You may have heard that we’re doing a $1 Million High Stakes Survivor Contest hosted by Splash Sports for the NCAA Tournament. Maybe you hadn’t heard that, but you have now. We have an article from our pals at TeamRankings and PoolGenius regarding March Madness Survivor strategy. Taking those concepts into account, let’s consider a possible Survivor blueprint for this year’s tournament.

What is a March Madness Survivor Pool?

This is something that I’ve put together each of the last two years for Circa Survivor and something worth thinking about. Even if you don’t follow this exact path and plan, whether you disagree with it or because the games don’t work out in the right way, this exercise is meant to show the philosophy and mentality you may want to consider.

Remember, it’s a Survivor contest, so you can only pick each team once and they simply have to win outright. One of the big differences with NFL Survivor is that you have 32 teams (minus byes) to pick from each week. In this type of format, you’re going to get down to two teams in the National Championship Game and will have to hope that you have one or both of them still available so that you have a chance to win.

That means that you probably want to hold on to all of the No. 1 seeds until you get to a point where you really have to use them, which may very well be the Final Four like it was last year when the last teams standing were the top teams in each region.

First Round

In theory, this should be the easiest pick. Upsets happen, but there are teams in big favorites roles that you probably won’t have to think about using in the Elite Eight and beyond. Certainly there is a degree of risk because a lot of the teams that fit that selection criteria are those ones on the 3, 4, 5, and 6 lines and we know that’s where the first-round upsets can happen with low-major and mid-major conference champs.

It may also be beneficial to take a decent-sized favorite that may not be favored again or be in a lot of coin flip situations moving forward. A team like Wisconsin is on my mind here because they’re about a double-digit favorite against High Point, but you’re really not going to be excited about taking them against Arkansas (barring a Hawaii upset, of course), Arizona, or anybody else moving forward. Sure, they could be a Final Four-caliber team and that would limit your options down the line, but the risk may be worth it now because they’re not an ideal option at any other point.

The other thing to keep in mind is that you need to take a first-round team on BOTH days, so one Thursday and one Friday. The schedule is spread out enough that there should be a good number of options, with eight double-digit favorites on Thursday and eight on Friday. But, that’s also true of the second round and Sweet 16, while the Elite Eight, where the Splash Sports contest allows you to take two teams on the same day if you want, is different. Not all Survivor formats will allow that.

Here are my thoughts for the first round:

Thursday: Wisconsin (-10) vs. High Point

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I wrote about this already, but there are no other spots I’d want to take Wisconsin and they could be eliminated at any time going forward. Hell, they may lose this game, but because Arkansas, Arizona, and Purdue/Gonzaga are likely on the horizon, I can’t see them getting through that gauntlet, nor would I want to take them in any of those games. Gonzaga may not have a higher ceiling than Wisconsin, but Arkansas, Arizona, and Purdue all do in my mind.

Considerations: Michigan State (-16.5) vs. North Dakota State, Arkansas (-15.5) vs. Hawaii

Friday: Kansas (-14.5) vs. Cal Baptist

As many have established already, the East Region is brutal. With a win, Kansas likely draws St. John’s, followed by Duke, and then probably UConn if they’re still alive. Again, much like the Wisconsin example, it is hard to see another spot to take the Jayhawks. Also, Cal Baptist had a 32.1% 3P Rate on the season. They are very reliant on getting inside, where they don’t finish well anyway, and that’ll be much harder against Kansas than it is against the other six teams in the WAC.

Considerations: Alabama (-11.5) vs. Hofstra (Holloway dismissal makes it much harder going forward to use them), UCLA -5.5 vs. UCF

Second Round

Alright! We’ve made it to Saturday and Sunday! Now, it gets tougher. Of course, for the purposes of this exercise, I have no choice but to assume that the chalk has moved on. There will probably be upsets, there always are, but the goal is to try and pick the best teams available that are not No. 1 or No. 2 seeds because we need to save them for the future.

As you’re planning your path, remember that Thursday winners play on Saturday and Friday winners on Sunday. It’s probably an obvious thing, but as you’re thinking about so many other moving parts, it can be easy to overlook the obvious things.

Saturday: Vanderbilt over Nebraska

If we assume that Vanderbilt’s remaining schedule is Florida, Houston/Illinois, and then Duke, I’m willing to take my chances here against Nebraska. As good as the Commodores are and as much upside as they possess, they’d be an underdog to all four of those teams. They’ll be favored, albeit slightly, over Nebraska. It is a matchup that Vandy should win on the glass and inside the arc, plus they have a good chance at outshooting the Cornhuskers from deep. Given that Nebraska’s 3P Rate is about 51% and their 3P Rate against is about 49%, Vandy, who actually shot better from 3 for the season than Nebraska while playing in a slightly tougher conference, gets the nod for me.

Sunday: Iowa State over Kentucky

Similarly, in thinking ahead here, while Iowa State grades very well for both Bart Torvik and KenPom and would be favored in a Sweet 16 matchup with Virginia, I like the Cyclones’ chances a lot more against Kentucky than anybody else coming down the line. Iowa State should win the turnover battle and Kentucky would have a hard time keeping up with such a potent offensive team if they were getting extra possessions. Assuming Iowa State’s remaining slate is Virginia and then Michigan, this feels like the optimal spot to use them.

Sweet 16

It’s getting even tougher now! We also don’t know the Sweet 16 schedule, so I’ll just have to hope that the two teams mentioned here play on different days. If not, we have that strategy article you can refer to and I think I’ve shed a good amount of light on the process to this point.

Once again, upsets do happen and this is very subject to change, in the event that a double-digit seed or two or three wind up in the Sweet 16 and these decisions are a little bit easier. For now, I’ll just assume that the chalk continues to move on for the purposes of this exercise.

Houston over Illinois; Purdue over Gonzaga

Houston: The prospects of Houston in a rematch with Florida in the Elite Eight from the South Region are pretty scary. So, I’ll deploy the Cougars now in hopes that they can beat Illinois. From a possession standpoint, Illinois is coming into the tournament 365th in the nation out of 365 teams in TO%. Meanwhile, Houston is 13th in TO% and one of just eight teams with a lower TO% on offense.

Houston’s shot selection is worrisome to me because they take a lot of mid-range jumpers. That was a bit of a blind spot for the Illinois defense, though. And the fact that the Illini allowed opponents to get to the rim on just 28.3% of their shots means Houston was going to have to live and die with jumpers anyway, something that they are accustomed to.

Purdue: It is worth wondering if Braden Huff is back for Gonzaga by this point or not. If so, this becomes a much more difficult proposition to get behind. Nevertheless, the Boilermakers will be favored here, which would not be the case against Arizona in the Elite Eight. They did split with Michigan, winning in the Big Ten Tournament, but they’d still be an underdog in that spot and I’m not keen on trusting Matt Painter deep into the NCAA Tournament.

Purdue should match up well with Gonzaga if those teams do square off. Gonzaga was right around the national average in 3P% and only took one 31% of the time. It’s tough to get inside on Purdue, who forced opponents into a 3-pointer on 45% of their shots. Meanwhile, Purdue’s a top-20 offense bombing away from deep and Gonzaga let a lot of opponents shoot from the perimeter.

Elite Eight

Quick recap here, as the teams used thus far are Wisconsin, Kansas, Vanderbilt, Iowa State, Houston, and Purdue to get us to the Elite Eight. Again, not sure what days these games are being played, but a reminder that in the Splash Sports VSiN Survivor Madness contest, you can take two teams in the same day for the E8 round if you want to.

Given that group above, all four No. 1 seeds are still available and one No. 2 seed (UConn). To me, there is a very high likelihood of at least four, if not all five, of those teams in the Elite Eight. Also, in the event that a team like Arkansas or St. John’s is in the midst of making a run, they’re still available. Virginia is a team that I personally like a lot (hence the Iowa State second-round pick) and they are a team I believe could make a push.

I’ll be honest with you. By this point, you’re probably going to be flipping a lot of coins. The gaps between teams continue to dwindle and you could argue that it’s more about the availability and less about the handicap. Many of the nation’s elite have modest weaknesses at best and so you’re really just hoping for the best with the team that you pick. But, in a perfect world, most of the Elite Eight teams are available to you. Then you can narrow your focus into the matchup.

Florida over Houston; Arizona over Purdue

Florida: I’ve mentioned this stat a lot, but the last team to win the NCAA Tournament with a negative 3P% differential was the 1988 Kansas Jayhawks. Florida enters the tourney shooting just 30.8% from 3, while opponents are shooting 32.4% from 3. In other words, even if Florida were to go to the Final Four, I would not be thrilled about taking them against Duke. Similarly, I would not be thrilled with taking them against Michigan in the Championship Game if it got that far. So, they come off the board now against Houston, a team that can get bogged down on the offensive end of the floor.

It’s probably the lesser of evils for Florida in that they likely won’t need to score as many points to win and probably won’t need to score in 3s to win. They can get the ball inside and have a massive edge on the glass. It does worry me that they also enter the NCAA Tournament with a negative TO% differential. UConn won the title in 2023 with a negative TO% differential in the regular season, but it’s a rarity and they’re the only team since at least 2008.

So, I’ll use Florida now against a team I feel is more fringe-elite than the other No. 1 seeds Florida may very well see.

Arizona: It might be a big assumption that Arizona is even here, given that Tommy Lloyd has had some good teams and hasn’t made it past the Sweet 16. This is his best all-around team, though, and a team that should match up very well with Purdue if that matchup comes to fruition. That doesn’t mean I want to tangle with Michigan in the Final Four, but Purdue enters the tournament ranked 240th in 2P% defense.

Given that Arizona’s 3P Rate is the fourth-lowest in the nation at 26.8%, they need to be able to score inside to do that. Duke and Michigan are both top-20 teams in 2P% defense, so I’d like the Wildcats’ chances more in this matchup than either one of those.

Final Four

Woo! It’s time to head to Indianapolis for the Final Four! Again, I’m basing my assumptions on chalk holding up. We had all four No. 1 seeds last season and that was just the second time in recent history. We may not have it happen for the second year in a row, but this exercise is about showing the blueprint to navigate through the tournament by leaving the top teams available. As a result, Duke and Michigan remain as No. 1s, while UConn is a safety net for Duke and, as I said, I really like Virginia, so they’re a safety net for Michigan.

Because those are the last two teams I want to pick, now I’m at the point where I can. You only have to pick one of the Final Four games that happen on the same day. My pick would be Michigan over Arizona.

Michigan: Precisely what I said above now applies here. I’ll take Arizona over the team that they can score inside the arc against and fade them against the team that has a far better defense on the interior. Michigan enters the NCAA Tournament ranked fourth in 2P% defense. They take a 3-pointer about 15% more often than Arizona. Given that both teams excel defensively on the interior, Michigan’s higher 3-point shot volume may very well make the difference in the game.

National Championship

And then there were two. And for my forecasting purposes, it’s Duke vs. Michigan and I’ve got Duke at my disposal.

Duke: The Blue Devils need to get healthy between then and now, given the injuries to Patrick Ngongba and Caleb Foster that kept them out of the ACC Tournament. Of course, Duke won that anyway while shorthanded, so it may not matter. But, we’ve seen this game once and Duke won 68-63, playing more of the style of game that they wanted to play. They dominated on the glass and shot the ball more efficiently. 

The Wolverines aren’t what they were easier in the season, so maybe it’s presumptuous to assume that they’re still alive in the Final Four or the National Championship, but with Duke as the team I’d pick to win it all, I’m saving them for the end.

Teams Used: Wisconsin, Kansas // Vanderbilt, Iowa State // Houston, Purdue // Florida, Arizona // Michigan // Duke

Summary

Like I said all along, the assumption was that the favorites and the higher seeds kept winning. It’s not always going to be that way and there may be some easier decisions than expected in the Sweet 16 or even Elite Eight. But, the goal is to win, not just survive, and that means saving the teams that you think are the best and as many high seeds as possible because none of it matters if you don’t have a team to use in the Final Four or in the National Championship Game.

So, you have to plan your strategy around the two teams left standing when 62 other teams have been eliminated. If you can have them both, that’s great. But, as long as you have one of them to give yourself a chance, that’s the right mindset to take into this contest.

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