Week 9 College Football
Keeping up with college football power ratings is a good way not to overreact to what we’ve most recently seen, but there are some teams that are very, very difficult to gauge right now. I’ve spent a lot of time talking about how there’s a lot of parity with the dispersal of talent these days, but I’m not talking about weekly inconsistency. I’m talking about teams that have fired coaches, are likely to fire coaches, or otherwise have uncomfortable situations that have players thinking about where they’re going to go in the transfer portal for next season. I’ve tried to account for some of that in my Week 9 College Football Power Ratings.
But, the honest reality is that we don’t really know how a lot of these players think or feel. In some instances, they may feel responsible when coaches get canned. In other instances, they’re probably rejoicing that a coach was shown the door. Because we don’t have nearly as much access to the college players as we do the NFL ones, the quotes aren’t always as telling. But, the effort level on the field certainly can be. Then we have to try to figure out if a team will pull an UCLA and suddenly wake up or if the coach getting pink slipped is merely another raindrop to a raging flood.
The games themselves are still very valuable, as bowl eligibility, conference hardware, and spots in the College Football Playoff are up for grabs, but not everybody has those same motivations now. And it might absolutely be more lucrative for a player to get a bag somewhere else rather than stay or be a fifth-round draft pick or something. Those are things that we have to consider when getting deeper into the game. The function of power ratings remains to try and get some line value early before the market moves.
And the market has still been very active and will continue to be. The NBA starts on Tuesday and we’ll have a very soft early-season college basketball betting market in a couple of weeks. Those will take away some interest in college football. But, there are plenty of dollars and bettors to go around. I’ll still be covering college football until the end, including these weekly power ratings updates.
Week 9 College Football Power Ratings
| Rank | Team | PR | HFA |
| 1 | Ohio State | 92.5 | 3.5 |
| 2 | Oregon | 90.5 | 3.5 |
| 3 | Alabama | 89.5 | 3.5 |
| 4 | Indiana | 88.5 | 2.5 |
| 5 | Georgia | 87.5 | 3 |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 87 | 3 |
| 7 | Texas Tech | 85 | 3 |
| 8 | Miami (Florida) | 84 | 2 |
| 9 | Texas A&M | 84 | 2 |
| 10 | Texas | 83.5 | 3.5 |
| 11 | Missouri | 83 | 3.5 |
| 12 | Utah | 83 | 3 |
| 13 | Mississippi | 81.5 | 3 |
| 14 | Vanderbilt | 81.5 | 1.5 |
| 15 | USC | 81 | 3 |
| 16 | Michigan | 80.5 | 3 |
| 17 | Oklahoma | 80.5 | 3 |
| 18 | Tennessee | 80.5 | 3.5 |
| 19 | Arizona State | 78.5 | 2 |
| 20 | LSU | 78 | 3.5 |
| 21 | BYU | 77.5 | 2 |
| 22 | Penn State | 77.5 | 3.5 |
| 23 | Florida | 77 | 2 |
| 24 | Auburn | 76.5 | 2 |
| 25 | Clemson | 76.5 | 2.5 |
| 26 | Washington | 76.5 | 3.5 |
| 27 | Cincinnati | 75.5 | 1.5 |
| 28 | Georgia Tech | 75.5 | 2 |
| 29 | Iowa | 75.5 | 3 |
| 30 | Louisville | 75 | 3.5 |
| 31 | Pittsburgh | 74 | 2 |
| 32 | TCU | 74 | 3 |
| 33 | Arkansas | 73.5 | 2 |
| 34 | Mississippi State | 73 | 2 |
| 35 | Arizona | 72.5 | 2 |
| 36 | Illinois | 72.5 | 2 |
| 37 | Nebraska | 72.5 | 2 |
| 38 | Iowa State | 72 | 2 |
| 39 | South Florida | 72 | 1.5 |
| 40 | Baylor | 71.5 | 2 |
| 41 | SMU | 71.5 | 3.5 |
| 42 | South Carolina | 71.5 | 2.5 |
| 43 | Florida State | 71 | 2 |
| 44 | Boise State | 70.5 | 3.5 |
| 45 | Duke | 70.5 | 3.5 |
| 46 | Houston | 70.5 | 2 |
| 47 | Kentucky | 69.5 | 2 |
| 48 | Minnesota | 69.5 | 2 |
| 49 | Colorado | 69 | 2 |
| 50 | Kansas | 69 | 2.5 |
| 51 | Kansas State | 69 | 3.5 |
| 52 | Memphis | 68.5 | 2.5 |
| 53 | Rutgers | 68.5 | 2 |
| 54 | Virginia | 68.5 | 2 |
| 55 | James Madison | 67 | 3 |
| 56 | Tulane | 67 | 2.5 |
| 57 | Navy | 66 | 2 |
| 58 | Northwestern | 66 | 1.5 |
| 59 | UCLA | 66 | 2 |
| 60 | East Carolina | 65.5 | 2 |
| 61 | Maryland | 65.5 | 2 |
| 62 | North Carolina State | 65.5 | 2 |
| 63 | UCF | 65.5 | 2 |
| 64 | North Texas | 65 | 2 |
| 65 | Michigan State | 64 | 2 |
| 66 | Wake Forest | 64 | 2 |
| 67 | Purdue | 63.5 | 1 |
| 68 | Virginia Tech | 63.5 | 2 |
| 69 | Wisconsin | 63 | 2 |
| 70 | Old Dominion | 62.5 | 1.5 |
| 71 | Toledo | 62.5 | 3 |
| 72 | California | 61.5 | 2 |
| 73 | Hawai’i | 60.5 | 2 |
| 74 | Connecticut | 60 | 2.5 |
| 75 | Southern Mississippi | 60 | 2 |
| 76 | UNLV | 60 | 2.5 |
| 77 | Utah State | 59 | 2 |
| 78 | Army | 58.5 | 2.5 |
| 79 | San Diego State | 58.5 | 2 |
| 80 | Syracuse | 58.5 | 2.5 |
| 81 | Miami (Ohio) | 58 | 2.5 |
| 82 | UTSA | 58 | 3.5 |
| 83 | New Mexico | 57.5 | 2 |
| 84 | Temple | 57.5 | 2 |
| 85 | Fresno State | 57 | 2 |
| 86 | San Jose State | 57 | 2.5 |
| 87 | Air Force | 56.5 | 2 |
| 88 | North Carolina | 56.5 | 2 |
| 89 | Ohio | 56.5 | 3.5 |
| 90 | Texas State | 56.5 | 2 |
| 91 | West Virginia | 56 | 2 |
| 92 | Boston College | 55.5 | 2 |
| 93 | Louisiana Tech | 54.5 | 2 |
| 94 | Troy | 54.5 | 3 |
| 95 | Western Kentucky | 54.5 | 2.5 |
| 96 | Stanford | 54 | 1 |
| 97 | Delaware | 53.5 | 3 |
| 98 | South Alabama | 53.5 | 2 |
| 99 | Wyoming | 53.5 | 2 |
| 100 | Central Michigan | 53 | 2 |
| 101 | Marshall | 53 | 3 |
| 102 | Washington State | 53 | 3 |
| 103 | Kennesaw State | 52.5 | 1.5 |
| 104 | Oregon State | 52.5 | 3.5 |
| 105 | Bowling Green | 52 | 2 |
| 106 | Florida Atlantic | 52 | 2 |
| 107 | Florida International | 52 | 2 |
| 108 | Jacksonville State | 52 | 3.5 |
| 109 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 51.5 | 2 |
| 110 | Tulsa | 51.5 | 1 |
| 111 | Colorado State | 51 | 2 |
| 112 | UAB | 51 | 2.5 |
| 113 | Arkansas State | 50.5 | 2 |
| 114 | Georgia Southern | 50.5 | 3.5 |
| 115 | Western Michigan | 50.5 | 2 |
| 116 | Rice | 50 | 3 |
| 117 | Appalachian State | 49.5 | 2 |
| 118 | Buffalo | 48.5 | 2 |
| 119 | Oklahoma State | 48 | 2 |
| 120 | Eastern Michigan | 47.5 | 2 |
| 121 | Liberty | 47 | 3 |
| 122 | Nevada | 47 | 1 |
| 123 | Northern Illinois | 47 | 1 |
| 124 | Coastal Carolina | 46.5 | 2 |
| 125 | UTEP | 46 | 2 |
| 126 | Georgia State | 45.5 | 1 |
| 127 | Missouri State | 44.5 | 2 |
| 128 | Louisiana-Monroe | 44 | 2 |
| 129 | Akron | 42.5 | 2 |
| 130 | New Mexico State | 42.5 | 2.5 |
| 131 | Sam Houston State | 42 | 0.5 |
| 132 | Ball State | 41.5 | 2.5 |
| 133 | Middle Tennessee | 41.5 | 2 |
| 134 | Charlotte | 40.5 | 1 |
| 135 | Kent State | 39 | 1 |
| 136 | Massachusetts | 33.5 | 1 |
Here are my Week 9 power ratings adjustments:
Up: FIU +1, UTEP +1, East Carolina +1.5, Louisville +1.5, San Jose State +1.5, South Florida +2, Temple +2, UConn +3.5, Georgia Tech +1.5, Marshall +2.5, Pitt +2.5, Central Michigan +1.5, Northwestern +2.5, Vanderbilt +2, Boise State +1.5, UCLA +2.5, Houston +2.5, Army +1, Arkansas +1, Cincinnati +1.5, UAB +3.5, Kentucky +1.5, Washington State +1.5, Notre Dame +2, Arkansas State +1, North Carolina +1, Georgia +1, Coastal Carolina +1.5, James Madison +1.5, Kennesaw State +3, Ball State +2
Down: Liberty -3, Western Kentucky -1, Sam Houston -2.5, Tulsa -1, Miami (FL) -2.5, Utah State -1.5, Cal -1.5, Buffalo -3, West Virginia -2.5, Northern Illinois -2.5, Old Dominion -1.5, South Carolina -2.5, Boston College -4.5, Texas State -4, Syracuse -1.5, LSU -2.5, UNLV -1.5, Maryland -1.5, Tulane -1, Texas A&M -1.5, Oklahoma State -2.5, Texas -1.5, Virginia -2, USC -1.5, Florida State -4, Auburn -1.5, Memphis -3 (Lewis inj, doubtful, -5 if out), UL Monroe -2.5, Georgia Southern -3, Charlotte -3, Rice -2, Nebraska -3.5, Wisconsin -3
Some notes on the biggest movers:
UConn +3.5: A market correction here, as my line for their game this week was pretty far off-market. I kept a lot of my games that were significantly off-market, but I guess I felt compelled to adjust this team.
UAB +3.5: UAB made a QB change and fired Trent Dilfer and beat a very good Memphis team. Tigers QB Brendon Lewis did get hurt, and more on that shortly, but still a huge win for a team that looked so lifeless. Maybe they do a UCLA the rest of the way.
Kennesaw State +3: Market adjustment, though this team has been playing better of late for sure.
Boston College -4.5: I thought I was low enough on the Eagles, but I guess not. I wonder if Bill O’Brien will be fired.
Florida State -4: Jay Norvell got fired on Sunday. Many felt it would be Mike Norvell. It probably will be soon enough. This would have been more if the Seminoles played in light of Tommy Castellanos’ concussion, but they have a bye.
Texas State -4: This has been building for a while. I’m not sure what has happened to GJ Kinne’s team, but they are just not buttoned up this season. Giving up a 40 burger to Marshall, OT or not, is a bad look.
Nebraska -3.5: The Matt Rhule Year 3 bump seems to have evaded Lincoln. Not a good look for him if Penn State was watching closely.
Memphis -3: A bunch of -3s this week, but I’m only highlighting this one. Memphis suffered a very, very, very bad loss to UAB, as they were in the driver’s seat for the G5 CFP berth. Now they run the risk of going into a huge game with South Florida without their starting QB. It looks like I’m light on the adjustments to both teams, or maybe I’m too optimistic about Lewis’ status. He probably won’t play, to be honest.
Embed from Getty ImagesMy Week 9 College Football Lines
(note: games are ordered by rotation number)
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Line |
| 10/21 | Kennesaw State | FIU | -1.5 |
| Western Kentucky | Louisiana Tech | -2 | |
| 10/22 | Middle Tennessee | Delaware | -15 |
| Missouri State | New Mexico State | -0.5 | |
| 10/23 | South Alabama | Georgia State | +7 |
| 10/24 | North Texas | Charlotte | +23.5 |
| Cal | Virginia Tech | -4 | |
| Boise State | Nevada | +22.5 | |
| 10/25 | UConn | Rice | +8 |
| Akron | Buffalo | -8 | |
| Baylor | Cincinnati | -5.5 | |
| UMass | Central Michigan | -21.5 | |
| TCU | West Virginia | +16 | |
| Syracuse | Georgia Tech | -19 | |
| UCLA | Indiana | -25 | |
| Boston College | Louisville | -23 | |
| Stanford | Miami (FL) | -32 | |
| Michigan | Michigan State | +14.5 | |
| Virginia | North Carolina | +10 | |
| NC State | Pitt | -10.5 | |
| Rutgers | Purdue | +4 | |
| SMU | Wake Forest | +5.5 | |
| Louisiana | Troy | -6 | |
| Mississippi | Oklahoma | -2 | |
| Ohio | Eastern Michigan | +7 | |
| Bowling Green | Kent State | +12 | |
| Western Michigan | Miami (OH) | -10 | |
| Ball State | Northern Illinois | -6.5 | |
| Northwestern | Nebraska | -8.5 | |
| Auburn | Arkansas | +1 | |
| App State | Old Dominion | -14.5 | |
| Minnesota | Iowa | -9 | |
| Kansas State | Kansas | -2.5 | |
| UL Monroe | Southern Miss | -18 | |
| Utah State | New Mexico | -0.5 | |
| Colorado | Utah | -17 | |
| Texas | Mississippi State | +8.5 | |
| San Diego State | Fresno State | -0.5 | |
| Texas A&M | LSU | +2.5 | |
| Temple | Tulsa | +5 | |
| Missouri | Vanderbilt | PK | |
| BYU | Iowa State | +3.5 | |
| Alabama | South Carolina | +15.5 | |
| South Florida | Memphis (w/ Lewis) | +1 | |
| Wisconsin | Oregon | -31 | |
| Oklahoma State | Texas Tech | -40 | |
| Illinois | Washington | -7.5 | |
| Houston | Arizona State | -10 | |
| FAU | Navy | -16 | |
| Toledo | Washington State | +6.5 | |
| Georgia Southern | Arkansas State | -2 | |
| Tennessee | Kentucky | +9 | |
| Colorado State | Wyoming | -4.5 |
Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:
Delaware -10 (-15) vs. Middle Tennessee: Delaware keeps putting up impressive passing yardage numbers, even in losses. I’m not sure Middle Tennessee has done anything impressive this season.
Akron +10.5 (+8) vs. Buffalo: Buffalo nearly lost to UMass. Should have lost to UMass. I’m sorry, I know Akron’s bad, but 10.5 or 11s were available on Sunday.
Central Michigan -16 (-21.5) vs. UMass: Central Michigan manhandled Bowling Green and won 27-6 with just five pass attempts. You mean to tell me they won’t push UMass around while running out the clock in the second half?
Miami (OH) -2 (-10) vs. Western Michigan: I’m not sure what happened here, if I’m being honest. The RedHawks are crushing inferior teams and the Broncos are an inferior team. I know they’re 3-0 in conference too and they’ve been playing better since they settled on one QB, but I think this line is way too short.
Southern Miss -12 (-18) vs. UL Monroe: I really do like Bryant Vincent, but over the last two weeks, they’ve been beaten 60-22 by Coastal Carolina, a team I’ve been very low on all year, and Troy. They’re worse than I thought.
BYU -3.5 (+2.5) vs. Iowa State: BYU was a little bit of a wrong-side winner per the box score, but they pulled it out against Utah. Big rest advantage here for Iowa State, but they really haven’t impressed me at all this season. Even their wins, outside of Arizona, have been mid.
Toledo +1.5 (-6) vs. Washington State: Another one where I’m not totally sure what happened. Toledo did lose to Bowling Green and that loss looks really bad in light of last week, but Toledo comfortably won that box score. The travel is obviously super weird for the Rockets. I don’t know. Most of my MAC lines are a little bit odd this week, which is probably indicative of how much the conference stinks.
I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.
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