New Mexico vs. Nevada

Some games will mean more than others as we go throughout the rest of the season and some games will mean a lot more to one team than the other. That is precisely the case in this game with New Mexico vs. Nevada. New Mexico is a bubble team in the minds of most. Of the 121 sources at The Bracket Matrix, 54 of them have the Lobos in the NCAA Tournament. This road game in Reno is a big one, as it’s a game that New Mexico should win, but winning on the road in the Mountain West can be tough.

As solid as this conference is most years, only one team – Utah State – is pretty much assured of a bid regardless of the outcome in the Mountain West Conference Tournament. For the league to get a second team in, it may very well come down to that tourney in Las Vegas next month. But, the Lobos can strengthen their case with a win Tuesday night.

This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.

This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 23, 5:30 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.

New Mexico vs. Nevada (-1.5, 152.5)

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10 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)

These two teams met in Albuquerque back on Jan. 24 and the Lobos won that game 80-73 on the strength of an 18-point differential from beyond the arc. New Mexico was 12-of-28 from 3 and Nevada was just 6-of-23. However, New Mexico scored 80 points and was just 9-of-27 at the rim. Eric Olen’s team basically got whatever shot they wanted in that game, but had some issues finishing off bunnies.

For the season, New Mexico is shooting over 58% on Close Two shot attempts per Torvik, so they really did underperform in that department…and still scored 80 points. That’s an impressive performance, including a solid 20-of-27 at the free throw line. Nevada’s inconsistency from game to game, and even possession to possession, was also on display that night. The Wolf Pack led by eight early in the second half, but then trailed by four points five minutes later.

That’s been the Achilles heel for Steve Alford’s team. They are a top-five Mountain West team in several categories during conference play, including adjusted offensive efficiency, 3P%, TO%, ORB%, FT Rate, FT%, and eFG% defense. They really don’t have the statistical profile of a 10-6 team in MWC action. They just beat Utah State. But, they also got blown out by San Jose State the game prior.

Personally, I think New Mexico is the most dangerous team in the conference and a team that nobody would want to see in the first round of the NCAA Tournament if the Lobos can sneak in. Olen is a terrific head coach and his team is second in adjusted offensive efficiency and third in adjusted defensive efficiency in league action. They are shooting over 39% from 3 and take a lot of them. They also have the highest TO% differential in the conference, so they’re good at getting extra possessions and winning in the shot volume department.

The Wolf Pack only got 26 minutes from Tayshawn Comer in the first game, as he had some foul trouble. He’s one of three guys averaging double figures for Nevada with 12.4 PPG. Corey Camper Jr. had 20 in the first game against the Lobos and has averaged 17.7 PPG. Elijah Price has pulled down just under nine rebounds per contest and chipped in better than 12 PPG.

New Mexico is led by freshmen, another reason why they continue to be dangerous, as they keep improving game after game. Jake Hall, who is shooting nearly 45% from 3, leads the team with 15.9 PPG. Double-double machine Tomislav Buljan is averaging 11.9 PPG with 9.8 RPG. Fellow freshman, 5-foot-10 spark plug Uriah Tennette, is shooting almost 86% at the free throw line.

New Mexico vs. Nevada Prediction

New Mexico really is a dangerous team in this conference, as their statistical profile is quite strong and they excel in a lot of the right areas, particularly TO% and 3P%. Olen is also a rising star in the coaching world and I trust him in a rematch game, especially one where the Lobos got a lot of the looks that they wanted in the offensive halfcourt between 3-pointers and attempts at the rim.

Pick: New Mexico +1.5

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