The UFC returns for its first card of 2026 with a new broadcast partner, a new era, and an interim lightweight title fight that’s sure to spark debate. While the original co-main event between Amanda Nunes and Kayla Harrison was scrapped due to injury, UFC 324 still delivers a slate of competitive matchups, headlined by Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett.

From top to bottom, this card reflects the international, future-facing tone of the new “Paramount era.” But make no mistake, this is still high-stakes business for us bettors looking to start the year on the right foot.

The Fighting With Numbers model resets with a clean slate for 2026, but it’s coming off a strong 2025 campaign (64% accuracy, 25% ROI). And that momentum continues with a handful of value spots this week worth exploring.

Reminder, the First Strike podcast is available now, wherever you listen and on YouTube with special guest Jordan Sherwood this week with full breakdowns, betting angles, and more.

Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson

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Welcome back, El Modelo. And what better way to start the new year than with a live underdog in the very first fight on the card.

Alex Perez has had a rough couple of years—just 3-5 since 2020—but look at the murderers’ row he’s faced: Figueiredo, Pantoja, Mokaev, Taira, Almabayev. That strength of schedule matters. He’s battle-tested, even if the record doesn’t shine.

Charles Johnson steps in off a TKO win over Lone’er Kavanagh and holds a 7-5 UFC record himself, including a notable win over current champ Joshua Van. He’ll bring a 5-inch reach advantage into this one (70” to 65”).

xR% comparison:

  • Perez: 59%
  • Johnson: 53%

Not a huge gap, but Johnson dipping into that bottom half is worth noting. On paper, the striking is razor thin:

  • Perez: 4.15 landed per minute, +0.93 differential, 3.22 absorbed
  • Johnson: 4.73 landed per minute, +0.95 differential, 3.78 absorbed

Both have 4 knockdowns. Only Johnson has ever been knocked down.

But the edge shows up in the grappling:

  • Perez: 74% control rate, 15 takedowns (48% accuracy)
  • Johnson: 22% control rate, just 6 takedowns (21% accuracy)
  • Johnson has faced a whopping 109 takedown attempts in the UFC and defending 67% of them, but Perez’s efficiency and wrestling pedigree still give him the edge.

The model projects in favor of Alex Perez with a 70% win probability. (Book implies 37%)

That’s the kind of value discrepancy we chase early and often. When the model likes a dog, it tends to like them big and the mispricing is exactly where the betting edge lives. Perez’s experience and grappling give us a strong reason to back the early upset.

Natália Silva vs Rose Namajunas

This was originally targeted as a big-name clash between Alexa Grasso and Rose Namajunas. But after Grasso withdrew in December, Natália Silva stepped in and suddenly this might be even more intriguing.

Silva is undefeated in the UFC and riding a 13-fight win streak overall, including a 2025 win over Grasso. Her last loss came all the way back in 2017. Rose, meanwhile, has gone 3-1 in her last four, most recently defeating Miranda Maverick by decision.

Stat-wise, this is a battle of rising output versus established class.

xR% comparison:

  • Silva: 80%
  • Namajunas: 59%

And this is probably a good moment to pause and explain what I mean when I talk about xR%, because it matters a lot in this matchup.

xR%, or Expected Round Percentage, is an advanced metric that estimates how often a fighter wins an average round based on the full statistical picture. Striking efficiency, control time, takedowns, pace, and opponent tendencies.

The higher the xR%, the more consistently a fighter is winning minutes and rounds, even if they’re not scoring knockdowns or finishes.

So when we talk about Silva versus Rose, this isn’t just about name value, it’s about who is actually controlling rounds on paper.

Rose has the former-champ credentials, but Silva has clearly been dominating her lane. And when it comes to striking, Silva brings real heat:

  • Silva: 5.04 significant strikes landed per minute, +2.58 differential
  • Namajunas: 3.60 landed per minute, +0.20 differential

That’s a big gap in activity and output. Rose is more of a precision striker, but Silva’s consistent pressure makes her difficult to keep at bay. Both are defensively solid, with Rose absorbing 3.40 per minute and Silva just 2.46.

Knockdown power slightly favors Rose (6 knockdowns to Silva’s 2), but neither woman has ever been knocked down in the UFC.

As for grappling:

  • Rose: 67% control rate, 28 takedowns at 51% accuracy
  • Silva: just 2 takedowns in the UFC, but she defends them at a stellar 92%

Importantly, both fighters spend over 70% of their time at distance, so don’t expect this to become a grind on the mat. Silva’s takedown defense should keep it standing, which is where she shines.

The model predicts Silva at 62% win probability. But the betting markets already have her lined around -410, which implies 90%, a significant overprice.

Even Silva by decision sits at -225 currently. This is a clear model lean, but not a betting opportunity at the moment. Silva should get it done, but with odds this steep and Rose still capable of creating moments of danger, it’s a stay-away zone.

Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong

Originally slated behind the Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes co-main, this bantamweight clash steps into the spotlight after injury reshuffled the card.

Sean O’Malley enters on a two-fight skid, both losses coming against Merab Dvalishvili, including a submission loss in June. The question is whether a long break since then has helped him regroup.

Across from him, Song Yadong returns after nearly a full year off. He last fought in February 2025, defeating Henry Cejudo via technical decision after an eye poke. Before that, he dropped a fight to current champ Petr Yan.

Tale of the tape:

  • O’Malley will have a 5-inch reach advantage (72” vs 67”).
  • xR%: O’Malley at 63%, Song at 65%. Nearly even.

Both fighters are dangerous and capable of finishing:

  • O’Malley: 6 UFC knockouts
  • Song: 5 knockouts, 1 submission

You might assume O’Malley has a clear edge in strength of schedule because of his title fights, but Song’s resume does hold up. If anything, O’Malley’s pre-Yan record is where you’ll find softer competition.

This one should be a striking showcase:

  • O’Malley spends 80% of his time at distance
  • Song: 77% at distance

Striking stats:

  • O’Malley: 6.30 significant strikes landed per minute, +2.88 differential, 6 knockdowns
  • Song: 4.58 landed, +0.58 differential, 7 knockdowns

Both have shown excellent durability. Neither has ever been knocked down in the UFC.

Where O’Malley really separates is accuracy:

  • O’Malley: 61% significant strike accuracy
  • Song: 44%

There’s not a ton of ground game from either guy. Song does carry a 59% control rate in clinch/ground time and a 74% takedown defense, but wrestling won’t likely play a big role.

Model prediction goes directly to Sean O’Malley at a 68% win probability. Odds are currently around -190, which implies 65%, a very small edge.

This is a cautious endorsement. I’ve seen odds go up to over -205 now. O’Malley is the pick, but at this price, there’s not much margin for error. If the line climbs any further, the value evaporates. For now, we’re backing Sean, but doing so carefully.

Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett

UFC 324 closes out with a high-stakes Interim Lightweight Title Fight—not exactly what was originally planned, but here we are. With Ilia Topuria dealing with legal issues, the UFC has opted for a placeholder belt between a former BMF champion and one of the most divisive rising stars in the division.

Gaethje vs Pimblett. Experience vs youth. Chaos vs charisma.

Let’s lay the foundation:

  • Age gap: Paddy is 31, Gaethje is 37. According to Fightnomics, the 6-year age difference is a critical threshold.
  • Activity: Not great for either. Both fighters have only fought twice in the last two years.
  • Records: Paddy is 7-0 in the UFC. Gaethje is a proven action fighter with a murderous row of past opponents.

Now, resume quality? That’s where things get lopsided:

  • Paddy’s last 4 opponents (Gordon, Green, Ferguson, Chandler) have a combined 5-11 record in their last four fights.
  • Gaethje’s list? A who’s who of the elite. Win or lose, he’s only fought killers.

But the question is whether all that mileage finally starts to show.

Stat check:

  • Paddy has a 3-inch reach advantage (73” vs 70”).
  • Massive gap in xR%: Paddy sits at 76%, Gaethje at 46%.

Justin sitting at below 50% is absolutely a concern for me.

Finishing potential:

  • Paddy: 5 UFC finishes (submissions & TKOs), 11 career submissions
  • Gaethje: 6 knockouts in the UFC

But Gaethje’s style comes with a cost:

  • He spends 94% of his fight time at distance, and absorbs 7.18 significant strikes per minute.
  • He lands a strong 6.59 per minute, but the -0.59 differential is a red flag.
  • In contrast, Paddy lands 5.19 per minute and absorbs only 3.10, a clean +2.08 differential.

Durability edge? Probably Paddy again.

  • Never been knocked down or stopped in the UFC.
  • Gaethje has been in wars, and the Max Holloway KO still echoes.

Grappling?

  • Minimal takedown activity from either, but Gaethje holds a 64% control rate and 68% takedown defense.
  • Paddy’s real threat lies in the submission game and he doesn’t need control time to snatch a neck.

The model is clear on this one. Paddy Pimblett: 76.81% win probability.

Odds currently have him around -220, implying 68%, so we still get an edge. Though smaller than a few weeks ago.

It’s easy to roll your eyes at Paddy’s path to the top, but the numbers here are pretty one-sided. xR%, differential, control metrics. Pimblett is simply checking more boxes.

Official prediction is Paddy Pimblett gets the win and walks away with interim gold. At current odds, we’ll include him on the bet slip, but if it drifts any higher, caution is advised.

That wraps up our look at UFC 324 and the start of the Paramount era. With a reset model and a fresh year ahead, this is a great time to establish habits, manage risk, and take advantage of mispriced spots before the market adjusts.

Be sure to check out the full breakdowns and betting analysis on the First Strike podcast available now on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts. And don’t forget to follow us on X: @TheRobbeo & @drosssports, and @VSiNLive for all the latest.

Best of luck with your bets, respect the data, and we’ll see you back next week.

Model Prediction | Win Prob.%

  • Paddy Pimblett | 76.81%
  • Sean O’Malley | 68.04%
  • Waldo Cortes-Acosta | 80.37%
  • Arnold Allen | 59.40%
  • Nikita Krylov | 79.14%
  • Umar Nurmagomedov | 78.59%
  • Alex Perez | 70.80%
  • Natália Silva | 62.41%
  • Michael Johnson | 53.82%
  • Cameron Smotherman | 56.83%
  • *in BOLD means the model says GO.

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