Burke: NFL Player Props for Week 7

NFL Player Props

We’re approaching late October, which means that paying more and more attention to the weather is essential. Not only for betting sides and totals, but also for betting NFL player props. A windy day is going to change the gameplan in a big way. Rain and snow will have an impact, too, but as the old adage goes, “wide receivers know where they’re going and defenders don’t” so it might be a benefit to the offense. We have a couple wind games to think about with the Week 7 NFL player prop bets.

That means we’re finally seeing the third tenet of my prop handicapping, with injury and game state being the other two. Mother Nature should only get more impactful from here on out. Players are always capable of adapting and evolving, but coaches and play-callers are going to plan for the weather as much as they can and that will impact stat lines. And it especially helps you as the bettor if you can isolate weather forecasts early and jump on Unders (or running back Overs) before the market moves them.

We also have a new and exciting tool here at VSiN, as OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.

And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.

As always, shop around for these Week 7 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 2:00 p.m. PT on Friday, October 17 and are from DraftKings.

Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.

Here are some Player Props NFL Week 7:

Jerry Jeudy (CLE) Under 3.5 Receptions (-129)

Juicy, as the market has picked up on this already, but I think there’s some meat on the bone and we aren’t just gathering up scraps here. The Browns have been blown out three times this season and those games have accounted for 30 of Jeudy’s 48 targets over six games. In two of the other games, he had one catch (Packers) and two catches (Vikings). He only had a 38.5% Catch% last game against the Steelers and actually has just a 41.7% Catch% on the season and a 38.9% Catch% (7/18) since Dillon Gabriel took over.

Jeudy’s % Share of Team’s Air Yards per NFL Next Gen Stats is 39.2%, the ninth-highest and most of the guys ahead of him are awesome receivers. He’s not and has a poor QB throwing to him. Add in the weather this week and it’s tough to see him get touches. The Browns may go with a lot of two TE sets and will be looking for short throws to Harold Fannin Jr. and third-string TE Blke Whiteheart as probably more of a run blocker, so not looking to go vertical. And there’s some projection here going with receptions over receiving yards because he could break one on a missed tackle with the safeties cheating up due to the wind.

Opta AI says 3.72 receptions, but I’m not sure how much the projections take into account very extreme weather.

Saints/Bears Longest Field Goal Under 50.5 Yards (-120)

A player prop in a way, as I’m looking to go against both Blake Grupe and Jake Moody. The other wind game this week, though not to the degree of Cleveland, is in Chicago between the Bears and Saints. Sustained gusts of 15+ are forecasted and gusts of 30+ could be in play.

Moody went 4-for-5 after getting signed off the street to replace Cairo Santos. He was good from 47, 48, 41, and 38, including the game-winning kick. His miss was actually blocked. Nevertheless, these are going to be some tough kicking conditions. Ben Johnson also strikes me as a “go for it” guy. I know it wasn’t always his call, but the Lions were 4th, 2nd, and 3rd in fourth down attempts while he was the OC. Moody is not exactly accustomed to kicking at Soldier Field.

Grupe is 3-for-5 from 50+ this season and has tried a league-high 19 FG. He is an 80% FG kicker on the road compared to an 83% kicker at home, going 19-of-23 outdoors in his career. Overall, Grupe is 15-of-22 from 50+, going 5-for-10 on the road. I’ll take my chances here with a very reasonable -120 line.

For more NFL Kicker Prop Bets, see Pauly Howard’s Week 7 Picks.

Daniel Jones (IND) Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-109)

The line implies that this should be a tight game, so the game state shouldn’t favor Indy having to throw the ball a ton. At least that’s my hope. Second, the Chargers rank eighth in EPA/play on defense and fourth in Success Rate per RBSDM. But, let’s look a little deeper there…

The Chargers are sixth in Dropback EPA against and second in Dropback Success Rate against. They’ve been a very, very good defense against the pass. They are tied for seventh in sacks with only an 18.2% Blitz% per Pro-Football-Reference. My thought here is that the Colts aren’t thinking about throwing the ball a ton in this game unless the game state forces them into it.

Because the Chargers, for all of their impressive numbers against the pass, have not defended the run well. On a basic level, they’ve allowed the fifth-most yards per carry at 5.0. On a more advanced level, they are 22nd in Rush EPA against and 20th in Rushing Success Rate against. The Colts lead the league in Rush EPA and are fifth in Rushing Success Rate. If anything, we might see Jones more involved as a runner, seeing as how the Chargers have allowed the second-most rushing yards to QB at 207.

Opta AI has Jones down for 33.43 pass attempts.

Visit the NFL Hub for all of our Week 7 NFL content and see more NFL Player Prop Picks on our Pro Picks page.

The post Burke: NFL Player Props for Week 7 appeared first on VSiN.