QB Spotlight: Semifinals of the CFP

And just like that, the College Football Playoff is down to four teams, all competing for a spot in the National Championship on January 19th. The quarterfinal round featured several dominant performances, with just one tightly contested game to close things out. In the semifinal round, we’ll see the two remaining traditional New Year’s Six bowls that weren’t played in the quarterfinals, which will determine the two teams advancing to the national title game.

To kick things off, we’ll get the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday evening, featuring a matchup between Miami and Ole Miss. Rounding out the semifinals, we’ll see a familiar Big Ten battle in the Peach Bowl, as Oregon takes on Indiana in a rematch from earlier this season. As the field continues to narrow, quarterback play becomes even more critical. Let’s take a look at what the sportsbooks are projecting for these signal callers.

Miami Hurricanes (10) vs. Ole Miss Rebels (6)

Carson Beck:

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 235.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -136; under +102)
  • Rushing Yards: 5.5 (over -114; under -114)

Carson Beck hasn’t exactly lit up the stat sheet in Miami’s first two CFP games, as the Hurricanes have leaned heavily on their rushing attack. In those two games, Beck has thrown for just 103 and 138 yards, accounting for two total touchdowns. On the ground, he ran for -6 yards against Texas A&M and 23 yards versus Ohio State.

Over the course of the season, Beck has been fairly reliable, averaging 236.6 passing yards per game, 1.9 passing touchdowns per game, and 4 rushing yards per game. Ole Miss’ defense has been solid this year, particularly against the pass, allowing just 207.2 passing yards per game (39th in FBS). They’ve been less effective against the run, however, surrendering 151.3 rushing yards per game (66th in FBS).

Given Beck’s first two CFP performances and Miami’s offensive approach, I don’t see him clearing his passing yards projection in this matchup. I’d stay away from the passing touchdowns prop, but I do lean toward the over on his rushing yards.

Trinidad Chambliss:

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 259.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +124; under -166)
  • Rushing Yards: 23.5 (over -114; under -114)

Ole Miss and Trinidad Chambliss appear to be playing with house money in this year’s College Football Playoff and are looking to shock the college football world. Chambliss delivered one of the most impressive performances of the season against Georgia, throwing for 362 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 14 rushing yards.

Across the 12 games he has started, Chambliss is averaging 300 passing yards per game, 1.6 passing touchdowns per game, and 41.5 rushing yards per game. Miami’s defense has been strong throughout the season and has continued that form in the playoffs. They allow 208.9 passing yards per game (44th in FBS) and are elite against the run, giving up just 83.4 rushing yards per game (4th in FBS).

Chambliss showed against Georgia that he is excellent at extending plays, and he will need to do so again in this matchup, particularly against Miami’s stout defensive front. I think Chambliss can once again surpass his passing yards projection. Given the value on the over for his passing touchdowns, that also looks like a strong option. As for rushing yards, I’d lean toward the under or avoid the prop altogether.

Oregon Ducks (5) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (1)

Dante Moore:

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 216.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +130; under -174)
  • Rushing Yards: 3.5 (over -114; under -114)

The Oregon Ducks and Dante Moore will be looking for revenge from earlier this season as they rematch the Indiana Hoosiers in the Peach Bowl. Moore has been steady through his first two playoff games, throwing for 313 yards and four touchdowns against JMU, followed by a 234-yard performance with no passing touchdowns against Texas Tech.

He has not been a major factor in the rushing attack, totaling five rushing yards against JMU and minus-12 yards against Texas Tech. In the earlier regular-season matchup against Indiana at home, Moore threw for 186 yards and one touchdown, while finishing with minus-27 rushing yards.

On the season, Moore is averaging 234.2 passing yards per game, two passing touchdowns per game, and 13.1 rushing yards per game. Indiana’s defense has been stout all year, allowing just 189.7 passing yards per game (21st in FBS) and 76.4 rushing yards per game (3rd in FBS). They also put together a dominant defensive performance against Alabama in their opening CFP matchup.

Oregon will need Moore to step up in this game, which gives him a reasonable chance to surpass his passing yards projection. However, I would avoid his other two projections, given the inconsistency in passing touchdowns and his fluctuating rushing usage from game to game.

Fernando Mendoza:

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 208.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -132; under +100)
  • Rushing Yards: 23.5 (over -114; under -114)

Fernando Mendoza backed up his recent Heisman Trophy with a strong performance against Alabama, completing 14 of 16 passes for 192 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, and 16 rushing yards. On the season, he has averaged 226.5 passing yards per game, 2.5 passing touchdowns per game, and 18.2 rushing yards per game.

In the first matchup against Oregon earlier this season, Mendoza threw for 215 yards and one touchdown, while adding 31 yards on the ground. This Oregon defense has been outstanding under Dan Lanning, particularly against the pass, allowing just 153.4 passing yards per game (2nd in FBS), along with 115.8 rushing yards per game (22nd in FBS).

What makes Indiana dangerous is how balanced they can be offensively. I expect that trend to continue in this matchup, which makes me hesitant to back Mendoza to surpass his passing yards projection. However, I do like him to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns, and I also favor the over on his rushing yards, as he should leave everything on the field in a game of this magnitude.