Week 10 College Football

We’re into double digits for the college football season now. Week 10 college football power ratings sure have changed a lot from where they were back in Week 1. Obviously that’s to be expected, especially in an era with such extreme roster turnover, but there have been some big surprises and some really big disappointments.

In terms of some of my biggest movements, here are the five largest:

Up: Vanderbilt +12.5, Indiana +11, San Diego State +11, Utah +9, South Florida +9

Down: Oklahoma State -15, Clemson -14, Boston College -13, Liberty -13, Penn State -12.5, Buffalo -12.5

All of those seem pretty warranted if you ask me. We’ll continue to see teams rise up and fall back over the final few weeks of the regular season. We’re in a really weird time of the season where some teams and coaches are planning for the future because they want to play some of their underclassmen in hopes that they stay. We’re also going to see some more head coaches let go and that will send ripples through the program. Power ratings are still valuable, but as we get deeper into the season, there can be more and more unquantifiable factors to a handicap, and we’re not really going to be privy to them because we’re not in the locker room.

All we can handicap is what we see and what we think. And I like having power ratings because they keep me more grounded instead of overreacting to different things. That’s why I keep doing them and also why I share them in hopes that they provide some help to the audience.

Week 10 College Football Power Ratings

Rank Team PR HFA
1 Ohio State 92.5 3.5
2 Oregon 90.5 3.5
3 Indiana 90 2.5
4 Alabama 88 3.5
5 Georgia 87.5 3
6 Notre Dame 87 3
7 Texas A&M 85.5 2
8 Vanderbilt 84 1.5
9 Texas 83.5 3.5
10 Miami (Florida) 83 2
11 Texas Tech 83 3
12 Utah 83 3
13 Mississippi 81.5 3
14 USC 81 3
15 Oklahoma 80.5 3
16 Tennessee 80.5 3.5
17 Michigan 79.5 3
18 Missouri 77.5 3.5
19 Penn State 77.5 3.5
20 Cincinnati 77 1.5
21 Florida 77 2
22 Georgia Tech 77 2
23 Iowa 77 3
24 Auburn 76.5 2
25 LSU 76.5 3.5
26 Washington 76.5 3.5
27 Arizona State 75 2
28 BYU 75 2
29 Iowa State 75 2
30 Louisville 75 3.5
31 Clemson 74 2.5
32 TCU 74 3
33 Duke 73 3.5
34 Houston 73 2
35 Mississippi State 73 2
36 Pittsburgh 73 2
37 Arizona 72.5 2
38 Illinois 72.5 2
39 Nebraska 72.5 2
40 South Florida 72 1.5
41 SMU 71.5 3.5
42 South Carolina 71.5 2.5
43 Florida State 71 2
44 Boise State 70.5 3.5
45 Memphis 70.5 2.5
46 Arkansas 70 2
47 Kentucky 69.5 2
48 Minnesota 69.5 2
49 Baylor 69 2
50 Kansas State 69 3.5
51 Rutgers 68.5 2
52 Virginia 68.5 2
53 Northwestern 67.5 1.5
54 James Madison 67 3
55 North Carolina State 67 2
56 Tulane 67 2.5
57 Colorado 66.5 2
58 Kansas 66.5 2.5
59 North Texas 66.5 2
60 Wake Forest 66.5 2
61 UCLA 66 2
62 East Carolina 65.5 2
63 Maryland 65.5 2
64 UCF 65.5 2
65 Navy 64.5 2
66 Michigan State 64 2
67 Purdue 63.5 1
68 San Diego State 63.5 2
69 Virginia Tech 63.5 2
70 Wisconsin 63 2
71 California 61.5 2
72 Toledo 61 3
73 Hawai’i 60.5 2
74 Old Dominion 60.5 1.5
75 Connecticut 60 2.5
76 New Mexico 60 2
77 Southern Mississippi 60 2
78 UNLV 60 2.5
79 Temple 59.5 2
80 Utah State 59 2
81 Army 58.5 2.5
82 Syracuse 58.5 2.5
83 Miami (Ohio) 58 2.5
84 North Carolina 58 2
85 UTSA 58 3.5
86 West Virginia 58 2
87 Fresno State 57 2
88 San Jose State 57 2.5
89 Air Force 56.5 2
90 Kennesaw State 56.5 1.5
91 Ohio 56.5 3.5
92 Texas State 56.5 2
93 Troy 56 3
94 Washington State 56 3
95 Boston College 55.5 2
96 Stanford 55.5 1
97 South Alabama 55 2
98 Wyoming 55 2
99 Louisiana Tech 54.5 2
100 Florida Atlantic 53.5 2
101 Western Michigan 53.5 2
102 Marshall 53 3
103 Oregon State 52.5 3.5
104 Jacksonville State 52 3.5
105 Western Kentucky 52 2.5
106 Central Michigan 51.5 2
107 Louisiana-Lafayette 51.5 2
108 Tulsa 51.5 1
109 UAB 51 2.5
110 Arkansas State 50.5 2
111 Georgia Southern 50.5 3.5
112 Delaware 50 3
113 Rice 50 3
114 Appalachian State 49.5 2
115 Colorado State 49.5 2
116 Florida International 49.5 2
117 Bowling Green 48 2
118 Oklahoma State 48 2
119 Georgia State 47 1
120 Liberty 47 3
121 Missouri State 47 2
122 Nevada 47 1
123 Northern Illinois 47 1
124 Buffalo 46.5 2
125 Coastal Carolina 46.5 2
126 Eastern Michigan 46 2
127 UTEP 46 2
128 Louisiana-Monroe 44 2
129 Middle Tennessee 44 2
130 Akron 42.5 2
131 New Mexico State 42.5 2.5
132 Kent State 42 1
133 Sam Houston State 42 0.5
134 Ball State 41.5 2.5
135 Charlotte 39 1
136 Massachusetts 33.5 1

Here are my Week 10 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Kennesaw State +4, Middle Tennessee +2.5, North Texas +1.5, West Virginia +2, Indiana +1.5, Stanford +1.5, North Carolina +1.5, NC State +1.5, Troy +1.5, Kent State +3, Western Michigan +3, Northwestern +1.5, New Mexico +2.5, San Diego State +5, Texas A&M +1.5, Vanderbilt +2.5, Houston +2.5, FAU +1.5, Washington State +3, Wyoming +1.5, South Alabama +1.5, Georgia State +1.5, Georgia Tech +1.5, Memphis +2, Iowa +1.5, Temple +2, Missouri State +2.5, Wake Forest +2.5, Duke +2.5, Iowa State +3, Cincinnati +1.5

Down: FIU -2.5, Delaware -3.5, Charlotte -1.5, Buffalo -2, Central Michigan -1.5, Miami (FL) -1, Michigan -1, Pitt -1, Eastern Michigan -1.5, Bowling Green -4, Arkansas -3.5, Old Dominion -2, Kansas -2.5, LSU -1.5, Missouri -5.5 (Pribula inj.), BYU -2.5, Alabama -1.5, Texas Tech -2, Arizona State -3.5, Navy -1.5, Toledo -1.5, Colorado State -1.5, Colorado -2.5, Clemson -2.5, Baylor -2.5, Western Kentucky -2.5

Some notes on the biggest movers:

San Diego State +5: I’ve been a little bit slow to adjust the Aztecs, but after another resounding win, it was time to do something a little more drastic than just a couple of points.

Kennesaw State +4: This is both a market adjustment and also a bit of respect for the Owls, who have been playing really well for Jerry Mack in what I expected to be a very tough year.

Western Michigan +3: Not a great showing for the Broncos this week, but their defense does have an impressive set of numbers and I think I’ve been neglecting that a little too much.

Washington State +3: Bit of a market correction here, as I was way off on Toledo/Washington State. I’m still low on the Cougars it appears based on this week’s line against Oregon State.

Iowa State +3: I’ve had a hard time gauging this team over the course of the season. I had BYU a road favorite last week and while the Cougars did win, the Cyclones largely gave them the game.

Missouri -5.5: An ugly leg injury suffered by Beau Pribula definitely hurts the team moving forward. We’ll see if 5.5 is right or not.

Bowling Green -4: The MAC has been a moving target for me, as none of these teams are any good, but some will look good one week and not the next. Bowling Green is a team I’ve been too high on for a couple of weeks now.

Arkansas -3.5: Taylen Green is good. The rest of the team is not.

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Arizona State -3.5: I’ve been too optimistic on ASU for a while now. I dug my heels in following the win over Baylor, but this is the week I’ve decided to stop being stubborn. Also, Jordyn Tyson might be the most valuable WR not named Jeremiah Smith in CFB this season.

Delaware -3.5: A team I got a little eager on. I still think they’re decent, but they are not good on defense at all.

My Week 10 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date Away Team Home Team Line
10/28 UTEP Kennesaw State -12
  James Madison Texas State +8.5
       
10/29 Jacksonville State Middle Tennessee +6
  FIU Missouri State +0.5
       
10/30 Marshall Coastal Carolina +4.5
  Tulane UTSA +5.5
       
10/31 Memphis Rice +17.5
  North Carolina Syracuse -3
  Sam Houston Louisiana Tech -14.5
       
11/1 Louisiana South Alabama -5.5
  East Carolina Temple +4
  Oklahoma Tennessee -3.5
  Notre Dame Boston College +29.5
  Duke Clemson -3.5
  Wake Forest Florida State -6.5
  Indiana Maryland +22.5
  Purdue Michigan -19
  Georgia Tech NC State +8
  Penn State Ohio State -18.5
  Louisville Virginia Tech +9.5
  Buffalo Bowling Green -3.5
  Central Michigan Western Michigan -4
  Army Air Force PK
  Vanderbilt Texas (w/ Manning) -3
  Rutgers Illinois -6
  Michigan State Minnesota -7.5
  Arizona State Iowa State -2
  UAB UConn -11.5
  UCF Baylor -5.5
  Fresno State Boise State -17
  Cincinnati Utah (w/ Dampier) -9
  Arizona Colorado +4
  Washington State Oregon State PK
  Virginia Cal +5
  New Mexico UNLV -2.5
  Pitt Stanford +16.5
  Texas Tech Kansas State +10.5
  Arkansas State Troy -8.5
  Miami (FL) SMU +8
  West Virginia Houston -17
  Kentucky Auburn -9
  Mississippi State Arkansas +1
  Navy North Texas -4
  Old Dominion UL Monroe +14.5
  Oklahoma State Kansas -21
  USC Nebraska +6.5
  South Carolina Mississippi -13
  Delaware Liberty PK
  New Mexico State Western Kentucky -12
  Georgia Florida (N – Jax’ville) +10.5
  Wyoming San Diego State -10.5
  Hawaii San Jose State +1

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

FIU +4 (-0.5) at Missouri State: FIU was great against Western Kentucky and then bad against Kennesaw State. They did have over 500 yards of offense in that game, so maybe they weren’t as bad as it seems. Guess we’ll see.

Rutgers +13 (+6) at Illinois: Maybe I’m too low on Illinois, but I also don’t think they’ve done anything special this season despite all of the offseason hype. 

Minnesota -5 (-7.5) vs. Michigan State: The Spartans are not good at all. The market has strongly disliked Minnesota a couple of weeks in a row. Might get a better price on this one. Jonathan Smith has been a real dud in East Lansing. I can’t believe they didn’t go get a QB last offseason.

Mississippi State +4 (-1) at Arkansas: The Razorbacks were in great shape last week and gave the game away to a subpar Auburn team. Mississippi State’s collapse to Texas is going to be hard for the Bulldogs to overcome, but they have a chance at a good road win here.

Georgia -7.5 (-10.5) vs. Florida: The neutral-site Cocktail Party here. Both teams are off of a bye. I just don’t think DJ Lagway is very good and who knows how Florida looks after the firing of Billy Napier.

Hawaii +2 (-1) vs. San Jose State: Hawaii’s a very good team and they get punished in the betting market anytime they are coming to the mainland. I had them a road favorite at Colorado State and they weren’t. I have them a road favorite here. I’ll trust ‘em.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.

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