Week 13 College Football

Week 13 college football is our last chance at MACtion, though that’s probably not the biggest of concerns for everybody. There are some very important games with regards to the College Football Playoff and conference standings that are going to be difficult to handicap. Like I said last week, my ratings are less and less important to me as the season goes along, especially with the injuries, QB changes, and varying motivation levels. I’ve adjusted the best I can for my Week 13 College Football Power Ratings, but we’ll also probably have some starters that we didn’t expect at key positions.

We also saw a few timeshares or quick hooks at the QB position last week. It’s just that time of the year and the NIL and the threat of transferring doesn’t make it any easier on the coaches. So, that truly is a big factor, but another is that we’ll have some line inflation this week and next, as some teams are looking for style points, some are in “must-win” situations, and others clearly have nothing to play for and may have even given the appearance of quitting.

The ones that get me the most are the teams that are sitting on four or five wins and must either win out or win one of the next two weeks for a bowl berth. Are we sure that these teams even want to play in a bowl? Should we really be paying a premium to back teams that are currently 4-6 or 5-5? Clearly, they’re not that good, otherwise they’d have six wins already.

Finally, before posting my 1 through 136, I’ll leave you with this perfect tweet from Parker Fleming to explain the season.

Week 13 College Football Power Ratings

Rank Team PR HFA
1 Ohio State 93.5 3.5
2 Indiana 90 2.5
3 Notre Dame 88.5 3
4 Texas A&M 87 2
5 Alabama 86.5 3.5
6 Oregon 86.5 3.5
7 Georgia 86 3
8 Texas Tech 85.5 3
9 Utah 84.5 3
10 Oklahoma 83.5 3
11 Texas 83.5 3.5
12 Miami (Florida) 83 2
13 USC 82.5 3
14 Vanderbilt 82 1.5
15 Mississippi 81.5 3
16 Michigan 79.5 3
17 Iowa 79 3
18 Tennessee 79 3.5
19 Auburn 78 2
20 BYU 78 2
21 Illinois 77 2
22 Missouri 76 3.5
23 Penn State 75 3.5
24 Washington 75 3.5
25 Clemson 74 2.5
26 LSU 74 3.5
27 Kentucky 73.5 2
28 Virginia 73.5 2
29 Arkansas 73 2
30 Florida State 73 2
31 Georgia Tech 73 2
32 Iowa State 73 2
33 Mississippi State 73 2
34 Duke 72.5 3.5
35 Florida 72.5 2
36 Louisville 72.5 3.5
37 South Florida 72 1.5
38 Arizona 71.5 2
39 Arizona State 71.5 2
40 Cincinnati 71.5 1.5
41 Pittsburgh 71.5 2
42 SMU 71.5 3.5
43 North Texas 71 2
44 Houston 70.5 2
45 North Carolina State 70 2
46 Northwestern 70 1.5
47 South Carolina 70 2.5
48 TCU 70 3
49 Baylor 69 2
50 Nebraska 69 2
51 East Carolina 68.5 2
52 James Madison 68.5 3
53 Kansas State 68 3.5
54 Kansas 67.5 2.5
55 Memphis 67.5 2.5
56 Tulane 67.5 2.5
57 San Diego State 67 2
58 Boise State 66 3.5
59 Rutgers 65.5 2
60 West Virginia 65 2
61 UCLA 64.5 2
62 Wisconsin 64.5 2
63 Michigan State 64 2
64 Connecticut 63.5 2.5
65 Purdue 63.5 1
66 Toledo 63.5 3
67 Wake Forest 63.5 2
68 Minnesota 63 2
69 Navy 63 2
70 UCF 63 2
71 Old Dominion 62 1.5
72 New Mexico 61.5 2
73 Army 61 2.5
74 Maryland 61 2
75 Virginia Tech 61 2
76 Hawai’i 60.5 2
77 North Carolina 60.5 2
78 UNLV 60 2.5
79 Temple 59.5 2
80 Washington State 59.5 3
81 California 59 2
82 Utah State 59 2
83 Colorado 58 2
84 UTSA 58 3.5
85 Southern Mississippi 57.5 2
86 Fresno State 57 2
87 Texas State 57 2
88 Kennesaw State 56.5 1.5
89 Ohio 56.5 3.5
90 San Jose State 56.5 2.5
91 Boston College 55.5 2
92 Florida Atlantic 55.5 2
93 Stanford 55.5 1
94 Western Michigan 55.5 2
95 Louisiana-Lafayette 54.5 2
96 Syracuse 54.5 2.5
97 Western Kentucky 54.5 2.5
98 Marshall 52.5 3
99 Miami (Ohio) 52.5 2.5
100 Troy 52.5 3
101 Wyoming 52.5 2
102 Louisiana Tech 52 2
103 South Alabama 52 2
104 Arkansas State 51.5 2
105 Central Michigan 51.5 2
106 Coastal Carolina 51.5 2
107 Tulsa 51.5 1
108 Georgia Southern 51 3.5
109 Oregon State 51 3.5
110 UAB 51 2.5
111 Jacksonville State 50.5 3.5
112 Missouri State 50.5 2
113 Delaware 50 3
114 Liberty 50 3
115 Rice 50 3
116 Air Force 49.5 2
117 Buffalo 49.5 2
118 Colorado State 49.5 2
119 Appalachian State 48 2
120 Oklahoma State 48 2
121 Eastern Michigan 47.5 2
122 Florida International 47.5 2
123 Nevada 47 1
124 UTEP 46 2
125 Middle Tennessee 45.5 2
126 Northern Illinois 45.5 1
127 Akron 44.5 2
128 Bowling Green 44.5 2
129 Louisiana-Monroe 42.5 2
130 New Mexico State 42.5 2.5
131 Georgia State 42 1
132 Kent State 42 1
133 Sam Houston State 42 0.5
134 Ball State 41 2.5
135 Charlotte 36.5 1
136 Massachusetts 28.5 1

Here are my Week 13 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Western Michigan +2, Toledo +2.5, Buffalo +3, Old Dominion +1.5, Georgia Southern +3, East Carolina +2.5, Marshall +1.5, Virginia +3.5, Ohio State +1, North Carolina +1, Eastern Michigan +1.5, Oklahoma +1.5, Texas State +2, Texas Tech +1, Arkansas +1.5, North Texas +2.5, Illinois +1.5, Northwestern +1.5, BYU +3, West Virginia +1.5, Missouri State +1.5, USC +1.5, Western Kentucky +2.5, Washington State +3.5, Kentucky +2.5, Boston College +1.5, Arizona +1.5, New Mexico +1.5, James Madison +1.5, Oklahoma State +3

Down: Miami (OH) -5.5, Troy -2.5, Minnesota -3, App State -1.5, Cincinnati -4, Memphis -1.5, Georgia State -2.5, Georgia Tech -2.5, Virginia Tech -2.5, UCLA -1.5, Wake Forest -1.5, Ball State -1.5, Alabama -1.5, Oregon State -1.5, Southern Miss -2.5, Kansas State -2.5, LSU -2.5, South Alabama -1.5, Maryland -2.5, Arizona State -3.5, UTEP -1.5, San Jose State -2.5, New Mexico State -1.5, Louisiana Tech -1.5, Utah -1, Air Force -7 (Szarka inj.), Charlotte -2.5, UL Monroe -1.5, Wyoming -2.5, UMass -3, UCF -2.5, TCU -3, Louisiana Tech -3, Vanderbilt -2

Some notes on the biggest movers:

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Virginia +3.5: The Cavaliers seem more legitimate than I thought. There’s still some turnover luck that might regress, but that was a dominant win over a pretty good Duke team.

Washington State +3.5: I’ve had no idea how to rate the orphans – Wazzu and Oregon State – with such a random schedule, but I was way off on last week’s line and the Cougars covered pretty easily.

BYU +3: Same thing. BYU has had some lucky outcomes, but they’re also still a good team and Bear Bachmeier seems like a pretty solid QB overall with some room to keep improving.

Buffalo +3, Georgia Southern +3, Oklahoma State +3: Just market corrections on poor teams. Seems I got too low on the three of them.

Air Force -7: Liam Szarka is done for the season with a fractured arm. He has accounted for 81.5% of the passing yards and 34% of the rushing yards. Josh Johnson is a massive step down and seven points may not even be enough.

Miami (OH) -5.5: The RedHawks seem to be far worse than I thought, as my lines have been higher than the market’s for a few weeks now.

Cincinnati -4: The Bearcats have been exposed the last two games by Utah and Arizona. Not that it matters in this context, but the film has also not been good for QB Brendan Sorsby.

Arizona State -3.5: This team has been maddening between the injuries and the inconsistent performances. No Sam Leavitt again last week.

My Week 13 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date Away Team Home Team Line
11/18 UMass Ohio -31.5
  Akron Bowling Green -2
  Western Michigan Northern Illinois +9
       
11/19 Miami (OH) Buffalo +1
  Central Michigan Kent State +8.5
       
11/20 Louisiana Arkansas State +1
       
11/21 Florida State NC State +1
  Hawaii UNLV -2
       
11/22 Rutgers Ohio State -31.5
  UConn FAU +6
  Tulane Temple +6
  Marshall App State +2.5
  Tulsa Army -12
  Oklahoma State UCF -17
  Old Dominion Georgia Southern +7.5
  Delaware Wake Forest -15.5
  BYU Cincinnati +5
  Tennessee Florida +4.5
  Washington State James Madison -12
  Pitt Georgia Tech -3.5
  Michigan Maryland +16.5
  Duke North Carolina +10
  Ball State Toledo -25.5
  Nebraska Penn State -9.5
  Miami (FL) Virginia Tech +20
  Coastal Carolina South Carolina -21
  Missouri Oklahoma -10.5
  Charlotte Georgia -52.5
  TCU Houston -2.5
  Colorado State Boise State -20
  Kansas State Utah -19.5
  Arizona State Colorado +11.5
  Nevada Wyoming -7.5
  Baylor Arizona -4.5
  Cal Stanford +2.5
  Arkansas Texas -14
  Washington UCLA +8.5
  San Jose State San Diego State -12.5
  New Mexico State UTEP -5.5
  USC Oregon -7.5
  Sam Houston Middle Tennessee -5.5
  Liberty Louisiana Tech -4
  Louisville SMU -2.5
  Missouri State Kennesaw State -7.5
  Illinois Wisconsin +10.5
  North Texas Rice +18
  Kansas Iowa State -7.5
  South Florida UAB +18.5
  UL Monroe Texas State -16.5
  Minnesota Northwestern -8.5
  Michigan State Iowa -18
  East Carolina UTSA +7
  Kentucky Vanderbilt -10
  Western Kentucky LSU -23
  Georgia State Troy -13.5
  Southern Miss South Alabama +3.5
  Jacksonville State FIU +1
  Syracuse Notre Dame -37
  New Mexico Air Force +10
  Utah State Fresno State +4

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

Louisiana +3.5 (-1) at Arkansas State: I don’t know, the Sun Belt is all over the place outside of James Madison, but I feel like Louisiana’s offense is more consistent and the numbers do show that.

NC State +5.5 (+1) vs. Florida State: Florida State’s big YPP numbers on offense are a mirage, with 8.9 YPP against non-conference opponents. The defense is absolutely way better than NC State’s, but I feel like the line’s too high here and my numbers agree.

Texas -10 (-14) vs. Arkansas: These teams are opposites. Arkansas has great offensive numbers and atrocious defensive numbers, while Texas has great defensive numbers and mediocre offensive numbers. They haven’t been interested in winning by margin, so maybe I do have them rated a bit too high.

Iowa State -7.5 (-4) vs. Kansas: Both teams on extra rest, but I’m low on the Jayhawks, whose only Big 12 wins have been West Virginia in a terrible spot, UCF, who is 1-6, and Oklahoma State, who is 0-7. 

New Mexico -10 (-1.5) at Air Force: This is an extremely large overlay for this late in the season, but remember, this would have been New Mexico -3 without an enormous adjustment for Liam Szarka. He really means so much to that Air Force offense. Jason Eck is doing one hell of a job in Albuquerque.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.

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