Ole Miss vs. Georgia

Saturday’s SEC clash between Ole Miss and Georgia on October 18 features major playoff implications. The Bulldogs, who already have one loss, aren’t in a position to add another at this point in the year. However, Lane Kiffin’s undefeated Rebels bring an explosive offense capable of keeping things interesting in Athens — and a road win here would give Ole Miss a case to be called the nation’s best team. This Ole Miss vs. Georgia betting preview breaks down the latest odds, key matchups, and best wagers for Saturday’s matchup.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of October 17, 4:30 pm ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits.

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Ole Miss Rebels at Georgia Bulldogs (-7, 56.5)

Saturday, October 18 at 3:30 pm ET

Ole Miss has struggled as a road underdog under Lane Kiffin, going 2-6 both straight-up and against the spread. The Rebels are also 2-4 both SU and ATS as road underdogs of 7 or fewer under Kiffin. With that in mind, Ole Miss will have to exorcise some demons here. However, this is arguably the best team Kiffin has ever had, and there are some real reasons to like the Rebels.

For starters, Ole Miss has been better than Georgia this year. The Rebels are 29th in the nation in Net EPA per play (0.19); the Bulldogs are 39th (0.16). Also, for seemingly the first time in the Kiffin era, Ole Miss has an elite defense to match an elite offense. Pete Golding has the Rebels at 22nd in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.04), and the passing defense has been a real strength. Ole Miss is 22nd in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.19), and that’s hard to ignore considering Gunner Stockton isn’t all that dangerous as a passer. He has thrown for 217 or fewer passing yards in three straight games, and he has only two passing touchdowns in that time. If Stockton doesn’t step up and deliver with his arm, how will Georgia keep pace with Trinidad Chambliss and the Ole Miss offense?

Kirby Smart’s teams are always good defensively, but the Dawgs are just 84th in the nation in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.07). That’s extremely problematic against this version of the Rebels. If Chambliss is able to comfortably hit receivers without having to fit the ball into tight windows, this is absolutely a game that Ole Miss can win. Chambliss has thrown for at least 300 yards in three of his last four games, and he’s also one of the most electric running quarterbacks in the country. That’ll make it harder on Georgia to just focus on regular pass coverage.

It’s also worth noting that there are some trends that favor the Rebels. While Kiffin hasn’t delivered often as a road underdog, Ole Miss is 11-6 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 75.0% or higher under him. Meanwhile, Georgia is 16-19-1 ATS when facing teams that average at least 250.0 passing yards under Smart. And that one feels especially relevant here, as the Bulldogs and their weak passing game will be up against the dangerous Rebels passing game.

It’s not often that you get points with a better football team, and it’s even rarer that you get more than a touchdown. I’m taking Ole Miss to cover, and I’m also playing some moneyline. Our analytics guru Steve Makinen had a projected line of Georgia -3.3 here. There’s a ton of value in backing the road team. This is one of my Week 8 best bets.

Bet: Ole Miss +7.5 (-110 – 1.5 units) & Ole Miss ML (+235 – 0.5 units)

Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 8 games on our Pro Picks Page.

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