As I indicated in my first VSiN article this week, titled NFL Playoff Betting Trends and Systems, I will still be offering the round-by-round trend and system analysis. This first in that series, of course, deals with the Wild Card round and the six games we have this weekend. 

Once again, 14 teams remain alive in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy. The Wild Card round will eliminate six of them. As usual, there are some favorites in the betting markets, but in both conferences, it seems like a two/three horse race to make it to Las Vegas in February. Theoretically, the advantages would go to Seattle in the NFC and Denver in the AFC, as those two teams claimed the all-important #1 seeds, and will be the only teams that need not worry about what transpires this weekend. Their playoff pushes begin next weekend. However, considering that 2023 was the only year since 2018 that both #1’s reached the title game, there is obviously a lot to sort out over the next few weeks. 

As with any recurring sporting event, the NFL playoffs have gone through various trends over the years, with some seasons dominated by underdog and upstart teams and others relatively predictable, with favorites taking care of business. Because of this ever-changing nature, it can be difficult for bettors to thrive when using past playoff results as a guide. In past eras, predicting the playoffs was usually as easy as looking at a team’s body of work. If you read the article I referenced in the opening to this piece, you would have found that there are indeed some very important statistical traits that lead teams to playoff success. If you haven’t taken that piece in, I highly encourage you to do so.

How tough can this playoff-betting exercise be if you just bet blindly on recent trends? Well, consider that all road teams were on a 14-4 SU and  15-3 ATS run in the Wild Card round heading into the 2022 games. As luck would have it, the hosts then enjoyed their best Wild Card weekend in five years, going 5-1 SU and ATS. Road teams would get their revenge in 2023, however, going 4-2 ATS, only for the home teams of the last two years to bounce back with a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS mark. If you prefer betting totals, you may want to consider that Under was 16-8 in the prior five years to 2023, only to see Over hit in five of six games, then split in 2024. Under then won in five of six games a year ago. In short, blindly playing anything usually doesn’t have lasting success. 

My own handicapping methods have changed over the years as well, and lately, how a team has been playing seems to have taken on more and more importance. That doesn’t mean it’s an end-all factor, but it is one area that I give significant consideration. That line of thinking would bode well for the two AFC South teams this weekend, as both are currently riding eight-game or longer winning streaks. If you prefer my RECENT RATINGS to describe which teams are currently playing best, five of the top eight are all Wild Card Weekend teams (JAC, NE, BUF, CHI. PHI). 

For those wondering, only one non-division-winning Wild Card team over the last 12 seasons has played in (and won) the Super Bowl game, and that team, of course, was Tampa Bay of three years ago, as the Bucs started their run on this weekend as a #5 seed. Most experts would point to LA Rams (+425), Buffalo (+1000), or Houston (+1200) as the teams capable of emerging from a Wild Card spot this season, but other than the Rams, at 10-1 odds or worse to win the title, the other five WC teams are still clear long shots. 

It is my annual ritual at this time of year to dig through the database of the recent playoff logs and see if we can uncover any tips of the trade that might help us better handicap this weekend’s Wild Card games. I try to look at it all, home/road scenarios, dogs/favorites, lines, stats, you name it. Continue reading to see what I’ve found, and then see if you can’t apply any of the findings to the upcoming weekend action. I will be doing the exact same thing for each of the rounds as we move towards Super Bowl LX next month.

General Wild Card Playoff ATS Trends

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·  The outright winner owns a point spread record of 69-10-1 ATS (87.3%) in the last 80 Wild Card playoff games! Win-no covers are somewhat rare, so regardless of the point spread, if you can’t see the team you’re betting on winning the game, you’re better off not trying to sneak a cover in. It should be noted, however, that since the expansion of the Wild Card playoffs in ’21, the outright winner in games with lines of 7 points or more have gone just 8-4 ATS (66.7%).

·  Home teams seem to have definitively regained the edge in this round in recent years, particularly on point spreads, going 19-5 SU and 16-8 ATS (66.7%) over the last four seasons.

·  Underdogs are on a run of 19-9-1 ATS (67.9%) in the last 29 NFC Wild Card games, with Carolina, Chicago, and San Francisco lining up in that role this weekend.

·   Wild Card road favorites have become increasingly common in recent playoff seasons, as there have been 22 since 2008. Those teams are 12-10 SU but 8-13-1 ATS (38.1%).  For 2026, we could see four, with the Rams (-10.5), Packers (-1.5), Bills (-1.5), and Texans (-3) best positioned to be such.

·  Home favorites of more than a TD (-7.5 or higher) in the Wild Card round are 19-1 SU and 16-4 ATS (80%) since 2005, with Baltimore and Buffalo extending that trend last year in wins. Unfortunately, we figure to see none of those this weekend, with the Rams, -10.5 on the road being our only sizeable favorite.

·  If you consider lines of 9.5-points or more, Wild Card favored hosts this large have now won 16 straight games outright while going 15-1 ATS (93.8%)! The average score of the 16 games has been 31.1-15.7. The lone ATS loss occurred in 2023, when Buffalo (-15) survived Miami 34-31. This will not apply in 2026.

·  There has been a definitive separation in the success levels of the Wild Card home teams in the Saturday and Sunday games. In the last 39 Saturday games, home teams are 26-13 SU and 25-13-1 ATS (65.8%). In that same span, home teams are 20-22 SU and 15-26-1 ATS (36.6%) on Sundays. If you’re curious, in the four prior Monday night games, hosts are 4-1 SU and ATS since that tradition began in 2022. The Rams and Panthers host the Saturday games this season, while Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and New England are Sunday hosts. Pittsburgh is at home on MNF.

·  Including the lone road outright win last year, Sunday NFC road teams have been terrific, going 16-11 SU and 19-7-1 ATS (73.1%) in the last 27. Under the total is also 20-7 (74.1%) in those games.  The 49ers-Eagles game will test both of these angles.

·  In the 18 Wild Card matchups between divisional opponents since 2003, road teams own a 12-7 ATS (63.2%) edge (8-11 SU); however, hosts are on a five-game outright winning streak. The Packers-Bears tilt is the lone WC divisional contest for 2026.

Wild Card Trends by Seed Number

·   #4 seeds are on a 24-14 SU and 24-12-2 ATS (66.7%) run over the last 19 Wild Card seasons, perhaps underrated in the eyes of the experts. This year’s #4 seeds are Pittsburgh in the AFC and the Panthers in the NFC.

·  Nothing else considered, in blanket wagering, the #4 AFC seed has been the best home betting option of the four choices, going 13-7 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last 20 seasons. This includes Houston’s 32-12 upset win over the Chargers last year. Pittsburgh is the #4 in the AFC for 2026, hosting, ironically, Houston.

· Dating back to 2013, and after a pair of Unders on totals a year ago, that option on totals in the #3-#6 matchup is 20-5-1 (80%). For the record, the road teams are on a 15-9 SU and 18-6 ATS (75%) surge in the series as well. The #3-#6 matchups for 2026 are Bills-Jaguars and 49ers-Eagles.

·  #3 seeds that were an underdog or less than a 3.5-point favorite are just 2-15 SU and ATS (12.5%) since ‘04, scoring just 17.4 PPG in the process. Tampa Bay lost outright 23-20 as a 3-point favorite last season to the Commanders. #3 Jacksonville is a 1.5-point home dog to Buffalo.

· In the five expanded playoff seasons, we’ve only seen the #7 seed win outright once, that being in 2024 in Green Bay’s upset of Dallas. Overall, the #2 seeds are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS (70%) in the matchup. This year’s #2 seeds are Chicago (vs. Green Bay ironically) and New England (vs. LA Chargers).

Wild Card Trends Regarding Totals

·  Over and Under are exactly split on totals since the playoff expansion five years ago, going 15-15 (50%). Last year, we had five Unders against just one Over.

·  The common pattern in the last 14 years has shown that when road teams have won outright, Under the total has a record of 24-8-2 (75%)! Home teams scored just 16.4 PPG in those road wins.

· Of the last 43 Wild Card games with totals of 44 or higher, Under the total is 32-15-1 (68.1%). This includes a perfect 5-0 record in ’25. All the games except Houston-Pittsburgh have totals of 44.5 or more as of Wednesday, 1/7.

·  Eight of the last 11 WC games with closing totals of 40 or below went Over the total, and Houston-Pittsburgh could test that trend on Monday.

· Of the last 42 Sunday Wild Card games, 29 have gone Under the total (69%). Of the last 37 Saturday games, Over the total is 20-16-1 (55.6%). The prior MNF playoff contests went 4-1 Under the total (80%).

·  In WC games expected to be tight, or with lines in the +3 to -3 range for home teams, Under the total is on a run of 22-11-1 (66.7%). The Packers-Bears, Bills-Jaguars, and Texans-Steelers games all fit this bill as of Wednesday.

·  Recent Wild Card games not expected to be as competitive, or those with lines of -7 or higher, have gone 8-4 Over in the last 12. Consider the Rams-Panthers game total if you find merit in this angle.

Stats Generated in Wild Card Playoff Games

· Only seven home teams that have hit the 21-point mark have lost in the last 24 years of Wild Card playoff action, going 59-7 SU and 49-16-1 ATS (75.4%). Last year, there were five wins on this angle. The four home teams for this weekend, other than Carolina and Pittsburgh, are all expected to score 21 or more points according to the odds/total combination.

·  Only three home teams that scored 20 points or fewer in a Wild Card playoff game have won in the last 23 years, going 3-37 SU and 3-38-1 ATS (7.3%)! The last time it happened was in 2018, a 10-3 decision with Buffalo edging Jacksonville. The Panthers and Steelers are each only expected to score 18.3 points this weekend, according to the odds/total combination.

·  The magic point total for road teams is 20 points. Teams coming up shy of that in the Wild Card round have lost 15 straight games outright and are 6-50 SU and 7-49 ATS (12.5%) since 2002. Road teams reaching that 20-point total were 38-22 SU and 45-13-2 ATS (77.6%) in that same span, including Washington’s win last year.

·  Teams that gain more first downs in the game are 41-13-1 ATS (70.7%) in the last 11 Wild Card playoff seasons

· Teams that win the time of possession battle are on a 21-8 SU and ATS (72.4%) run in the Wild Card playoffs.

· Wild Card playoff teams that gain more yards rushing in their playoff games are 27-7 SU and 26-8 ATS (76.5%) over the last six seasons. At the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a Wild Card playoff game are just 20-10 SU and 21-9 ATS (70%) in their last 30. If you consider the foundation behind this, getting big plays on the ground isn’t as important as controlling the line of scrimmage or piling up rushing yards to put teams away late.

·  Putting up big passing numbers in Wild Card playoff games has not been as big a part of a recipe of success the last eight seasons, since those teams are only 22-20 SU and 25-17 ATS (59.5%) in that time. Teams often amass big passing numbers in catch-up mode.

·  Alternatively, teams that make the most of their passing opportunities or hit big plays are far more successful in the long term. In fact, teams gaining more yards per pass attempt in a Wild Card playoff game are 53-13 SU and 51-14-1 ATS (75.6%) since 2012. This is obviously a huge stat to try and project pregame.

·  The YPA stat has proven just slightly less valuable than turnovers in Wild Card playoff games, as teams committing fewer turnovers are 28-8 SU and ATS (77.8%) since 2015. In the rest of the games during that span, the turnover differential was even. 

Summarizing these in-game stats findings, clearly, the ability to get big plays through the passing game is the most important ingredient. If you’re wondering, offensive YPA stats edges for the 2026 WC matchups belong to the Rams, Packers, Bills, 49ers, Patriots, and Texans. Defensive edges go to the same teams except Philadelphia (over SF) and LA Chargers (over NE). Also, when handicapping these contests, try to formulate each team’s expected scoring output. Home teams reaching 21 points is crucial, same with road teams getting to 20. Which teams for this weekend can for sure do that?

Teams’ Regular Season Won-Lost Record Trend

·  If the last eight Wild Card playoff seasons have proven anything, it’s that regular season records do not matter all that much when it comes to determining who will win. In fact, teams that won more regular-season games are just 20-16 SU and 14-22-1 ATS (38.9%) in that span. In six matchups, the teams shared the same won-lost mark.

·  For 2026, three hosts won fewer games than their opponents: the Panthers, Eagles, and Steelers. Home teams that won fewer games during the season than their Wild Card opponents are on a 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS (60%) run.

·   Home teams that won nine games or fewer during the regular season are on a 9-6 SU and 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) run in the Wild Card playoffs. Strangely, hosts that won 12 or more games have a far worse record at 13-9 SU and 8-14 ATS (42.9%) since 2015. However, they did win all three last year. Note that the Patriots and Jaguars both won at least 12 games, while the Panthers were 8-9.

·  Keep in mind that the schedule expanded to 17 games a few years ago, but still, teams that won 11 or more games and were forced to play on the road in the Wild Card round were 1-3 SU and ATS a year ago and are just 14-21 SU and 15-19-1 ATS (44.1%) since 2008. Alternatively, Wild Card visitors that won nine games or fewer in the regular season again boast a superior point spread record of 11-15 SU but 16-9-1 ATS (64%) since 2002. The 11+ win road teams for this weekend are the Rams, Bills, 49ers, Chargers, Texans. The Packers are the only road playoff team that won fewer than 10 games this year.

·  There have been 13 Wild Card games since 2006 that have matched pairs of teams that each won at least 11 games in the regular season. In those games, road teams are 5-8 SU but boast an 8-5 ATS (61.5%) mark. The Bills-Jaguars, 49ers-Eagles, and Chargers-Patriots matchups all have that distinction for ’26.

Teams’ Regular Season Offensive Statistics Trends

·  Teams that scored more points per game during the regular season have gone just 24-18 SU and 18-24 ATS (42.9%) in the last eight years, including 10-19 ATS (34.5%) when favored. Note that the Bears and 49ers outscored their WC opponents this season but are not favored.

·  Rushing statistics have meant something when it comes to Wild Card playoff success lately, as teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are 23-11 SU and ATS (67.6%) since 2020, including 13-4 ATS (76.5%) as dogs. Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush were 21-13 SU and ATS (61.8%) in that span. For those wondering, the only underdogs for this weekend that averaged more RYPG are the Bears.

·  Wild Card teams with an edge in offensive passing yardage are 23-19 SU but only 18-24 ATS (42.9%) since 2018. More efficient passing yards per attempt have gotten hot in the last seven Wild Card seasons, going 24-14 SU and 22-16 ATS (57.9%). The highlight of this group is a 9-3 ATS road underdog record. I noted these before, but a reminder on the teams with edges in this category in 2026 are Rams, Packers, Bills, 49ers, Patriots, and Texans. The 49ers are the only road dog of the group.

·  Since the playoffs expanded to 14 teams in 2021, teams that generated more yardage overall offensively have struggled in the Wild Card round, going 17-13 SU but 12-18 ATS (40%). When considering yards per play, teams with better offenses in this regard are on a 21-15 ATS (58.3%) surge currently, and road underdogs with this edge are on a 16-5-1 ATS (76.2%) surge since ’03. San Francisco holds a 0.3 YPP edge over Philadelphia for Sunday’s matchup.

·  Offensive yards per point hasn’t proven to be as effective an offensive statistical indicator as other categories, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point offensively are only 26-20 SU and 20-26 ATS (43.5%) in the Wild Card playoffs dating back to 2017.

·  Teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponent are 17-13 ATS (56.7%) since 2021 in Wild Card playoff games, including 5-1 SU and ATS last season. If you’re looking to ride this hot angle, this year’s advantages belong to LA Rams, Chicago, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, New England, and Houston.

·  Teams that converted third-down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are 23-7 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) in the last five expanded Wild Card playoff seasons. As this seems to be becoming a more and more important angle, so something to watch for this weekend. The teams with edges in this category are LA Rams, Green Bay, Buffalo, San Francisco, New England, and Pittsburgh. The 49ers, Packers, Chargers, and Bills were the league’s best in this stat this season, in order.

Teams’ Regular Season Defensive Statistics Trends

·  Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are on a 17-13 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) run in Wild Card playoff action over the last five seasons since playoff expansion. However, they were 1-5 SU and ATS last season, so perhaps tread lightly. The teams with the better scoring defenses for this weekend are the LA Rams, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, New England, and Houston.

·  Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per game are 19-9 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) over the last five seasons in the Wild Card round. Those that allowed fewer yards per rush were a bit worse at the betting window at 17-13 ATS (56.7%). This is an angle worth considering, since good rushing defenses can force opposing offenses to become one-dimensional. For 2026, the teams with edges in both stats are LA Rams, Green Bay, Jacksonville, New England, and Houston.

·  Wild Card teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed are just 17-17 SU and ATS (50%) over the last six seasons in this playoff round. Defensive pass efficiency is a curious statistic in that teams who’ve held the edge in this category are just 18-22 ATS (45%) in the last 40 tries. If you recall, this was a far more influential offensive statistic.

·  Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively have gone just 18-20 SU and 19-19 ATS (50%) in the Wild Card round since 2019. However, those WC teams that held an edge in overall yards allowed per play have been far more successful at 18-12 SU and 21-9 ATS (70%) since playoff expansion in 2021. For those curious, for this weekend, the teams with edges in defensive YPP are LA Rams, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, LA Chargers, and Houston.

· Wild Card teams that made opposing offenses work harder, or those that allowed more offensive yards per point, have won their Wild Card playoff games at a 15-15 SU and 16-14 ATS (53.3%) rate over the last five seasons.

·  Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are on a 16-26 ATS (38.1%) skid since 2017 in Wild Card playoff games. Perhaps the somewhat fluky nature of turnover luck has a way of turning at playoff time. For the record, Chicago, Jacksonville, Houston, and LA Rams all ranked in the top 5 in the NFL in turnovers forced.

·  Stopping third-down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season has also proven to be an irrelevant statistic in the Wild Card playoffs, as teams with edges in this are just 13-25 ATS (34.2%) dating back to 2019. The teams with edges in this, and potential fade opportunities, are the Rams, Packers, Jaguars, 49ers, Chargers, and Texans.

Combination System Using Offensive YPA, Offense 3rd downs, and Defensive PPG

·  Using our most impactful stat angles from above, teams that threw for more yards per passing attempt, converted third downs more efficiently on offense and allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are on a 19-5 SU and 18-6 ATS (75%) run in Wild Card playoff action since 2010. The 2026 teams with edges in all three categories are the LA Rams, Green Bay, and New England.

Summary

Although it takes up a lot of space in the article, it’s clear that many of the analyzed statistics don’t carry as much weight as others. However, offensive pass efficiency, scoring defense, and rushing defense edges are worth noting. That said, the line-range trends, seed angles, and all the other trends and systems I noted in the overall playoff article earlier this week must be given strong consideration when finalizing your plays. If you’re just simply confused after reading all of this, stay tuned for Friday, when I will release my own personal best bets for the six games after deciphering all of the info. It should be another exciting Super Wild Card weekend to bet the games regardless of what happens. Good luck, and check back next week for the divisional round information.

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