The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, October 17, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* On LCS Game 4 totals, Overs have been huge since 2006, going 31-7-1 for +23.3 units, an ROI of 61.3%.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-LAD (o/u at 7.5)

* Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in a LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 40-62 SU (-25.93 units, ROI: -25.4%).
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+167 at LAD)

Trend: SEA is just 4-12 (-9.10 units) vs. AL East teams with starter Bryce Miller since 2023
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-105 vs TOR)

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament consisting of four rounds, with each round played as a series, featuring progressively more games the deeper you go. Perhaps unlike any other sport, the huge 162-game regular season schedule enhances the stakes of each MLB postseason game tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line angles

–  In that same span since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 56-65 SU for -24.05 units (ROI: -19.9%)
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-116 at SEA)

Coming off wins/losses

–  Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce-back options, going 63-64 SU (-16.99 units, ROI: -13.4%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-105 vs TOR)

Series wins status

–  For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 74-51 SU (+14.51 units, ROI: 11.6%) and 65-60 on run lines (+14.40 units, ROI: 11.5%) since 2013.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

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–  Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 90-81 on run lines (+21.52 units, ROI: 12.6%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+1.5 vs TOR)

Stats from the last game trends

–  MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 8 or more runs are on a 57-53 SU (+0.19 units, ROI: -0.9%) surge and 59-51 on run lines (+6.29 units, ROI: 5.7%) since 2014.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TORONTO

– Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series’ prior game are just 39-64 SU (-16.15 units, ROI: -15.7%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-105 vs TOR), MILWAUKEE (+167 at LAD)

Totals angles

– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 96-92-1, Overs have produced a return of +20.22 units, a ROI of 10.8%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): TOR-SEA (o/u at 7), MIL-LAD (o/u at 7.5)

LCS Round angles

– There has been a -52.6% ROI on betting favorites of -190 or higher in the LCS round, as they are just 10-9 for -9.3 units since 2000.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-205 vs MIL)

– Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, going 46-41 (+16.44 units, ROI: 18.9%) since 2018.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+167 at LAD), SEATTLE (-105 vs TOR)

– Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in a LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 40-62 SU (-25.93 units, ROI: -25.4%).
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+167 at LAD)

– The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring seven runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same series win in which they scored six runs or more, as those teams are just 26-39 SU (-19.32 units, ROI: -29.7%) since 2015, including 3-6 since the start of last year.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-116 at SEA)

– Game 4 underdogs are on a big run of 26-17 SU (+15.76 units, ROI: -36.7%) and 30-13 RL (+9.45 units, ROI: 22%) run since 2003 in the LCS round.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

–  Game 4 teams trailing in their LCS series have really struggled of late, going 12-28 SU (-21.49 units, ROI: -53.7%) and 13-27 (-18.85 units, ROI: -47.1%) on run lines since 2005
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE

–  On Game 4 totals, Overs have been huge since 2006, going 31-7-1 for +23.3 units, an ROI of 61.3%.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-LAD (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game. 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outingYou’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,974-2,513 (44%) for -243.05 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+167 at LAD)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 137-135 (-52.36 units, ROI: -19.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-205 vs MIL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season longPerhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2% (9-10 for -0.09 units in the ’25 playoffs).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-105 vs TOR), MILWAUKEE (+167 at LAD) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaksI have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For 2025, they were an uncustomary 220-211 for +18.9 units (ROI 4.4%) (1-1, +0.00 units in the 2025 playoffs). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so the 2025 results of 107-100 for +3.03 units were disappointing (2-2 for -0.52 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TORONTO (-116 at SEA), 3+ games – LA DODGERS (-205 vs MIL) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaksAlthough it lost -5.28 units in 2025, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2025 disappointing results aside, I will continue to track this one in 2026 as well. (1-1, -0.67 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+167 at LAD)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): TORONTO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, LA DODGERS

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Match: MILWAUKEE +167 (+24 diff)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Match: TOR-SEA OVER 7 (+0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(961) MILWAUKEE (100-70) at (962) LOS ANGELES-NL (101-70)Trend: MIL is 35-20 (+5.67 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+1.5 at LAD)

Trend: LAD pitching has been on a roll, giving up only four runs in their last 37 innings
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-205 vs MIL) 

(963) TORONTO (99-71) at (964) SEATTLE (95-76)Trend: TOR is 66-43 (+7.28 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-116 at SEA)

Trend: Kevin Gausman has a 4.67 ERA in 27 innings across six postseason appearances since 2021
Trend Match (SLIGHT FADE): TORONTO (-116 at SEA)

Trend: SEA is just 4-12 (-9.10 units) vs AL East teams with starter Bryce Miller since 2023
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-105 vs TOR) 

Series #1: Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
Trend: Road teams are on 12-2 (85.7%, +11.73 units) surge in the SEA-TOR series
– The ROI on this trend is 83.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-116 at SEA)

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