College Football Playoff

The College Football Playoff field is set and you can argue that one of the four best teams in the nation is not part of it. In my College Football Power Ratings, I have Notre Dame ranked fourth in the nation. Not only are they not in the field of 12, but they said the hell with it and decided to bypass the bowl season altogether. Given how poorly Alabama played against Georgia, the Crimson Tide shouldn’t be in. But, they are, and that’s the way it goes with a SEC bias and seemingly a punishment towards Notre Dame for not being willing to join a conference.

I’ve updated my power ratings for the CFP and the Army/Navy game. I’ll have to make adjustments for the bowl season once all of those matchups are set and we start to get an idea of who is sticking around to play and who isn’t. I’ll be putting my power ratings together for that later in the week and will post another article.

For now, this is an update after conference championship week, but it does list all 136 FBS teams.

College Football Playoff Power Ratings

Rank Team PR HFA
1 Ohio State 92.5 3.5
2 Indiana 91 2.5
3 Texas Tech 90 3
4 Notre Dame 88.5 3
5 Texas A&M 88 2
6 Oregon 87.5 3.5
7 Georgia 87.5 3
8 Vanderbilt 84.5 1.5
9 Mississippi 84.5 3
10 Miami (Florida) 84.5 2
11 Alabama 84.5 3.5
12 Texas 84 3.5
13 Oklahoma 82 3
14 Utah 80.5 3
15 USC 80 3
16 Missouri 79.5 3.5
17 Michigan 79.5 3
18 Iowa 78.5 3
19 Auburn 78 2
20 Penn State 77 3.5
21 Tennessee 76 3.5
22 South Florida 76 1.5
23 Pittsburgh 76 2
24 Arizona 75.5 2
25 Washington 75 3.5
26 BYU 75 2
27 Illinois 74.5 2
28 Clemson 74 2.5
29 North Texas 73.5 2
30 LSU 73.5 3.5
31 Mississippi State 73 2
32 Georgia Tech 73 2
33 Arkansas 73 2
34 Florida State 72.5 2
35 Florida 72.5 2
36 SMU 72 3.5
37 TCU 71.5 3
38 James Madison 71.5 3
39 Tulane 71 2.5
40 Iowa State 70.5 2
41 South Carolina 70 2.5
42 Kentucky 69.5 2
43 Virginia 69 2
44 Nebraska 69 2
45 Louisville 69 3.5
46 Kansas State 69 3.5
47 Arizona State 69 2
48 North Carolina State 68.5 2
49 Cincinnati 68.5 1.5
50 Kansas 67.5 2.5
51 Wisconsin 67 2
52 Northwestern 67 1.5
53 Houston 67 2
54 East Carolina 67 2
55 Baylor 67 2
56 Duke 66 3.5
57 Boise State 66 3.5
58 Wake Forest 65.5 2
59 Toledo 65.5 3
60 San Diego State 65.5 2
61 Old Dominion 64.5 1.5
62 Navy 64.5 2
63 Memphis 64.5 2.5
64 Connecticut 64.5 2.5
65 Michigan State 64 2
66 Purdue 63.5 1
67 New Mexico 63.5 2
68 UNLV 63 2.5
69 Rutgers 63 2
70 Minnesota 63 2
71 Virginia Tech 62.5 2
72 West Virginia 62 2
73 North Carolina 62 2
74 Washington State 61.5 3
75 UTSA 61.5 3.5
76 UCLA 61.5 2
77 UCF 61.5 2
78 Maryland 61 2
79 Utah State 60.5 2
80 Texas State 60 2
81 Army 60 2.5
82 Hawai’i 59.5 2
83 Kennesaw State 58 1.5
84 Colorado 58 2
85 California 57.5 2
86 Western Michigan 57 2
87 Temple 57 2
88 Stanford 57 1
89 Fresno State 57 2
90 Southern Mississippi 56.5 2
91 Ohio 56.5 3.5
92 Florida Atlantic 56.5 2
93 Boston College 55.5 2
94 Miami (Ohio) 55 2.5
95 Western Kentucky 54.5 2.5
96 Tulsa 54.5 1
97 Troy 53.5 3
98 South Alabama 53 2
99 Arkansas State 53 2
100 Marshall 52.5 3
101 Louisiana-Lafayette 52.5 2
102 Oklahoma State 52 2
103 Jacksonville State 52 3.5
104 San Jose State 51.5 2.5
105 Central Michigan 51.5 2
106 Oregon State 51 3.5
107 Georgia Southern 51 3.5
108 Missouri State 50.5 2
109 Wyoming 50 2
110 Rice 50 3
111 Liberty 50 3
112 Florida International 50 2
113 UAB 49.5 2.5
114 Syracuse 49.5 2.5
115 Nevada 49.5 1
116 Buffalo 49.5 2
117 Air Force 49.5 2
118 Louisiana Tech 49 2
119 Appalachian State 49 2
120 Delaware 48 3
121 Eastern Michigan 47.5 2
122 Coastal Carolina 47 2
123 Northern Illinois 45.5 1
124 Middle Tennessee 45.5 2
125 Colorado State 45.5 2
126 UTEP 44.5 2
127 Bowling Green 44.5 2
128 Akron 44.5 2
129 New Mexico State 44 2.5
130 Louisiana-Monroe 42.5 2
131 Kent State 42 1
132 Georgia State 42 1
133 Ball State 39.5 2.5
134 Sam Houston State 37.5 0.5
135 Charlotte 36.5 1
136 Massachusetts 28.5 1

Here are my power ratings adjustments:

Up: Kennesaw State +1.5, Troy +1, Tulane +2, Boise State +3, Texas Tech +2, Georgia +1.5, Indiana +1, Mississippi +3, Oklahoma +1

Down: James Madison -3, North Texas -1.5, UNLV -1, BYU -2, Alabama -1.5, Virginia -2, Ohio State -1.5

Embed from Getty Images

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Boise State +3: The return of Maddux Madsen pushed the Mountain West Championship Game line all the way out to 6. I had it Boise State -2.5, so 3 or so seemed like a fair adjustment.

Mississippi +3: I had gotten a little lower on Ole Miss with the whole Lane Kiffin fiasco, but the team should have moved on now with Pete Golding and they have the biggest chip of any CFP team’s shoulders.

James Madison -3: This is a tough one and I’ll expand some here. So, we’ve been seeing a lot of teams in conference play for a while now. How they stack up against their peers will be a lot different than they stand up nationally. I still can’t get to the market number on this game, even with this adjustment. My Tulane line against Ole Miss is the same way.

A team like James Madison that is a massive favorite against every other conference member has to be given that respect, but they are indeed out-talented in this type of playoff environment. They didn’t cover against Troy, and weather was part of that, but I did downgrade them a little bit.

My College Football Playoff Lines

(note: games are ordered chronologically)

I did feel like I should add Army and Navy here, even though that is not a College Football Playoff game.

Date Away Team Home Team Line
12/13 Army Navy -4.5
       
12/31 James Madison Oregon -19.5
       
1/1 Tulane Mississippi -16.5
  Alabama Oklahoma -0.5
  Miami (FL) Texas A&M -5.5

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

As of right now, I don’t have any CFP bets. Alabama at a short price might be a take for me (despite my line) given the huge yardage disparity of the first game, but that’s about it for now.

I do lean towards Texas A&M at present, mostly looking to fade Mario Cristobal, but I don’t have any key number equity comparing my line to the market or anything like that.

I’ll be posting a separate article with my College Football Power Ratings and lines for the bowl season later this week.

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