Week 12 College Football

Week 12 college football power ratings have been put together by both bettors and bookmakers and we’ve all spent Sunday comparing notes. That process will continue on into Monday and Tuesday before it starts becoming more about the matchup and the qualitative parts of the handicap.

As I hinted at last week, I weigh my power ratings less when we get to this point in the season because there are a lot of intangibles we have to consider. Are teams still invested and engaged? Are these inflations in the lines justified? Is the team that we have 11 weeks worth of data points still the same? In that, are they playing the same QB? Have more underclassmen been getting into games? Is the coach still there? The life cycle of a college football team really only lasts a handful of months now and you have to be fluid with your evaluations.

So, while I’m still using my numbers to try and get some line value on Sunday night and Monday morning, they’re less of a factor to me as the week goes along. Rolling with the punches, the news cycle, and the quotes that make their way around social media becomes even more important the deeper we get into November.

Nevertheless, I’ve studied the market moves, looked at the box scores, compared my numbers, and have made my adjustments to put together this week’s 1 to 136 for Week 12.

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Week 12 College Football Power Ratings

Rank Team PR HFA
1 Ohio State 92.5 3.5
2 Indiana 90 2.5
3 Notre Dame 88.5 3
4 Alabama 88 3.5
5 Texas A&M 87 2
6 Oregon 86.5 3.5
7 Georgia 86 3
8 Utah 85.5 3
9 Texas Tech 84.5 3
10 Vanderbilt 84 1.5
11 Texas 83.5 3.5
12 Miami (Florida) 83 2
13 Oklahoma 82 3
14 Mississippi 81.5 3
15 USC 81 3
16 Michigan 79.5 3
17 Iowa 79 3
18 Tennessee 79 3.5
19 Auburn 78 2
20 LSU 76.5 3.5
21 Missouri 76 3.5
22 Cincinnati 75.5 1.5
23 Georgia Tech 75.5 2
24 Illinois 75.5 2
25 Arizona State 75 2
26 BYU 75 2
27 Penn State 75 3.5
28 Washington 75 3.5
29 Clemson 74 2.5
30 Florida State 73 2
31 Iowa State 73 2
32 Mississippi State 73 2
33 TCU 73 3
34 Duke 72.5 3.5
35 Florida 72.5 2
36 Louisville 72.5 3.5
37 South Florida 72 1.5
38 Arkansas 71.5 2
39 Pittsburgh 71.5 2
40 SMU 71.5 3.5
41 Kentucky 71 2
42 Houston 70.5 2
43 Kansas State 70.5 3.5
44 Arizona 70 2
45 North Carolina State 70 2
46 South Carolina 70 2.5
47 Virginia 70 2
48 Baylor 69 2
49 Memphis 69 2.5
50 Nebraska 69 2
51 North Texas 68.5 2
52 Northwestern 68.5 1.5
53 Kansas 67.5 2.5
54 Tulane 67.5 2.5
55 James Madison 67 3
56 San Diego State 67 2
57 Boise State 66 3.5
58 East Carolina 66 2
59 Minnesota 66 2
60 UCLA 66 2
61 Rutgers 65.5 2
62 UCF 65.5 2
63 Wake Forest 65 2
64 Wisconsin 64.5 2
65 Michigan State 64 2
66 Connecticut 63.5 2.5
67 Maryland 63.5 2
68 Purdue 63.5 1
69 Virginia Tech 63.5 2
70 West Virginia 63.5 2
71 Navy 63 2
72 Army 61 2.5
73 Toledo 61 3
74 Hawai’i 60.5 2
75 Old Dominion 60.5 1.5
76 New Mexico 60 2
77 Southern Mississippi 60 2
78 UNLV 60 2.5
79 North Carolina 59.5 2
80 Temple 59.5 2
81 California 59 2
82 San Jose State 59 2.5
83 Utah State 59 2
84 Colorado 58 2
85 Miami (Ohio) 58 2.5
86 UTSA 58 3.5
87 Fresno State 57 2
88 Air Force 56.5 2
89 Kennesaw State 56.5 1.5
90 Louisiana Tech 56.5 2
91 Ohio 56.5 3.5
92 Washington State 56 3
93 Florida Atlantic 55.5 2
94 Stanford 55.5 1
95 Texas State 55 2
96 Troy 55 3
97 Wyoming 55 2
98 Louisiana-Lafayette 54.5 2
99 Syracuse 54.5 2.5
100 Boston College 54 2
101 South Alabama 53.5 2
102 Western Michigan 53.5 2
103 Oregon State 52.5 3.5
104 Western Kentucky 52 2.5
105 Arkansas State 51.5 2
106 Central Michigan 51.5 2
107 Coastal Carolina 51.5 2
108 Tulsa 51.5 1
109 Marshall 51 3
110 UAB 51 2.5
111 Jacksonville State 50.5 3.5
112 Delaware 50 3
113 Liberty 50 3
114 Rice 50 3
115 Appalachian State 49.5 2
116 Colorado State 49.5 2
117 Missouri State 49 2
118 Georgia Southern 48 3.5
119 Florida International 47.5 2
120 UTEP 47.5 2
121 Nevada 47 1
122 Buffalo 46.5 2
123 Eastern Michigan 46 2
124 Middle Tennessee 45.5 2
125 Northern Illinois 45.5 1
126 Oklahoma State 45 2
127 Akron 44.5 2
128 Bowling Green 44.5 2
129 Georgia State 44.5 1
130 Louisiana-Monroe 44 2
131 New Mexico State 44 2.5
132 Ball State 42.5 2.5
133 Kent State 42 1
134 Sam Houston State 42 0.5
135 Charlotte 39 1
136 Massachusetts 31.5 1

Here are my Week 12 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Akron +2, Ball State +1, Tulane +3, Northwestern +1, Florida Atlantic +2, Kentucky +1.5, Army +2.5, West Virginia +1.5, Texas A&M +1.5, Texas Tech +1.5, Auburn +1.5, Louisiana +1.5, Iowa +2, Wisconsin +1.5, UConn +3.5, Notre Dame +1.5, Virginia +1.5, Kansas +1, Iowa State +1, Kennesaw State +1.5, Coastal Carolina +1, FIU +1

Down: UMass -2, Northern Illinois -1.5, Memphis -1.5, East Carolina -1.5, Florida -6, Colorado -2.5, Florida State -1.5, Louisville -2.5, Penn State -2.5, Bowling Green -1.5, Missouri -1.5, Texas State -1.5, Oregon -4, Washington -1.5, Arizona -2.5, Duke -1.5, Navy -1.5, Maryland -2, TCU -1

Some notes on the biggest movers:

UConn +3.5: The Huskies were flying under the radar until their big win over Duke. QB Joe Fagnano has a 25/0 TD/INT ratio for a 68.8% completion rate. I’m not sure how I didn’t really notice that until now, but what a special season for him. At 6-foot-4, the Senior Bowl and Combine could be rather interesting for him.

Tulane +3: My line and my opinion on Tulane vs. Memphis was very off, so adjustments to both for this week. Impressive effort from the Green Wave, who were the right side in that one.

Florida -6: The Gators quit last week. They were one of my favorite plays against Kentucky and they got crushed. They had four takeaways and scored seven points. Kentucky had a 150-yard edge. Pathetic. Absolutely pathetic. Looks like the Georgia game was their last stand.

Oregon -4: I finally decided I had enough data points of mediocrity out of Oregon to adjust them down. I’ve been too high on them for a few weeks, but it was time after that marginal effort against Iowa. A win, but not impressive otherwise. I know the weather didn’t help, but still.

Penn State -2.5: I lowered Penn State despite nearly beating Indiana because I had the line at +9 and it obviously closed a lot higher. You really have to wonder if Penn State has energy left after playing Ohio State and Indiana in back-to-back weeks and losing both chances to salvage something out of the season.

My Week 12 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date Away Team Home Team Line
11/11 Ohio Western Michigan +1
  Kent State Akron -4.5
       
11/12 Northern Illinois UMass +13
  Toledo Miami (OH) +0.5
  Buffalo Central Michigan -7
       
11/13 Troy Old Dominion -7
       
11/14 Clemson Louisville -2
  Minnesota Oregon -24
       
11/15 Coastal Carolina Georgia Southern PK
  Air Force UConn -9.5
  UTSA Charlotte +18
  Texas Georgia -5.5
  App State James Madison -20.5
  Arizona Cincinnati -7
  Memphis East Carolina +1
  Marshall Georgia State +5.5
  South Florida Navy (w/ Horvath) +7
  Georgia Tech Boston College +19.5
  Virginia Duke -6
  Virginia Tech Florida State -11.5
  Wisconsin Indiana -28
  NC State Miami (FL) -15
  Penn State Michigan State +9
  UCLA Ohio State -30
  Notre Dame Pitt +15
  North Carolina Wake Forest -7.5
  Eastern Michigan Ball State +1
  Oklahoma Alabama -9.5
  Delaware Sam Houston State +7.5
  Oregon State Tulsa PK
  Texas State Southern Miss -7
  UCF Texas Tech -22
  Kansas State Oklahoma State +23.5
  Utah Baylor +14.5
  Florida Mississippi -12
  Mississippi State Missouri -6.5
  FAU Tulane -14.5
  South Carolina Texas A&M -19
  Arkansas LSU -8.5
  South Alabama UL Monroe +7.5
  North Texas UAB +15
  Maryland Illinois -14
  Michigan Northwestern +9.5
  Kennesaw State Jacksonville State +2.5
  Colorado State New Mexico -12.5
  TCU BYU -4
  West Virginia Arizona State -13.5
  UTEP Missouri State -3.5
  Wyoming Fresno State -4
  Iowa USC -5
  Purdue Washington -15
  Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky -9
  San Jose State Nevada +11
  New Mexico State Tennessee -38.5
  Liberty FIU +0.5
  Utah State UNLV -3.5
  Louisiana Tech Washington State -2.5
  Boise State San Diego State -3

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

Central Michigan -2 (-7) vs. Buffalo: Hey, a MACtion play for Wednesday. Extra prep for both, but I haven’t given Buffalo any credit for beating Eastern Michigan in OT, beating pathetic UMass by 7, and Bowling Green by 25. I guess the close loss to UConn is aging well, but this line looks cheap to me.

Troy +11 (+7) at Old Dominion: This one feels steep. Troy had a setback against Arkansas State, but has had some extra time now and they had reeled off five wins in a row prior to that, as they’ve adjusted to life without Goose Crowder.

Notre Dame -10.5 (-15) at Pitt: I really think this Notre Dame team is out for blood every week. Marcus Freeman knows the situation. This is the Irish’s last decent opponent with Syracuse and Stanford left. Pitt may be ranked, but they’ve beaten nobody of consequence except maybe NC State, but they’re all over the place this season.

Utah -9 (-14.5) at Baylor: I’ll end up on Utah here. Sawyer Robertson has the chance to orchestrate an upset over any team in the country and Baylor’s defensive metrics are better than I’m giving them credit for right now. I still think there’s a big gap between these two.

Louisiana Tech +6.5 (+2.5) at Washington State: Really, really weird and random game here. Long trip from Ruston to Pullman. This might be a stay-away because of those factors. My power rating is just a raw number with the teams and my default HFA for each individual team. That misses a lot in a game like this.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.

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