This past week, I reintroduced my much-anticipated annual three-part series on key betting data for the college basketball conference tournaments. In it, I covered the 16 mid-major conferences that tipped off their tournaments between March 1st and March 8th. In this second part, I will be covering the 10 mid-major conferences starting their tournaments a bit later, specifically March 9th or beyond. The third part in the series, covering the power conferences, will be released right afterward. 

In opening part 1, I explained how many bettors and fans find the two-week span of conference tournament games even more exhilarating than the postseason action. There was already some great action last week, and we haven’t even tapped into the more prominent conferences yet. 

For those of you who tend to invest more heavily in this time period than you will later in March, this conference tournament betting data, specifically team performance records, trends, and systems and made just for you.

The angles that I have chosen to look at focus on three key areas, with combinations of each in some cases. Those areas were bye games, rounds, and line ranges. 

A reminder of the general thoughts I introduced last week. Bettors need to understand the value of having a bye in conference tournaments is typically significant, especially when they are believed to be the better team. In fact, heading into the 2026 action, conference tournament favorites off a bye were 394-121 SU & 274-233 ATS (54%) over the last six seasons against teams that played earlier in that tournament. That is a winning wager without anything else considered. Remember that when you try to project chances for upsets earlier in these tournaments, especially if you are led to believe the underdog may have picked up momentum from beating a lesser team in a “play-in” type of game.

Besides that, in search of other prominent systems for readers to take advantage of, I was able to uncover two incredible systems that have developed in recent years of conference tournament action regarding extreme scoring totals from the prior game’s win. They read as follows:

1. Conference tournament favorites coming off a tourney win scoring 90 points or more are on an incredible 73-16 SU and 64-24-1 ATS (72.7%) run dating back to 2017! 

2. Conference tournament underdogs coming off a tourney win allowing 55 points or fewer are on a brutal 29-92 SU and 43-77 ATS (35.8%) skid dating back to 2020! 

Note: All of these betting systems included games heading into the respective 2026 tournaments. 

The leagues covered in this second mid-major piece include:

AMERICAN ATHLETIC – March 11
ATLANTIC 10 – March 11
BIG WEST – March 11
CONFERENCE USA – March 10
IVY LEAGUE – March 14
MAC – March 12
MEAC – March 11
MOUNTAIN WEST – March 11
SWAC – March 9
WAC – March 11 

Be sure to stay apprised of the conference tournament action by visiting those specially crafted pages over the couple of weeks on VSiN.com

AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Key Trend(s)

·   Opening round single-digit favorites are just 8-15-1 ATS (34.8%) in their last 24 tries in the AAC tourney.

·   In the 10-year history of the AAC tourney, Under the total is 7-3-1 (70%) in the championship game. Favorites are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS (72.7%) in those contests, allowing just 61.5 PPG.

·   It’s not a frequent occurrence, as the AAC has been a relatively lower-scoring league, but totals of 150 or more in the tourney have gone 6-2 Under (72.7%) since 2016.

ATLANTIC 10

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Key Trend(s)

·   The first round of the A-10 tournament is the only one in which underdogs have fared well historically, going 13-12 SU and 18-6-1 ATS (75%) since 2015.

·   The Atlantic 10 is one of just a few conferences that hosts a “second round” in its tournament. Favorites have been nearly automatic in this round since 2014, going 38-5 SU. Those laying 5.5-points or less are on an incredible 20-2 SU and 18-4 ATS (81.8%) surge.

·   Atlantic 10 favorites are on a run of 23-5 SU and 20-8 ATS (71.4%) in the quarterfinal round.

·   Favorites have also thrived in the semifinals of the A-10 tourney, 14-6 SU and 12-8 ATS (60%) in the last 10 brackets. However, they were 0-2 ATS last year.

·   A-10 totals of 144 or higher have been predictably high scoring, going 22-10 Over the total (68.8%) since 2014, including 4-0 in 2025.

BIG WEST

Key Trend(s)

·   Since the recent expansion of the Big West tournament back in 2021, teams off of byes in earlier rounds have gone 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS (57.1%).

·  There has been a significant benchmark line point in recent years of the Big West tourney, and that has been 7.5 points. Favorites of 7.5 points or more are 19-2 SU and 12-8-1 ATS (60%) since 2014, while underdogs of 7 points or less have gone 37-25-3 ATS (59.7%) in that same span.

·  Totals of 140 or less in the Big West tourney are 17-7 Under (70.8%) since 2014.

CONFERENCE USA

Key Trend(s)

·   In Conference USA’s ever-changing field, favorites have been a reliable wager over the last 10 years, going 73-28 SU and 61-39-1 ATS (61%) during that stretch. Those laying 7-points or more are on a 24-3 SU and 20-7 ATS (74.1%) run.

·  Teams off a bye in earlier round(s) are on a 36-9 SU and 29-16 ATS (64.4%) run in the CUSA tourney versus teams that have already played.

·  Conference USA tournament games have gone Under the total at a 41-27 (60.3%) rate since 2018. Those with totals of more than 147 are on a 19-7 UNDER (73.1%) surge.

IVY LEAGUE

Key Trend(s)

·  The previous seven Ivy League tourneys have shown a distinct pattern regarding rounds and totals. Championship games are 5-2 Over the total (71.4%), while semifinal games are 9-5 Under the total (64.3%).

·  Totals of 143 or more are on an 8-3 Under the total (72.7%) surge in the brief Ivy League bracket.

·  Ivy League tourney favorites of 4 points or more have gone 12-1 outright (7-5-1 ATS, 58.3%).

MID-AMERICAN

Key Trend(s)

·   Favorites of 4.5 points or more in the MAC tourney boast a record of 39-6 SU since 2017, to go along with a respectable ATS record of 26-18-1 (59.1%). Favorites of 4-points or fewer are on a 9-16 SU and 6-19 ATS skid (24%).

·   The 2020 MAC tournament fell victim to COVID-19. However, since then, favorites overall are on a major roll, 17-5 SU and 13-9 ATS (59.1%). That said, MAC title game favorites have lost four straight ATS.

·   The semifinal round of the MAC tournament has been the most predictable as far as totals are concerned, 13-7 Under the total (65%) since ’14.

MID-EASTERN ATHELTIC

Key Trend(s)

·  Small underdogs of 5 points or less are on a highly profitable 15-9 SU and 20-4 ATS (83.3%) run up through the quarterfinal round of the MEAC tournament.

·   MEAC Semifinal favorites are on an 11-4 SU and 10-5ATS (66.7%) surge.

·  Nine of the last 11 (81.8%) MEAC Championship games went Under the total

·  Extreme totals have shown definitive Under results in the MEAC tournament since 2015, with totals of more than 148 showing 13-3 Under (81.3%), and those less than 132 going 10-3 Under (76.9%).

MOUNTAIN WEST

Key Trend(s)

·   Since 2011, Mountain West Conference tourney favorites of 5.5 points or less are on a 46-25 ATS (64.8%) surge. Only five of the last 34 such games have resulted in outright upsets.

·   MWC teams facing an opponent that had an earlier round bye are just 3-21 SU and 9-15 ATS (37.5%) as underdogs of fewer than 12 points since 2014. In all other line scenarios, including when favored, they are 11-0 ATS (100%), including San Jose State’s ATS win as a 15.5-point underdog versus New Mexico in 2025.

·   MWC Semifinal favorites are on a current run of 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%).

·   The last seven MWC title games went Under the total (100%).

·   Lofty totals of more than 150 in the MWC tourney are on a 9-2 Under (81.8%) surge.

SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC

Key Trend(s)

·   The SWAC tournament has proven to be quite chalky over the last eight years, with favorites of 3 points or more on a 37-9 SU and 30-14-2 ATS (68.2%) run.

·   SWAC semifinal favorites boast a record of 18-3 SU and 14-6-1 ATS (70%) since 2014.

·   Favorites in the SWAC title game are on a 2-11 ATS (15.4%) skid and have lost five of the last six outright.

·   The last four SWAC tournaments have been generally lower-scoring brackets, with 19 of 30 games going Under (63.3%). Of those 30 games, those with totals of 134+ are on a 12-4 Umder (75%) surge.

WESTERN ATHLETIC

Key Trend(s)

·   WAC teams coming off an earlier round bye and have been favored have gone 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%).

·   Only three WAC tournament underdogs of 3 points or more have won outright in the last 12 years, going 3-57 SU and 22-38 ATS (36.7%), including 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS a year ago.

·   WAC championship favorites are on a 12-2 SU and ATS (85.7%) surge, with the only two losses coming in 2021 and 2023 with 1-point dogs winning.·   Totals of higher than 147 are on a 12-6 Under (66.7%) run in the WAC tourney.

View Steve Makinen’s Early Mid-Major Conference Tournament Betting Trends here.

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