Just like that, the college football regular season is over, and conference championship week is here. These matchups feature the two most successful teams in each conference, so great games are almost inevitable. Nearly every matchup has playoff implications, and we have four top 25 showdowns to break down. Things kick off Friday night with the American Championship between North Texas and Tulane at 8 PM. The rest of the ranked matchups come Saturday, starting with the Big 12 title game between BYU and Texas Tech at noon ET. After that, Georgia and Alabama square off in the SEC Championship. Closing out the weekend is the Big Ten title game between Indiana and Ohio State, a matchup that could very well decide this year’s Heisman winner. With so much on the line, these games bring some exciting opportunities—so let’s dive into a few QB props available for the weekend.

(24) North Texas Mean Green vs. (20) Tulane Green Wave

Drew Mestemaker:

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  • Props
    • Passing Yards: 319.5 (over -114; under -114)
    • Passing TD’s: 2.5 (over +124; under -166)

North Texas has been one of the most prolific offenses in the country this season, led by quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who put together an impressive regular season. Across 12 games, Mestemaker averaged 319.5 passing yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game. Tulane’s defense hasn’t been particularly strong against the pass, allowing 251.9 yards per game, which ranks 113th in the FBS. This is the first meeting between these programs this season, so there’s naturally some uncertainty, and both teams will be losing their head coaches to Power Four jobs next year. Even with that in mind, I think Mestemaker has a strong day through the air and surpasses his current passing-yardage line. However, I’d stay away from his passing-touchdowns prop—2.5 is a tough number to trust.

Jake Retzlaff:

  • Props
    • Passing Yards: 237.5 (over -114; under -114)
    • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -146; under +110)
    • Rushing Yards: 37.5 (over -114; under -114)

Jake Retzlaff has been a solid dual-threat quarterback for the Green Wave this season, though Tulane hasn’t leaned on his rushing ability over the last three weeks — mostly because they haven’t needed to. Through the air, he’s put together a respectable campaign, averaging 226.4 passing yards and 1.1 passing touchdowns per game. On the ground, he adds another 46.7 yards per game.

North Texas has been excellent against the pass, allowing just 171.6 yards per game, which ranks 12th in the FBS, but they’ve struggled badly against the run, giving up 224.2 yards per game — 133rd nationally. Tulane’s game plan should be straightforward: keep the ball on the ground. Because of that, I think both of Retzlaff’s passing props are inflated, and if you’re looking to play an over, his rushing-yards line is the spot.

(11) BYU Cougars vs. (4) Texas Tech Red Raiders

Bear Bachmeier:

  • Props
    • Passing Yards: 186.5 (over -114; under -114)
    • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +205; under -290)
    • Rushing Yards: 30.5 (over -114; under -114)

BYU didn’t have an explosive passing attack this season, but Bear Bachmeier still led the team to an impressive 11-1 record. Over 12 games, he’s averaged 216 passing yards per game and added another 44 yards per game on the ground. He now faces a Texas Tech defense that allows only 195.6 passing yards per game, ranking 25th in the FBS, and just 71.1 rushing yards per game, which leads the nation.

In their first matchup, Bachmeier threw for 188 yards and ran for only 12 yards on 11 carries, with a single passing touchdown. Yardage will remain tough to come by for this BYU offense, especially on the ground. That said, I do think Bachmeier can exceed his passing-yards projection, but I’m staying away from his passing-touchdowns line.

Behren Morton:

  • Props
    • Passing Yards: 250.5 (over -114; under -114)
    • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -140; under +106)

In unorthodox Big 12 fashion, Texas Tech has been carried by its defense this season. That’s not to say Behren Morton and the offense have struggled—it’s more a reflection of how dominant the defense has been. In the 10 games Morton played, he averaged 242.8 passing yards per game along with 2 passing touchdowns. He now faces a BYU defense allowing 219.2 passing yards per game, which ranks 58th in the FBS.

When these teams met earlier in the season, Morton threw for 219 yards and 1 touchdown, though Texas Tech didn’t need much from him late as they pulled away early. With both teams appearing to peak at the right time, Texas Tech will likely have to lean on the passing game deeper into this matchup. That should give Morton the chance to exceed both his passing-yards and passing-touchdowns projections.

(3) Georgia Bulldogs vs. (9) Alabama Crimson Tide

Gunner Stockton:

  • Props
    • Passing Yards: 195.5 (over -114; under -114)
    • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +118; under -158)
    • Rushing Yards: 26.5 (over -114; under -114)

Things are a little worrisome in the Gunner Stockton camp after his 70-yard passing performance against Georgia Tech last week. The Bulldogs will certainly need more from him in this rematch with the Crimson Tide. Across the season, Stockton averaged 211.2 passing yards per game, 1.6 passing touchdowns, and 33.5 rushing yards. Alabama is a tough team to throw against, allowing just 170.4 passing yards per game (11th in FBS) and 32.2 rushing yards per game (22nd in FBS).

In their regular-season meeting, Stockton threw for 130 yards with 1 passing touchdown and added 22 rushing yards. With Alabama’s secondary banged up, Georgia will likely need to open up the passing attack, which makes me lean toward the overs on his passing props while staying away from the rushing numbers.

Ty Simpson:

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  • Props
    • Passing Yards: 250.5 (over -114; under -114)
    • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -130; under -102)
    • Rushing Yards: 12.5 (over -114; under -114)

Alabama’s Ty Simpson has put together a stellar season, though his play has been a bit shaky lately. For the year, he averaged 254.6 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, and 10.5 rushing yards per game. Georgia’s defense has been tough, allowing just 209.6 passing yards per game (46th in FBS) and 90 rushing yards per game (7th in FBS).

Simpson performed well in the first meeting between these teams, throwing for 276 yards and 2 touchdowns, while adding 12 rushing yards. The Crimson Tide will certainly be ready for this matchup, but I’m not convinced Simpson clears his passing yards line. The passing touchdown prop is more appealing, and I’d avoid the rushing yardage altogether.

(2) Indiana Hoosiers vs. (1) Ohio State Buckeyes

Fernando Mendoza:

  • Props
    • Passing Yards: 210.5 (over -114; under -114)
    • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +130; under -174)
    • Rushing Yards: 20.5 (over -114; under -114)

The Heisman campaign continues for Fernando Mendoza this Saturday in Indianapolis. This season, he’s averaged 229.8 passing yards, 2.6 passing touchdowns, and 20.2 rushing yards per game. Ohio State presents a brutal matchup, allowing just 125.8 passing yards per game (1st in FBS) and 80.5 rushing yards per game (3rd in FBS). Given how strong this Buckeye defense is, I expect a low-scoring game, and taking the under on all of Mendoza’s projections feels like a reasonable approach.

Julian Sayin:

  • Props
    • Passing Yards: 231.5 (over -114; under -114)
    • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -182; under +136)

Julian Sayin and the Ohio State Buckeyes have steamrolled through the season, and he’s put up strong numbers along the way. Through 12 games, he’s averaged 255.4 passing yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game. Indiana’s defense has been solid against the pass, allowing just 184.7 yards per game, but with the caliber of weapons Ohio State has on the outside, Sayin should still be in for a productive day. I think he has a good chance to surpass both projections tomorrow.