As always, there is going to be a plethora of information to digest on the Super Bowl matchup, from stats, matchups, and “expert” predictions, to other, more fun and entertaining tidbits. I love using historical trends and systems to handicap big sporting events, and I have shared my most valuable information with loyal VSiN followers all the way back to 2017. If you’ve been with us at any point since then, you probably recall my full Super Bowl Betting Trends & Systems article. For the purposes of our 2026 Super Bowl Betting Guide, I’ve put together a more succinct piece, highlighting my Top 15 Super Bowl Trends and Systems, and how they might factor in to this year’s matchup, Patriots versus Seahawks. These are ordered in terms of how important I think they will be regarding handicapping this year’s game. These trends cover about every option on the line/total/teaser board. At the time of this writing, as far as the line/total was concerned, we had Seattle -4.5/45.5 according to DraftKings.

Trend #1 – The team that is the better playoff seed is just 2-17-2 ATS (10.5%) in the last 28 Super Bowl games!
Steve’s thoughts: I have to convince bettors that this trend is for real. It is almost too insane to believe, especially if you harken back to the early 90s, when the better team always won by spectacular margins, it seemed. Similarly, the team with the better playoff seed is just 2-17-2 ATS (10.5%) in the last 29 Super Bowl games, with equal-seeded matchups eight times in that span. It seems that this huge game has become not so much a confirmation of a body of work, but rather a single game decided by which team executes better on that particular day. These premier trends will be in play as #1-seeded Seattle takes on #2-seeded New England.

Trend #2 – Over the past 24 years, underdogs own an 18-6 ATS (75%) edge in the Super Bowl, including 14-4 ATS in the last 18.  
Steve’s thoughts: This follows with trend #1 above, as it seems that the motivation of being an underdog in the season’s biggest game on TV’s biggest stage is a solid motivator. Philadelphia added a convincing win to this angle last year. Can New England pull off another shocker?

Trend #3 – The outright winner is 49-7-3 ATS (87.5%) in the 58 previous Super Bowls.
Steve’s thoughts: This 87.5% mark is the highest of any playoff round. Interestingly, one of those ATS losses did occur as recently as 2022, when Cincinnati became the first underdog to cover a point spread without winning on a Super Bowl line of less than 6 points. The general thought is that champions typically leave little doubt in this game. Consider this if you have any concerns about laying points with Seattle, or taking a moneyline wager on the underdog Patriots.

Trend #4 – Teams that hold an edge in at least three of four key statistical categories are 41-6 SU and 37-9-1 ATS (80.4%). 
Steve’s thoughts: Over the years, I have found that there is a certain “recipe” for success in the Super Bowl, and it stems from the four key stat categories: Time of Possession, Rushing Yardage, Yards per Pass Attempt, and Turnover Differential.  The Eagles swept the four categories last year in routing Kansas City. Can you see either of this year’s teams having the edge in all three? For those of you looking to project this type of information for 2026, turnovers can be hard to project, although the amount of pressure each team’s defense puts on an opposing quarterback can prove to be a good indicator. The other stats should be relatively predictable for any advanced handicapper or service regularly using sophisticated statistical models for simulation. I did so in another forecast article, which gave New England the TOP & rushing-yardage edge and Seattle the YPA edge.

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Trend #5 – In the last 24 seasons, on 6-point teasers, there has been a huge separation as favorites are just 13-11 (54.2%) while underdogs are 21-3 (87.5%). 
Steve’s thoughts: An 87.5% teaser trend moving a line just 6 points is nothing to take lightly. Consider this as you craft your wagers for the 2026 game. An underdog 6-point teaser would put New England at +10.5, likely a very attractive wager for many bettors. Combine that with an Under 51.5 or Over 38.5, and you could have the makings for a winning bet. Both total options have hit at over a 2/3 rate in Super Bowls.

Trend #6 – New England is on an 11-4 ATS surge versus solid rushing defenses allowing less than 3.9 YPR
Steve’s thoughts: With a second-year QB running its offense, regardless of the success Drake Maye has enjoyed this year, you have to think that New England is going to put a lot of emphasis on the ability to run the football. Seattle has a staunch run defense, ranked #1 in the NFL in yards per rush allowed, but recent history shows the Patriots have fared well against such teams.

Trend #7 – Seattle is on a 33-17 Under the total surge, and New England is 30-20 Under the total in its last 50 games, with totals of 45 or higher
Steve’s thoughts: It’s not a coincidence that these franchises have a recent history of going Under the total in games with lofty numbers posted. These teams’ defenses have been both dominant at times and underrated at others, particularly this season. Given the choice, do you feel the head coaches in this game would prefer to rest their chances on their inexperienced Super Bowl quarterbacks or their proven defenses?

Trend #8 – New England is 38-7 SU and 33-12 ATS when riding a 3-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Steve’s thoughts: Is there an organization in pro football that has shown the ability to run hot in recent years more than the Patriots? While both teams are streaking right now going into Sunday’s game, New England has a long history of being able to stay grounded and extend winning streaks.

Trend #9 – Regarding the recent competitiveness of the Super Bowl game, of the only 19 games in history to be decided by less than a touchdown, 10 of them have been in the last 18 years.
Steve’s thoughts – Setting aside last year’s Philadelphia blowout win over Kansas City, we truly are in an era of highly competitive Super Bowl games. Let’s face it, no one likes to be embarrassed on the big stage. Coaches preach preparation and execution in the two weeks leading up to the game. Only rare physical mismatches result in blowouts at this stage.

Trend #10 – Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season have gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%) in the last 10 Super Bowl games, including Philadelphia a year ago. Seattle holds this slight edge by 1.6 PPG.
Steve’s thoughts: This trend includes Philadelphia from a year ago. If you do happen to check out my full Super Bowl Betting Trends & Systems piece, you will see that the importance of defensive statistics has far outweighed that of offensive numbers in terms of how it relates to recent Super Bowl success.  Seattle allowed fewer points than New England in the regular season, 17.2 PPG to 18.8.

Trend #11 – Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season own no edge when it comes to Super Bowl success, going 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS (14.3%) in the last 14! 
Steve’s thoughts: I just mentioned in #10 above that it is important to boast strong defensive scoring numbers recently going into Super Bowl games. It’s been quite the opposite for prolific offensive numbers. Recently, the old saying “defense wins championships” has been fruitful. Remember, defensive coordinators have two full weeks to get ready for the opposing offenses, as well as the talent to hold them down. New England holds this “edge” moderately in 2026, 379.4 YPG to 351.4.

Trend #12 – NFL teams that have won a game despite scoring less than 12 points in the victory have carried the momentum through the next game with a 22-13 SU and 23-11-1 ATS (67.6%) record.
Steve’s thoughts: This betting system appeared in the VSiN Super Bowl Analytics Report because of New England’s tight 10-7 win in the snow globe AFC title game in Denver. This isn’t just a Super Bowl, or even a playoff system. It applies to all games. Historically, teams that don’t score well but still win a game have generated nice momentum for their next contest.

Trend #13 – In the last 19 Super Bowl games in which bettors moved off of opening totals, they are 12-7 (63.2%). 
Steve’s thoughts: This trend includes a stretch of 7-1 on total moves, so perhaps this could be an emerging strategy to follow for recreational bettors. The line move winning percentages were much worse. Be sure to follow that action in the hours leading up to kick off if you tend to believe in this type of analysis. For what it’s worth, there was a downward from 46.5 to 45.5 on the total since opening on Sunday night.

Trend #14 – Over the total has converted in all seven head-to-head meetings between Seattle and New England since 2004
Steve’s thoughts: The most famous historical matchup between the Seahawks and Patriots obviously came in 2015, the Super Bowl 49 classic secured by New England, 28-24, on a last-minute interception at the goal line. That game went Over a total of 47, and all three meetings the teams have played since have as well. Interestingly, in all seven of these Overs, both teams reached the 20+ point mark.

Trend #15 – Underdogs are 5-5 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 of the Seattle-New England series
Steve’s thoughts: In addition to being a high-scoring head-to-head series lately, the Seattle-New England “rivalry” has been quite competitive as well. The most recent contest was a push on the point spread in a 23-20 Seahawks road win in 2024. Prior to that, the only favorite ATS win in the prior five games was a 1-point decision on the point spread.

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