Week 11 College Football

The first College Football Playoff Rankings come out on Tuesday, which is a good reminder of how much these games matter from here on out. Miami and Georgia Tech suffered major setbacks on the road last week, while Georgia tried to have one in Jacksonville. Vanderbilt’s CFP hopes were dashed, despite a valiant comeback effort against Texas. Cincinnati still has a path to win the Big 12, but getting blasted by Utah won’t help their case moving forward.

We found out a lot about some teams last week and will do the same again this week, as LSU plays for the first time without Brian Kelly, Auburn takes the field without Hugh Freeze, and QB injuries for Boise State and Nebraska have altered the outlooks for the remainder of their seasons.

We have a really good data set for each team now, which should statistically help the case for having efficient power ratings, but it is also imperative to consider whether or not the teams are improving or declining and also what the situation is within the program. Coaches on hot seats can be huge distractions. Some older QBs may get benched in favor of one of the program’s future cornerstones. Some players will be thinking about their next destinations in the transfer portal.

So, power ratings are still valuable, especially in terms of trying to get in front of the market and get some line value, but I find that my handicaps lean more towards the qualitative side once we hit November. Nevertheless, my numbers are updated for Week 11.

Week 11 College Football Power Ratings

Rank Team PR HFA
1 Ohio State 92.5 3.5
2 Oregon 90.5 3.5
3 Indiana 90 2.5
4 Alabama 88 3.5
5 Notre Dame 87 3
6 Georgia 86 3
7 Texas A&M 85.5 2
8 Utah 85.5 3
9 Vanderbilt 84 1.5
10 Texas 83.5 3.5
11 Miami (Florida) 83 2
12 Texas Tech 83 3
13 Oklahoma 82 3
14 Mississippi 81.5 3
15 USC 81 3
16 Michigan 79.5 3
17 Tennessee 79 3.5
18 Florida 78.5 2
19 Missouri 77.5 3.5
20 Penn State 77.5 3.5
21 Iowa 77 3
22 Auburn 76.5 2
23 LSU 76.5 3.5
24 Washington 76.5 3.5
25 Cincinnati 75.5 1.5
26 Georgia Tech 75.5 2
27 Illinois 75.5 2
28 Arizona State 75 2
29 BYU 75 2
30 Louisville 75 3.5
31 Florida State 74.5 2
32 Clemson 74 2.5
33 Duke 74 3.5
34 TCU 74 3
35 Mississippi State 73 2
36 Arizona 72.5 2
37 Iowa State 72 2
38 South Florida 72 1.5
39 Arkansas 71.5 2
40 Pittsburgh 71.5 2
41 SMU 71.5 3.5
42 Houston 70.5 2
43 Kansas State 70.5 3.5
44 Memphis 70.5 2.5
45 North Carolina State 70 2
46 South Carolina 70 2.5
47 Kentucky 69.5 2
48 Baylor 69 2
49 Nebraska 69 2
50 North Texas 68.5 2
51 Virginia 68.5 2
52 East Carolina 67.5 2
53 Northwestern 67.5 1.5
54 James Madison 67 3
55 San Diego State 67 2
56 Kansas 66.5 2.5
57 Boise State 66 3.5
58 Minnesota 66 2
59 UCLA 66 2
60 Maryland 65.5 2
61 Rutgers 65.5 2
62 UCF 65.5 2
63 Wake Forest 65 2
64 Navy 64.5 2
65 Tulane 64.5 2.5
66 Michigan State 64 2
67 Purdue 63.5 1
68 Virginia Tech 63.5 2
69 Wisconsin 63 2
70 West Virginia 62 2
71 Toledo 61 3
72 Colorado 60.5 2
73 Hawai’i 60.5 2
74 Old Dominion 60.5 1.5
75 Connecticut 60 2.5
76 New Mexico 60 2
77 Southern Mississippi 60 2
78 UNLV 60 2.5
79 North Carolina 59.5 2
80 Temple 59.5 2
81 California 59 2
82 San Jose State 59 2.5
83 Utah State 59 2
84 Army 58.5 2.5
85 Miami (Ohio) 58 2.5
86 UTSA 58 3.5
87 Fresno State 57 2
88 Air Force 56.5 2
89 Louisiana Tech 56.5 2
90 Ohio 56.5 3.5
91 Texas State 56.5 2
92 Washington State 56 3
93 Stanford 55.5 1
94 Kennesaw State 55 1.5
95 Troy 55 3
96 Wyoming 55 2
97 Syracuse 54.5 2.5
98 Boston College 54 2
99 Florida Atlantic 53.5 2
100 South Alabama 53.5 2
101 Western Michigan 53.5 2
102 Louisiana-Lafayette 53 2
103 Oregon State 52.5 3.5
104 Western Kentucky 52 2.5
105 Arkansas State 51.5 2
106 Central Michigan 51.5 2
107 Tulsa 51.5 1
108 Marshall 51 3
109 UAB 51 2.5
110 Coastal Carolina 50.5 2
111 Jacksonville State 50.5 3.5
112 Delaware 50 3
113 Liberty 50 3
114 Rice 50 3
115 Appalachian State 49.5 2
116 Colorado State 49.5 2
117 Missouri State 49 2
118 Georgia Southern 48 3.5
119 UTEP 47.5 2
120 Nevada 47 1
121 Northern Illinois 47 1
122 Buffalo 46.5 2
123 Florida International 46.5 2
124 Bowling Green 46 2
125 Eastern Michigan 46 2
126 Middle Tennessee 45.5 2
127 Oklahoma State 45 2
128 Georgia State 44.5 1
129 Louisiana-Monroe 44 2
130 New Mexico State 44 2.5
131 Akron 42.5 2
132 Kent State 42 1
133 Sam Houston State 42 0.5
134 Ball State 41.5 2.5
135 Charlotte 39 1
136 Massachusetts 33.5 1

Here are my Week 11 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Middle Tennessee +1.5, Missouri State +2, Coastal Carolina +4, North Carolina +1.5, Louisiana Tech +2, Louisiana +1.5, East Carolina +2, Oklahoma +1.5, Duke +1, Florida State +3.5, NC State +3, Illinois +3, Utah +2.5, Kansas State +1.5, Arkansas State +1, West Virginia +4, Arkansas +1.5, North Texas +2, Liberty +3, New Mexico State +1.5, Florida +1.5, San Jose State +2, UTEP +1.5, San Diego State +3.5 

Down: Jacksonville State -1.5, FIU -3, Marshall -2, Tulane -2.5, Syracuse -4, South Alabama -1.5, Tennessee -1.5, Boston College -1.5, Wake Forest -1.5, Georgia Tech -1.5, Bowling Green -2, Rutgers -3, Minnesota -3.5, Boise State -4.5 (Madsen), Cincinnati -1.5, Pitt -1.5, Troy -1, Houston -2.5, Oklahoma State -3, Nebraska -3.5 (Raiola), Georgia -1.5, Kennesaw State -1.5, South Carolina -1.5, Cal -2.5, Colorado -6, Georgia Southern -2.5, Georgia State -2.5, Iowa State -3

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Coastal Carolina +4: Not sure what has happened in Conway, but the Chanticleers have won three in a row and are one win away from bowl eligibility. I fully expected Tim Beck to get fired this season. That will not be the case.

West Virginia +4: Scotty Fox has injected some life into the Mountaineers offense. What a strong win against a very solid Houston team.

Florida State +3.5: I haven’t really known how to rate this team throughout the season, but it appears I had to make an adjustment to get closer to the market.

San Diego State +3.5: The Aztecs totally shut down Wyoming in a game where I liked the Cowboys. Credit where credit is due.

Colorado -6: This has to be it for Deion Sanders, right? The Buffaloes are awful, his kids are no longer there, and he blocked his players from interviews with the media after the last game. Just an all-around disaster right now.

Boise State -4.5: We’ll see if this is a big enough adjustment, but QB Maddux Madsen is done for a while, if not the year.

Syracuse -4: Rickie Collins posted a 6/8 TD/INT ratio in relief of injured Steve Angeli and that prompted head coach Fran Brown to give Joseph Filardi a look. He was 4-of-18 for 39 yards. Not great.

Nebraska -3.5: Dylan Raiola is also out for the year after breaking his fibula.

Minnesota -3.5: The Gophers beat the Spartans, but got very badly outgained in that one. The market has been against Minnesota several weeks in a row, so it was my turn to move them down.

My Week 11 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date Away Team Home Team Line
11/4 Miami (OH) Ohio -2
  UMass Akron -11
       
11/5 Kent State Ball State -2
  Northern Illinois Toledo -17
       
11/6 UTSA South Florida -15.5
  Georgia Southern App State -3.5
       
11/7 Houston UCF +3
  Tulane Memphis -8.5
  Northwestern USC -16.5
       
11/8 Charlotte East Carolina -30.5
  Tulsa Florida Atlantic -4
  Florida Kentucky +7
  Temple Army -1.5
  James Madison Marshall +13
  Georgia State Coastal Carolina -8
  Colorado West Virginia -3.5
  SMU Boston College +15.5
  Florida State Clemson -2
  Cal Louisville -19.5
  Syracuse Miami (FL) -30.5
  Stanford North Carolina -6
  Indiana Penn State +9
  Ohio State Purdue +28
  Maryland Rutgers -2
  Wake Forest Virginia -5.5
  Bowling Green Eastern Michigan -2
  Georgia Mississippi State +11
  Missouri State Liberty -4
  UAB Rice -2
  Iowa State TCU -5
  Texas A&M Missouri +4.5
  BYU Texas Tech -11
  Auburn Vanderbilt -9
  LSU Alabama -15
  Texas State Louisiana +1.5
  Oregon Iowa +10.5
  Washington Wisconsin +11.5
  UNLV Colorado State +8.5
  Kansas Arizona -8
  Louisiana Tech Delaware +3.5
  FIU Middle Tennessee -1
  Jacksonville State UTEP +1
  Air Force San Jose State -5
  Nebraska UCLA +1
  Duke UConn +11.5
  Southern Miss Arkansas State +6.5
  Kennesaw State New Mexico State +8.5
  Nevada Utah State -14
  Navy Notre Dame -25.5
  Sam Houston Oregon State -14
  San Diego State Hawaii +4.5

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

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Florida -3.5 (-7) vs. Kentucky: Feels like a cheap number here when Kentucky is stepping back up in talent level. They had all of 240 yards in the win over Auburn.

Temple +7 (+1) vs. Army: I really don’t think this Army team is very good and the Owls have been impressive under KC Keeler, who has seen the option a lot in his coaching tenure.

Georgia -7.5 (-11) vs. Mississippi State: The Bulldogs have been a plucky underdog this season, but Georgia will be the best opponent they’ve played since losing by 22 to Texas A&M.

Oregon -6 (-10.5) vs. Iowa: Perhaps I haven’t given Mark Gronowski enough love, as Iowa continues to have a solid defense, but I still think the offense is poor.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.

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