NCAA Tournament First Four Games Analytics Report

by Steve Makinen @stevemakinen

The VSiN March Mania Betting Guide includes a plethora of trends, strength ratings and much more for this year’s tournament. I highly suggest you check it out. To be honest, it is a lot to digest, even for those of us who put it together. As such, I need to refresh my mind before each round of games so I don’t forget or overlook any key data I have uncovered. With that in mind, over the next three weeks, I will compile a series of seven round-by-round articles that will encompass, update and qualify all information in the guide for the upcoming games. These mini “Analytics Reports” are similar to the daily reports you see for the NBA on VSiN.com. 

So, let’s get started, looking at the First Four games and the trends and systems to help you handicap the contests. Check back on VSiN.com on Wednesday afternoon for the first-round materials. 

From the “Navigating the Tournament Round by Round” article in the guide, here are the trends and qualifying games for the First Four:

— Over the last 13 NCAA tournaments, underdogs own a 28-23 ATS (54.9%) edge in the First Four round.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: Underdogs in the First Four matchups are Howard, NC State, Prairie View, Miami Ohio

— Since 2001, there have been only eight First Four games with lines of five points or higher. Favorites are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS (66.7%) in those games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: SMU (-6.5)

— More on point spread benchmarks, in that same span since ’01, favorites of fewer than five points are 31-24 SU but just 23-31-1 ATS (42.6%)
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: AGAINST UMBC, Texas, Lehigh

— Outright winners have gone 42-4 ATS (91.3%) in the First Four round since 2013, although most recently Alabama State (-3.5) was able to survive St. Francis 70-68 in 2025.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: ALL outright winners ATS

— Higher totaled First Four games, or those higher than 139, have also trended 15-9 Under (60%). However, consider that all First Four games went Over last year, the first time ever, including two with totals above 139.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: Under the total in Howard-UMBC (140,5), NC State-Texas (157.5), Lehigh-Prairie View (142.5), SMU-Miami Ohio (164.5)

— Formerly, all First Four games used to match No. 16 seeds; recently, First Four games featuring seeds 12 or better have trended 17-9 Under (65.4%)
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: Under the total in NC State-Texas (157.5), SMU-Miami Ohio (164.5)

— There has also been a noticeable differentiation in performance levels of favorites/underdogs in the seeded matchups of the First Four round lately. In the games pitting No. 16 seeds, underdogs are on a 16-9 ATS (64%) run. In the games featuring Nos. 10-12 seeds, favorites hold a recent 12-6 ATS (66.7%) edge.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: Underdogs in the No. 16 seed games are Howard and Prairie View. Favorites in the No. 11 seed games are Texas and SMU

From the “Handicapping the tournament by conferences” article, here are the conference trends that will be applicable for the First Four games on Tuesday and Wednesday night:

ACC

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Teams in the First Four matchupNC STATE (West #11) vs. TEXAS-SEC
SMU (Midwest #11) vs. MIAMI OHIO-MAC

Trends

— Over the last four NCAA tournaments, the ACC boasts a record of 37-20 SU and ATS (64.9%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: NC State, SMU

— In the role of pick-’em or small underdog (up to 4.5 points), ACC teams are on a 19-5 ATS (79.2%) surge.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: NC State

— ACC teams playing as double-digit seeds are 20-12-1 ATS (62.5%) since 2012.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: NC State, SMU

— Nineteen of the last 26 NCAA tournament matchups between the ACC and SEC have gone Under the total (73.1%). Both went Under last year by over 20 points.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: Under the total NC State-Texas

— In that same ACC-SEC conference NCAA matchup, underdogs are on a 14-4-1 ATS (77.8%) surge since ’17.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: NC State

America East

Teams in the First Four matchupUMBC (Midwest #16) vs. HOWARD-Mid-Eastern

Trends

— Bryant’s loss to Michigan State in 2025 dropped the America East record in the NCAA’s to 11-6 ATS (64.7%) since 2011.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: UMBC

— America East teams are 17-8-1 Under (68%) the total in the NCAAs since ’03.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: UNDER the total in UMBC-Howard

Mid-American

Teams in the First Four matchupMIAMI OHIO (Midwest #11) vs. SMU-ACC

Trends

— Mid-American Conference teams are 14-8 ATS (63.6%) in their last 22 NCAA tournament games as a No. 13 seed or worse, but 9-11 ATS (45%) in other seeds during that stretch.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: Against Miami Ohio

— Mid-American Conference teams are on a run of 11-5 ATS (68.8%) in their last 16 tries as dogs of 6.5 points or more in the NCAA tournament.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: Miami Ohio

— MAC teams have gone Under the total in their last seven NCAA tournament games (100%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: Under the total in Miami Ohio-SMU

Mid-Eastern

Teams in the First Four matchupHOWARD (Midwest #16) vs. UMBC-America East

Trends

— MEAC teams are on a 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS (28.6%) slide in the NCAAs, including 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS (25%) in first-round games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: Against Howard

— NCAA tournament games featuring MEAC teams have trended heavily Under on totals, 18-11 (62.1%) in the last 29. However, the last three have gone Over.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: Under the total in Howard-UMBC

Patriot

Teams in the First Four matchupLEHIGH (South #16) vs. PRAIRIE VIEW A&M-SWAC

Trends

— Patriot League teams are 10-9 ATS (52.6%) in the First Round of the NCAA tournament since ’04 but are 1-5 ATS (16.7%) in all other games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: Against Lehigh

— Patriot League teams are 12-8 (60%) ATS vs. power conference foes in the NCAAs since 2000, but 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS (22.2%) against fellow mid-major teams.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: Against Lehigh

SEC

Teams in the First Four matchupTEXAS (West #11) vs. NC STATE-ACC

Trends

— SEC teams are on a 22-11 ATS (66.7%) run vs. ACC teams since ’03.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: Texas

— As pick-’ems or small favorites of five points or less, SEC teams are an ugly 48-53 SU and 40-57-4 ATS (41.2%) in the NCAAs since 1999.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: Against Texas

— Seeded in the bottom half of the field (#9-#14), SEC teams have struggled to a 12-30 SU and 17-23-2 ATS (42.5%) record since 2007.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: Against Texas

SWAC

Teams in the First Four matchupPRAIRIE VIEW A&M (South #16) vs. LEHIGH-Patriot

Trends

— SWAC teams are on a 7-5 ATS (58.3%) run in NCAA tournament games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 First Four: Prairie View

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