A lot of bettors might go into a funk after the Super Bowl as their football betting season comes to an end. Don’t count me among those people, as the end of the NFL season means the Daytona 500 and a brand-new NASCAR betting season is right around the corner!
Particularly this season, coming off my best year of NASCAR simulations and betting, I couldn’t be more excited for the action to get going this weekend at the World’s Center of Racing, Daytona. If you were with VSiN for the ’25 NASCAR campaign, I’m sure you are as pumped as I am, as we pegged a record 12 outright winners (out of 36 races) on the final simulation projections, bringing +54.8 units on winnings, for an overall profit of +30.8 units for the season. The top 3, top 5 and top 10 projections were also very successful, as I will detail shortly. That said, if you’re going into this weekend thinking that handicapping Daytona is easy with stats and projections, you might want to reconsider, as it is actually the most unpredictable track on the circuit. It’s certainly fun to watch, though. Read on as I preview not only the first race of 2026 but the season as well and up some of my favorite wagers available right now.
We all just watched the 60th Super Bowl on Sunday. NASCAR runs its own “Super Bowl of Stock Car Racing” this week. It’s always a wild ride at Daytona International Speedway, as the action is unmatched on the circuit for crazy finishes, intensity and wild wrecks. This makes it rather tough to predict for bettors, especially those who rely on stats and historical data like me, but it is always a fantastic opportunity to score with big underdogs. It’s also a thrilling way to fire up the NASCAR betting season, which runs through November. Once again, I will be offering up my race simulations on VSiN for every one of the circuit’s 36 point stops. In them, I project the finishing order for all the entered drivers, as well as their average finish. Bettors can use these projections to attack every wagering option offered by most books. For this race preview, I will be comparing my early projections to the offering at DraftKings.
2025 season review
Kyle Larson won his second series title in the championship race at Phoenix in November, passing teammate William Byron with just three laps remaining as the latter experienced tire failure. Larson’s win brought a title back to Hendrick Motorsports for the first time since 2021, ending Team Penske’s three-year run. Larson won three times in 2025, tied for fifth on the circuit. Denny Hamlin led with six, followed by Shane Van Gisbergen, who took five road course events. In all, 14 drivers won races. Larson, Chase Briscoe and Ryan Blaney shared the top-5 honors, each securing 15 such finishes, while Larson and consistent Christopher Bell paced the field with 22 top-10s. Not coincidentally, Larson and Bell were the odds-on title favorites before the season at DraftKings, each coming in at +550.
In this same piece a year ago, I disappointedly shared the simulation results from the 2024 season, where I was able to peg five winners in the first 21 races for strong profits once again. However, I seemed to hit a wall at that point and went into the ’25 campaign on a 15-race “winless streak.” That skid eventually reached 23 races before Larson won at Bristol in April. From there, the betting season was phenomenal, as we pegged 12 outright winners in the final 28 races, including the season finale with Blaney taking home the checkered flag at +550! Now mind you, four of those wins were relatively easy ones from Van Gisbergen (SVG) at road courses, with one priced at -125 actually, but hey, winners are winners.
All of that said, it is important to remind readers that there are certain tracks and races where I feel more comfortable in projecting races by statistical methods. You can easily spot these by the Track Handicap-ability Grade I assign in each week’s simulation. The grades range from most predictable at Richmond and Dover, with grades of A- to F at Daytona. Yes, you read that correctly. For as much as the Daytona races are captivating, they are also a crapshoot for bettors. Consequently, betting winners are usually rewarded more handsomely with underdog prices.
I will have some statistics shortly that share with you some of my simulation factors and how they relate to actual results in the ’25 season. This data should help you find the most important things to watch for at each track, although rest assured, they are formulated accordingly on my simulations.
2026 season driver/team changes
While several teams have changed crew chiefs, unlike recent seasons, there are only a couple of driver/team changes to mention. In terms of individual drivers, Daniel Suarez of Trackhouse Racing is being replaced by rookie Connor Zilisch, who also changes the car number to 88. SVG thus also changes numbers and will be in the 87 car now, with the same team he had last year. Suarez is still on the circuit however, as he replaces Justin Haley in the No. 7 Spire Motorsports Ford.
The 2026 schedule has also undergone a few minor changes, with new stops this year at the Coronado Naval Base in San Diego and at North Wilkesboro Speedway, a former regular locale for the Cup Series. The season finale championship event also moves back to Homestead-Miami Speedway, as it was from 2002-19.
Of course, the single biggest change will be how the champion is determined, as the Cup Series will be reintroducing the playoff method known as “the Chase,” replacing the elimination-style playoffs with a 10-race showdown for 16 drivers. Again in ’26, the top 16 drivers will have their points reset for the final 10 races, with the highest points earner after the 10th race crowned champion. This method is believed to reward consistency and winning, as winners during the playoffs will see their point totals boosted by 15 points.
2026 season championship odds
Because of the new process for determining the season champion, the odds clearly reflect a less random title format. According to DraftKings, Larson (of Hendrick Motorsports) is the favorite at +400, much lower than last year. He is followed by Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing) at +450. William Byron (Hendrick) checks in at No. 3 at +550, while Christopher Bell (JGR) at +600 and Ryan Blaney (Penske, +650) round out the top five. The fact that three of those top five have never won a title needs to be given some consideration, as does the fact that the Championship Race is switching to Homestead-Miami, the track where Larson won last year. With that in mind, and based on the new format, I would have no qualms with anyone laying a current wager on Larson. He is all but certain to make the 16-driver playoff field and is a threat to win at any track he goes to.
I typically don’t like laying out futures wagers on NASCAR this early in the season, as nine months is a long time to hold money on a wager. Plus, I prefer to wait until the playoffs start to see how each contender’s season has played out. Believe me, you won’t lose a lot on the prices between now and then. That said, here are my championship tiers for the top contenders, with their DraftKings odds listed alongside:
Tier 1:
Embed from Getty ImagesKyle Larson (+400)
Tier 2:
Denny Hamlin (+450)
Ryan Blaney (+650)
William Byron (+550)
Tier 3:
Christopher Bell (+600)
Chase Briscoe (+900)
Chase Elliott (+750)
I wouldn’t go any further than that, but if I were to make any long-shot predictions on title-worthy drivers, I might include Tyler Reddick (+1400) and Chris Buescher (+3500). Reddick is 23XI’s top driver, and his team is gaining more and more each season. Buescher drives for RFK Racing, a team that could surprise some people this year, especially after his teammate Ryan Preece won the Clash exhibition race last week at Bowman-Gray Stadium.
Makinen’s race simulations for all 36 season races
You will find my initial simulation for the race, as it stood on Monday, February 10, on the NASCAR HUB on VSiN.com. This will change based on qualifying, duels and practice results happening through Saturday morning. After that all concludes, there will be a final simulation made available on the website and newsletter sometime Saturday afternoon or later. In general, the weekly format will follow this Tuesday/Saturday schedule for all 36 races.
Earlier, I shared some of the winning race projection stats, but using the simulations for picking outright winners is just one way to take advantage. I utilize them just as much for finding value in top-3 and top-5 finishes, as well as over/under finishing positions, driver vs. driver matchups and daily fantasy options. Of course, the options available to wager vary greatly by book, but the simulations are intended to address all of it.
Looking back at the simulation results of ’25, here were the projections for top-3s, top-5s and top-10s:
Top 3: FINAL simulations correctly projected 35 out of 108 top-3 finishers (32.4%)
Top 5: FINAL simulations correctly projected 79 out of 180 top-5 finishers (43.9%)
Top 10: FINAL simulations correctly projected 180 out of 360 top-10 finishers (50%)
Looking at the overall simulation projections versus actual results, this is an order of the different tracks on the Cup Series and their overall predictability using a simple average variance calculation for every driver:
1. Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval: 6.43 avg. variance
2. Gateway International Raceway: 6.44
3. Iowa Speedway: 6.49
4. New Hampshire Motor Speedway: 6.89
5. Pocono Raceway: 6.92
6. Dover International Speedway: 7.24
7. Martinsville Speedway: 7.36
8. Homestead-Miami Speedway: 7.41
9. Nashville Superspeedway: 8.36
10. Watkins Glen International: 8.38
11. Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez: 8.43
12. Sonoma Raceway: 8.49
13. Bristol Motor Speedway: 8.62
14. Darlington International Raceway: 8.7
15. Michigan Speedway: 8.83
16. Circuit of the Americas: 8.97
17. Indianapolis Motor Speedway: 9.13
18. Phoenix International Raceway: 9.28
19. Kansas Speedway: 9.47
20. Las Vegas Motor Speedway: 9.51
21. Richmond International Raceway: 10.42
22. Talladega Superspeedway: 11.22
23. Chicago Street Course: 11.5
24. Charlotte Motor Speedway: 12.1
25. Atlanta Motor Speedway: 12.46
26. Daytona International Speedway: 12.84
27. Texas Motor Speedway: 13.74
Of note on this, the overall season average variance was 9.36, so anything below that was “more predictable,” anything above was more volatile. Typically, Daytona is usually last on this list. Last year’s race at Texas was a wild one, however, and featured 12 cautions with 11 drivers unable to finish, including some expected top contenders.
By simulation factors, here are the best and worst track variances:
QUALIFYING was most important at:
1. Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval: 6.54 avg. variance
2. Iowa Speedway: 7.3
And least important at…
26. Atlanta Motor Speedway: 12.3
27. Texas Motor Speedway: 13.58
PRACTICE SPEEDS were most important at:
1. Homestead-Miami Speedway: 8 avg. variance
2. Iowa Speedway: 8.27
And least important at…
26. Talladega Superspeedway: 20.25
27. Atlanta Motor Speedway: 20.25
RECENT TRACK RATINGS were most important at:
1. Michigan Speedway: 7.33 avg. variance
2. Martinsville Speedway: 7.35
And least important at…
26. Daytona International Speedway: 12.73
27. Atlanta Motor Speedway: 13.77
RECENT TRACK DESIGNATION (similar tracks) RATINGS were most important at:
1. Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval: 7.08 avg. variance
2. Gateway International Raceway: 7.17
And least important at…
26. Atlanta Motor Speedway: 12.9
27. Daytona International Speedway: 12.98
And finally RECENT OVERALL PERFORMANCE was most important at:
1. Gateway International Raceway: 5.89 avg. variance
2. Dover International Speedway: 7.35
And least important at…
26. Charlotte Motor Speedway: 12.43
27. Daytona International Speedway: 12.86
Essentially, these five factors (considered for both driver and team), are the variables that go into my final simulations. Consider the data above as you start prepping for races throughout the year. Seeing Daytona on the “least important” ranks for a few factors illustrates how historically unpredictable the races there have been. In any case, let’s take a look at the key Daytona numbers as we look ahead to the Daytona 500…
Early look at Sunday’s Daytona 500 odds and key stats
Known as “The Great American Race,” the Daytona 500 boasts NASCAR’s biggest prize purse as well as the coveted Harley J, Earl Trophy. Plus, the first playoff ticket gets punched for the winner. Daytona International Speedway becomes the center of the racing world again by offering an unparalleled brand of racing. The track is one of the NASCAR circuit’s biggest at 2 1/2 miles around, and with speeds reaching 200+ mph on up to 31-degree track banking, it’s easy to see how the action becomes so exhilarating. There is little that compares to the freight train-like roar of the closely drafting cars flying around the oval.
No track, nor race, is more favorable to bet underdogs, as evidenced by the winners of the last five races: William Byron the last two years, Ricky Stenhouse in 2023, rookie Austin Cindric in 2022 and Michael McDowell in 2021. All four drivers went off at higher than +1600 to win. Incidentally, Byron is down to +1000 this year after his back-to-back wins, behind only favorite Denny Hamlin, who is +900 according to DraftKings. The others are each +1600 or longer this year. Keep that in mind as you search for potential big-money plays. Cindric, in particular, is known for his prowess at tracks like this.
Fundamentally, in terms of handicapping, Daytona is the only track that I assign a Handicap-Ability Grade of F to for my simulations, and not only for the surprise winners that come from out of nowhere here, but also because huge accidents, aka “big ones,” can wipe out 10-15 cars at a time, many of whom are expected contenders. In fact, last year’s race again featured sizable accidents, and in the end, 11 of the 41 entrants failed to finish with a designation of crash.
In terms of statistics at any track, as a race bettor, I easily prefer recency numbers compared with longevity figures, and I shape the formulas that go into my simulations accordingly. Looking back at career numbers at Daytona, Hamlin (+900) and Byron (+1000) are the men to beat. Both have a pair of wins in this prestigious event. Still, their average finishes in all Daytona starts are a modest 18.0 for Hamlin and 21.5 for Byron. In fact, Bubba Wallace (+1800), Alex Bowman (+1800) and Ty Gibbs (+3500) show better average finish numbers than Hamlin among drivers who have run more than five Daytona races, with Wallace topping the list at 14.4.
However, I prefer to look more closely at what drivers have accomplished lately at each track. In fact, I typically don’t go back much more than three years in my mental handicapping. These recent performances are what go into figuring out my race simulations. Along those lines, Joey Logano (+1200) tops my handicapped track rating, followed by Chris Buescher (+2500) and Kyle Busch (+1400). In terms of the track designation ratings, which include other similar tracks, in this case, Talladega, Austin Cindric (+1600) sets the pace, followed by Logano (+1200) and Wallace (+1800). Besides qualifying and practice speeds, the only other major statistical category that goes into projecting my race finishes is momentum, and there, Kyle Larson (+1000), the defending series champ, is ahead of the field, followed by Christopher Bell (+2200) and Chase Briscoe (+2000).
Incidentally, the last 10 Daytona races, including those run in summer, have found eight winners. That list does not include some of the series’ biggest names like Larson, Hamlin, Elliott, Logano and Busch, so you can rest assured that there will be no shortage of hunger from anyone in the field on Sunday. That hunger could keep them among the contenders on Sunday, assuming they can avoid trouble. That is, of course, the big question mark for every car in the field.
Qualifying for the Daytona 500 takes on a different look than all other races, as only the top two cars in terms of qualifying lap speed earn their positions on the front row. The rest of the field is set by two 50-lap shootout events held on Thursday. This year’s front row will be decided on Wednesday evening. However, I caution you not to overreact to the starting positions, as they have little to nothing to do with how drivers finish. In fact, none of the last 25 Daytona 500 pole-sitters has finished better than fourth, and the average starting spot for the last 13 winners of this race has been 12.5. The last pole winner to win the Daytona 500 was Dale Jarrett all the way back in February 2000.
Typically, I love to watch the duel races on Thursday night, not only because they help set the field, but it gives bettors a good idea of which drivers have a good feel for how their cars work in the draft and with different drafting partners. It helps set the stage for Sunday. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which will assuredly change after the duels and practice sessions), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Briscoe (+2000), Logano (+1200), Buescher (+2500), Cindric (+1600), Byron (+1000)
Top long shots (+2500 or higher): Briscoe (+2500), Reddick (+3000), Gibbs (+3500) Stenhouse (+3500), Josh Berry (+4000)
Favorites to struggle: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, William Byron
The 500-mile event at the World’s Epicenter of Racing is set for 2:30 p.m. on Sunday.
Be sure to visit VSiN’s NASCAR Hub for this week’s full initial simulation. All sims will appear there during the season.
The post Daytona 500 and NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview appeared first on VSiN.
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