In March, when college basketball becomes all about survival or sudden death, the agony of defeat for No. 1 seeds can be tough to watch. But the other side of it is often a Cinderella story for a team that pulled off the improbable at long odds. Several top seeds, such as Navy in the Patriot League, already have fallen in excruciating fashion. And more favorites will soon take a fall during Championship Week, when all of the major conference tournaments are in action. It’s frequently argued that this is the best week of the season for college hoops betting, even better than the drama of next week’s first two rounds of the NCAA tournament. This week features more games from early morning in New York to late night in Las Vegas.

Conference tournaments can be complex to handicap, with teams converging on neutral courts and showing up with different levels of hope and motivation. The regular-season champs from the ACC (Duke), Big Ten (Michigan) and Big 12 (Arizona) can lose this week and still be assured of No. 1 seeds in the field of 68. Other teams have far more on the line.

Beware of the ‘dogs. The teams with the most to play for are those which accomplished less in the regular season and get another shot at a conference tournament title. The underdogs are dangerous and playing with desperation.

I’ll take a shot at breaking down five of this week’s conference tournament brackets (using odds from Circa Sports and DraftKings):

ACC

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It didn’t seem possible that Duke — after losing No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg, No. 4 pick Kon Knueppel and three other players to the NBA Draft — could be better this season. But the Blue Devils are 29-2, with the losses by a total of four points, and will be seeded No. 1 overall next week. I still believe Duke was better last season, although this team, led by freshman star Cameron Boozer, is tougher defensively and could go a step or two further in the Final Four. Still, the Devils are down two key players with injuries this week and don’t need to win the tournament in Charlotte, N.C. Duke is a heavy odds-on favorite (-350) and the price is too high to lay. Second-seeded Virginia has a softer half of the bracket and a relatively clear path to the title game. The Cavaliers are 11-1 in their past 12 games, including a 77-51 loss at Duke on Feb. 28, and offer the best odds value. North Carolina is not a serious threat without its best player, Caleb Wilson, who’s out for the season. Clemson is an interesting longshot at 52-1.

Best Bet: Virginia +750

Big Ten

The top half of the bracket is brutally tough with Michigan, Illinois and two of the conference’s hottest teams in Wisconsin (18-1) and Ohio State (60-1). The bottom of the bracket with Michigan State and Nebraska seems easier to predict, especially with the Cornhuskers fading. The most intriguing team is Purdue, the preseason No. 1 team in the nation which slipped to the No. 7 seed in this tournament. The Boilermakers (+750) get a favorable draw and they have played better away from home. This is a shot at redemption for a Purdue team with four senior starters, led by point guard Braden Smith, but it’s also a team that inspires little faith because of serious defensive deficiencies. It’s March, Tom Izzo wants another shot at Michigan, and the Spartans are likely to get past Purdue and reach the championship game in Chicago.

Best Bet: Michigan State +625

Big West

With a chance to claim a share of the regular-season title Saturday night, Hawaii suffered an inexplicable 84-75 loss to Long Beach State as a 14-point favorite. The Warriors (+220) boast two of the league’s top players — 7-footer Isaac “Big Fish” Johnson and guard Dre Bullock — and could rebound this week in Henderson, Nevada. UC Santa Barbara (+800) has had a disappointing season, but the Gauchos possess the talent to make a run in a tournament with a history of long-shot winners. Hawaii and UCSB are in the same half of the bracket, so the safest play is top-seeded UC Irvine and reliable coach Russell Turner.

Best Bet: UC Irvine +165

Mid-American Conference

Believe it or not, a 31-0 Miami team is not the favorite to win this tournament. The RedHawks (+190) are the second choice behind Akron, which finished 17-1 in league play with the loss coming 76-73 at Miami in early January. Miami has been playing with fire, winning each of its past three games by exactly two points. Akron is No. 61 in the Pomeroy ratings, 30 spots higher than the RedHawks. Senior guard Tavari Johnson and the Zips are rolling, blowing out their past six opponents, and it would be a surprise if they don’t cut down the nets this week.

Best Bet: Akron -115

Mountain West

Utah State won the regular season, but the Aggies are fragile favorites (+220) after getting swept by eighth-seeded UNLV. Those teams could meet for a third time in the quarterfinal round. Things could get wild in the wide-open Mountain West, which should be a one-bid league if Utah State doesn’t win it this week. The Rebels are hot and have the conference’s top guard in Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, who has averaged 28 points in the past 11 games. UNLV, which whipped Utah State 92-65 last week in Las Vegas, is getting 25-1 odds at Circa and 45-1 at DraftKings. The bottom half of the bracket is filled with title threats in San Diego State, New Mexico (+650), Boise State (+700) and Colorado State (25-1). This is a tough one to predict, but the Aztecs are proven winners in tournament settings and you want your money on coach Brian Dutcher.

Best Bet: San Diego State +340

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