We are just one day away from Selection Sunday, but there are still plenty of conference titles to be decided between now and tomorrow’s announcements. In the Power 5 conferences, the Big East, Big 12, and ACC tourneys have reached their title games. There are several others in the mid-majors scheduled for Saturday, and we add the Ivy League semifinals to the mix. Let’s take a look at all of the conference tournament trends in play for today, right from the three articles I published over the last couple of weeks. Look for the final piece in this series on Sunday morning.
Let’s get started by reviewing the three basic conference tournament systems I offered up for this season:
1) Heading into the 2026 action, conference tournament favorites off a bye were 394-121 SU and 274-233 ATS (54%) over the last six seasons against teams that played earlier in that tournament.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: South Florida, Wichita State
2) Conference tournament favorites coming off a tourney win scoring 90 points or more are on an incredible 73-16 SU and 64-24-1 ATS (72.7%) run dating back to 2017!
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: Tulsa, UC-Irvine
3) Conference tournament underdogs coming off a tourney win allowing 55 points or fewer are on a brutal 29-92 SU and 43-77 ATS (35.8%) skid dating back to 2020!
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: AGAINST Houston, PrairieView, NC Central
Here are the trends in play for each conference. Note that all trend records were as of heading into the 2026 games and don’t include any earlier results from this week:
Power Five Conferences
ACC
· Big favorites of 5.5 points or more have been nearly automatic in the ACC tournament of late, 61-8 SU and 40-28-1 ATS (58.8%) since 2015.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: Duke
· Lower-totaled ACC tournament contests, or those 140 or less, have shown a penchant for going Over, 35-20 (63.6%) since 2016.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: OVER the total in Virginia-Duke
BIG 12
· The last three Big 12 title games have gone Under the total, with the losing teams scoring a paltry 53.7 PPG.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: Under the total in Houston-Arizona
· Teams winning by single-digits in a Big 12 tourney game have gone just 12-32 SU and 16-28 ATS (36.4%) in the follow-up tourney contest since ’16.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: AGAINST Arizona
BIG EAST
· Twelve of the last 15 Big East championship games have gone Under the total (80%).
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: Under the total in UConn-St. John’s
· Teams that win a Big East tourney game comfortably (by 8 points or more) haven’t followed up that performance with another good one, going 17-25 SU and 16-26 ATS (38.1%) in the next round.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: BOTH UConn and St. John’s won their Friday games by double-digits
BIG TEN
· Heavy favorites of -6.5 points or more are on a 23-1 SU and 14-10 ATS (58.3%) run in the Big Ten tournament.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: Michigan, Purdue
· The Big Ten tournament semifinals are 12-4 Over the total (75%) since 2017, including Overs in the last eight.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: OVER the total in Wisconsin-Michigan, Purdue-UCLA
SEC
· Lines of 7 points or more should be noted for two reasons in the SEC tourney. First off, favorites in these games are on a 37-8 SU and 27-16-2 ATS (62.8%) run since 2014, and second, these games have gone Under the total at a 30-14-1 (68.2%) rate.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: Florida, Arkansas and UNDER the total in Vanderbilt-Florida & Ole Miss-Arkansas
Mid-Major Conferences
AMERICA EAST
· Small favorites of -4.5 points or less are 16-5 SU and 15-6 ATS (71.4%) in the America East tournament since 2015.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: UMBC
· Nine of the last 11 (81.8%) America East championship games went Under the total
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: UNDER the total in Vermont-UMBC
AMERICAN ATHLETIC
· It’s not a frequent occurrence, as the AAC has been a relatively lower-scoring league, but totals of 150 or more in the tourney have gone 6-2 Under (72.7%) since 2016.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: UNDER the total in Charlotte-South Florida
ATLANTIC 10
· Favorites have also thrived in the semifinals of the A-10 tourney, 14-6 SU and 12-8 ATS (60%) in the last 10 brackets. However, they were 0-2 ATS last year.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: Saint Louis, VCU
· A-10 totals of 144 or higher have been predictably high scoring, going 22-10 Over the total (68.8%) since 2014, including 4-0 in 2025.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: OVER the total in Dayton-Saint Louis
BIG WEST
· There has been a significant benchmark line point in recent years of the Big West tourney, and that has been 7.5 points. Favorites of 7.5 points or more are 19-2 SU and 12-8-1 ATS (60%) since 2014, while underdogs of 7 points or less have gone 37-25-3 ATS (59.7%) in that same span.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: Hawaii (+2.5)
· Totals of 140 or less in the Big West tourney are 17-7 Under (70.8%) since 2014.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: UNDER the total in Hawaii-UC Irvine
CONFERENCE USA
· In Conference USA’s ever-changing field, favorites have been a reliable wager over the last 10 years, going 73-28 SU and 61-39-1 ATS (61%) during that stretch. Those laying 7 points or more are on a 24-3 SU and 20-7 ATS (74.1%) run.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: Kennesaw State
· Conference USA tournament games have gone Under the total at a 41-27 (60.3%) rate since 2018. Those with totals of more than 147 are on a 19-7 Under (73.1%) surge.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: UNDER the total in KSU-LTU (140.5)
IVY LEAGUE
· The previous seven Ivy League tourneys have shown a distinct pattern regarding rounds and totals. Championship games are 5-2 Over the total (71.4%), while semifinal games are 9-5 Under the total (64.3%).
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: UNDER the total in Yale-Cornell & Penn-Harvard
· Totals of 143 or more are on an 8-3 Under the total (72.7%) surge in the brief Ivy League bracket.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: UNDER the total in Yale-Cornell
MID-AMERICAN
· Favorites of 4.5 points or more in the MAC tourney boast a record of 39-6 SU since 2017, to go along with a respectable ATS record of 26-18-1 (59.1%). Favorites of 4 points or fewer are on a 9-16 SU and 6-19 ATS skid (24%).
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: Akron (-7.5)
MID-EASTERN ATHELTIC
· Nine of the last 11 (81.8%) MEAC Championship games went Under the total
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: UNDER the total in NC Central-Howard (144.5)
MOUNTAIN WEST
· Since 2011, Mountain West Conference tourney favorites of 5.5-points or less are on a 46-25 ATS (64.8%) surge. Only five of the last 34 such games have resulted in outright upsets.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: Utah State (-1.5)
· The last seven MWC title games went Under the total (100%).
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: UNDER the total in SDSU-USU (147.5)
SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC
· The SWAC tournament has proven to be quite chalky over the last eight years, with favorites of 3-points or more on a 37-9 SU and 30-14-2 ATS (68.2%) run.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: Southern U
· Favorites in the SWAC title game are on a 2-11 ATS (15.4%) skid and have lost five of the last six outright.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: AGAINST Southern U
· The last four SWAC tournaments have been generally lower-scoring brackets, with 19 of 30 games going Under (63.3%). Of those 30 games, those with totals of 134+ are on a 12-4 Under (75%) surge.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: UNDER the total in PVSU-Southern (150.5)
WESTERN ATHLETIC·
WAC championship favorites are on a 12-2 SU and ATS (85.7%) surge, with the only two losses coming in 2021 & 2023 with 1-point dogs winning.
Qualifying plays for Saturday 3/14: Utah Valley State (-1.5)
The post College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Trends for Saturday, March 14 appeared first on VSiN.
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