, ranking 14th in yards per game (338.6) and 10th in points per game (25.2). Their defense, however, remains a weak spot, sitting 27th in both yards (369.4) and points allowed per game (28.2).

Much like the Panthers, this matchup represents a pivotal moment for the Bears. Coming off a big win, another victory this weekend could serve as a launching point for something greater as the season progresses.

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Weather

Chicago is called the Windy City for a reason, and the wind could play a major role in this matchup. Forecasts call for average wind speeds around 18 mph, with gusts reaching nearly 40 mph. Precipitation should clear out before kickoff, as morning rain is expected to taper off with only a 10% chance of showers in the afternoon. Temperatures will sit in the mid-50s, so while it may be breezy, it’s not quite the frigid Chicago weather we typically see later in the season.

Betting Overview

This non-divisional matchup opened with the Bears favored by 7.5 points, but the line has shifted toward New Orleans, with Chicago now sitting as a 4.5 to 5-point favorite. Similar movement has occurred on the moneyline, as the Saints have moved from +270 to around +190 or +200, while the Bears have shifted from -340 to between -230 and -245. The total has also ticked upward from its opening line of 44.5 to 46.5 at most sportsbooks.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: New Orleans’ struggles haven’t stemmed from poor coaching, but rather from a lack of personnel to consistently compete. That said, wins matter — and this Chicago staff has shown greater consistency and stability, giving them the edge in this category.

DLs vs. OLs: Chicago’s offensive line has been one of the most improved units in the NFL this season, playing a major role in Caleb Williams’ success. The Saints, on the other hand, have struggled on both sides of the line, so the advantage here goes to Chicago.

QBs: Caleb Williams has taken noticeable strides this season and now ranks around the middle of the pack league-wide. Spencer Rattler has exceeded expectations but hasn’t yet displayed the same level of command or playmaking ability as Williams.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: This is where New Orleans has managed to stay competitive. The Saints defend the middle of the field well and have a slightly stronger running back and tight end group compared to Chicago.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Both secondaries have been impressive, but Chicago’s wide receiver group has made major progress this year. This should be a strong matchup on both sides, though the Bears hold a slight edge here as well.

Betting Trends

The Saints come into this matchup with a 2-4 record against the spread (ATS) this season. On the road, they’ve been an even 1-1, with both of those contests coming as underdogs. Totals have been evenly split at 3-3 overall, though the over has hit in both of New Orleans’ road games.

Chicago enters this week at 3-2 ATS, including a 1-1 record at home. The Bears have failed to cover in their lone game as a home favorite. Overs have cashed in three of Chicago’s five games this season but have split 1-1 when playing at Soldier Field.

Final Thoughts

This matchup is certainly a tricky one from a betting standpoint, but with how strong New Orleans’ secondary has been, it’s hard to see Chicago covering here. I do think the Bears will ultimately find a way to win at home, but I’d lean toward the under based on how these defenses match up as well as the winds.