Game: Florida State Seminoles vs. Clemson Tigers

Date: February 21st at 12:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: The CW Network

The Clemson Tigers have hit a rough stretch, dropping three straight games. They’ll host rival Florida State Seminoles on Saturday, looking to regain momentum as the regular season winds down.

Florida State enters on a two-game winning streak, climbing back to .500 at 13-13 overall with a 6-7 record in ACC play. This qualifies as a Quad 1 opportunity for the Seminoles, who are just 2-9 against such opponents this season. FSU is averaging 80.3 points per game (66th in Division I) while allowing 78.2 points per contest (274th nationally).

Clemson sits at 20-7 overall and 10-4 in conference play. From the Tigers’ perspective, Florida State grades out as a Quad 3 opponent, a category in which Clemson is 4-0 this season. The Tigers are averaging 74.9 points per game (174th in Division I) while allowing just 65.4 points per contest (13th nationally).

This shapes up as a critical game for Clemson, as they can’t afford many more slip-ups in matchups they are expected to win.

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Betting Overview

Clemson is listed fairly consistently as an 8.5-point favorite across the board. On the moneyline, Florida State is available at +385 (FanDuel), while Clemson is hovering around -400 (Bet365). The total has shown little movement, holding steady at 145.5.

KenPom Ratings

There is a noticeable gap between these teams in the KenPom rankings, with Clemson sitting 35th nationally at a +19.89 net rating, while Florida State ranks 78th with a +10.63 net rating.

The Tigers hold an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 116.7 (73rd nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 96.8 (18th nationally). The Seminoles, meanwhile, post an adjusted offensive efficiency of 115.6 (84th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency mark of 105.0 (88th nationally).

Betting Trends

The Clemson Tigers have dominated this series against the Florida State Seminoles, winning eight of the last 10 meetings dating back to 2020 and covering in eight of those contests as well. The over has held a slight edge in that span, cashing in six of the last 10 matchups.

FSU sits at 14-11-1 ATS this season, including a 5-3 mark on the road, all as underdogs. The Seminoles are 12-7-1 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 7-5-1 ATS in ACC play. Totals have narrowly leaned toward the under overall, hitting in 14 of 26 games. On the road, totals have split evenly at four apiece. With 2–3 days of rest, the under has connected in 12 of 20 contests. In conference games, the over has hit in seven of 13.

Clemson is also 14-11-1 ATS, posting a 5-7-1 record at home, all as favorites. The Tigers are 8-8-1 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 8-5-1 ATS in ACC action. The under has been the stronger trend in Clemson games, cashing in 16 of 26 overall. At home, the under has hit in nine of 13 contests. With 2–3 days of rest, the under has connected in 10 of 17 games and nine of 14 in conference play.

Final Thoughts

With Clemson entering this matchup in what feels like a must-win situation, I expect a focused and urgent effort from the Tigers. This sets up a strong spot for them to bounce back and cover the number. While the under trends are compelling on paper, I’m staying away from the total in this matchup.