Thursday is one of the biggest days of the season for college basketball, not in terms of game volume, but rather in the stakes involved with the conference tournaments. All five of the power conferences are deep into their brackets, as well as nine other mid-major leagues. Earlier in the week, I published articles covering the top conference tournament betting trends for both. In order to save our readers some time and effort, I have decided to qualify all of the trends in those two articles for the games on Thursday, 3/12. I will continue to do this for the next few days as well. Hope it helps.
Let’s get started by reviewing the three basic conference tournament systems I offered up for this season:
1) Heading into the 2026 action, conference tournament favorites off a bye were 394-121 SU and 274-233 ATS (54%) over the last six seasons against teams that played earlier in that tournament.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: Charlotte, North Texas, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Miami (FL), George Mason, Davidson, St Johns, Connecticut, Villanova, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, UCLA (Note Big Trend bye data below), Arizona, Texas Tech, Houston, Kansas, CS-Northridge, CS-Fullerton, Utah State, Grand Canyon, San Diego State, New Mexico, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, Utah Tech
2) Conference tournament favorites coming off a tourney win scoring 90 points or more are on an incredible 73-16 SU and 64-24-1 ATS (72.7%) run dating back to 2017!
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: Iowa State
3) Conference tournament underdogs coming off a tourney win allowing 55 points or fewer are on a brutal 29-92 SU and 43-77 ATS (35.8%) skid dating back to 2020!
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: BYU, Nevada
Here are the trends in play for each conference:
Power Five Conferences
ACC
· Big favorites of 5.5-points or more have been nearly automatic in the ACC tournament of late, 61-8 SU and 40-28-1 ATS (58.8%) since 2015.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: Virginia, Duke
· ACC teams off a bye and playing as favorites of 4-points or more against teams that have already played in the tournament are 43-4 SU & 28-18-1 ATS (60.9%) since 2015.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: Virginia, Duke
· Lower-totaled ACC tournament contests, or those 140 or less, have shown a penchant for going Over, 35-20 (63.6%) since 2016.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: WATCH Clemson-UNC total (140.5 at press time)
BIG 12
· Teams off an earlier round bye in the Big 12 tournament have gone 23-4 SU and 17-10 ATS (63%) since 2016.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: Texas Tech, Arizona, Houston, Kansas
· Mid-level favorites of -4 to -9.5 in the Big 12 bracket have gone 33-13 SU but just 20-26 ATS (43.5%) since 2015.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: AGAINST Iowa State, Houston, Kansas
· Totals of 147 or higher have gone 15-9 (62.5%) Under over the last 12 years in the Big 12 tournament, but they were 4-0 Over in 2025.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: UNDER the total is UCF-Arizona
· Teams winning by single-digits in a Big 12 tourney game have gone just 12-32 SU and 16-28 ATS (36.4%) in the follow-up tourney contest since 2016.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: AGAINST UCF, TCU
BIG EAST
· Only three of the last 25 Big East quarterfinal teams that enjoyed a round 1 bye have lost to a team that played, going 16-9 ATS (64%).
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: St John’s, Connecticut, Villanova
· Big East tourney favorites in the -5 to -9.5 range have been vulnerable, 25-13 SU but 13-25 ATS (34.2%) over the last 12 seasons, although they did go 2-0 SU and ATS last year.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: AGAINST Villanova
· Big East quarterfinal double-digit favorites are on a 13-3 ATS (81.3%) run since 2006. Overall, for the tournament, double-digit favorites are on a 13-5 ATS (72.2%) surge.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: St John’s, Connecticut
· Teams that win a Big East tourney game comfortably (by 8 points or more), haven’t followed up that performance with another good one, going 17-25 SU and 16-26 ATS (38.1%) in the next round.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: AGAINST Providence
BIG TEN
· Heavy favorites of -6.5 points or more are on a 23-1 SU and 14-10 ATS (58.3%) run in the Big Ten tournament.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: Wisconsin, Purdue, UCLA
· Teams that are off a bye in the Big Ten tournament are 25-14 SU but 13-28-2 ATS (31.7%) versus teams that already played since 2018. This makes it one of the few leagues where having a bye hasn’t proven all that beneficial.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: AGAINST Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, UCLA
SEC
· Of the last 31 SEC tourney games expected to be highly competitive (favorites of -3 or less), 19 have gone Over the total (61.3%).
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: OVER the total in Oklahoma-Texas A&M
· The bye has proven important in the SEC tournament of late, as rested teams are on a 38-14 SU and 30-22 ATS (57.7%) run versus teams that have already played.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M
Mid-Major Conferences
ATLANTIC 10
· The Atlantic 10 is one of just a few conferences that hosts a “second round” in its tournament. Favorites have been nearly automatic in this round since 2014, going 38-5 SU. Those laying 5.5-points or less are on an incredible 20-2 SU and 18-4 ATS (81.8%) surge.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: Favorites (lines) are George Washington (-5.5), George Mason (-3.5), Duquesne (-1.5), Davidson (-7.5)
· A-10 totals of 144 or higher have been predictably high scoring, going 22-10 Over the total (68.8%) since 2014, including 4-0 in 2025.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: Watch total in St Bonaventure-George Mason contest (143.5 at press time)
BIG WEST
· Since the recent expansion of the Big West tournament back in 2021, teams off byes in earlier rounds have gone 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS (57.1%).
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: CS-Northridge, CS-Fullerton
· There has been a significant benchmark line point in recent years of the Big West tourney, and that has been 7.5-points. Favorites of 7.5 points or more are 19-2 SU and 12-8-1 ATS (60%) since 2014, while underdogs of 7 points or less have gone 37-25-3 ATS (59.7%) in that same span.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: UNDERDOGS (lines) are CS-Northridge (+2.5), CS-Fullerton (+1.5)
CONFERENCE USA
· In Conference USA’s ever-changing field, favorites have been a reliable wager over the last 10 years, going 73-28 SU and 61-39-1 ATS (61%) during that stretch. Those laying 7 points or more are on a 24-3 SU & 20-7 ATS (74.1%) run.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: FAVORITES (lines) are Middle Tennessee State (-1.5), Western Kentucky (-1.5)
· Conference USA tournament games have gone Under the total at a 41-27 (60.3%) rate since 2018. Those with totals of more than 147 are on a 19-7 Under (73.1%) surge.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: Games (totals) are MTSU-LT (131.5) & KSU-WKU (157.5)
MID-AMERICAN
· Favorites of 4.5 points or more in the MAC tourney boast a record of 39-6 SU since 2017, to go along with a respectable ATS record of 26-18-1 (59.1%). Favorites of 4 points or fewer are on a 9-16 SU and 6-19 ATS skid (24%).
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: FAVORITES (lines) are Miami (OH) (-7.5), Toledo (-1.5), Akron (-14.5), Kent State (-3.5)
MID-EASTERN ATHELTIC
· Extreme totals have shown definitive Under results in the MEAC tournament since 2015, with totals of more than 148 showing 13-3 Under (81.3%), and those less than 132 going 10-3 Under (76.9%).
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: UNDER the total in UMES-NC Central (131.5)
MOUNTAIN WEST
· Since 2011, Mountain West Conference tourney favorites of 5.5 points or less are on a 46-25 ATS (64.8%) surge. Only five of the last 34 such games have resulted in outright upsets.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: Grand Canyon, San Diego State
· MWC teams facing an opponent that had an earlier round bye are just 3-21 SU and 9-15 ATS (37.5%) as underdogs of fewer than 12 points since 2014. In all other line scenarios, including when favored, they are 11-0 ATS (100%), including San Jose State’s ATS win as a 15.5-point underdog versus New Mexico in 2025.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: AGAINST UNLV, Nevada, Colorado State, ON San Jose State
· Lofty totals of more than 150 in the MWC tourney are on a 9-2 Under (81.8%) surge.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: UNDER the total in UNLV-Utah State, San Jose State-New Mexico
SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC
· The SWAC tournament has proven to be quite chalky over the last eight years, with favorites of 3 points or more on a 37-9 SU and 30-14-2 ATS (68.2%) run.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: Southern U
· The last four SWAC tournaments have been generally lower-scoring brackets, with 19 of 30 games going Under (63.3%). Of those 30 games, those with totals of 134+ are on a 12-4 Under (75%) surge.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: UNDER the total in Alabama A&M-Texas Southern, UAPB-Southern
WESTERN ATHLETIC
· WAC teams coming off an earlier round bye and have been favored have gone 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%).
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: Utah Tech·
– Only three WAC tournament underdogs of 3 points or more have won outright in the last 12 years, going 3-57 SU and 22-38 ATS (36.7%), including 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS a year ago.
Qualifying plays for Thursday 3/12: AGAINST Southern Utah
The post College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Trends for Thursday, March 12 appeared first on VSiN.
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