March Madness Picks – Tuley’s College Basketball Takes for Sunday, March 22:

Regular readers know it wasn’t a good Friday in the Tuley’s Takes home office as favorites swept 16-0 SU to close out the NCAA Tournament’s first round and 12-4 ATS.

Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to land on any of the few dogs that covered and went 0-4 ATS and was only able to stop the bleeding and cut my losses with the Clemson-Iowa Under, dropping to 4-6 overall in the first round before heading into my “takes” on Saturday’s second-round games.

All the talk on Friday was about how NIL and the transfer portal have made this another ultra-chalky tourney like last year, though favorites were only 17-14-1 ATS (54.8%) overall in the first round, so it wasn’t as lopsided as some were making it.

We’ll see how it goes on Saturday (Michigan did cover the early game vs. Saint Louis), but we’re hoping that the dogs start barking again, including on Sunday. Even though all 16 teams advanced as chalk on Friday, someone’s gotta be the dog, right? Our goal is to find the right live ones.
Here’s my “takes” for Sunday.

Iowa (Under 145.5) vs. Florida

Sunday, 7:10 p.m. ET

As I’m writing this Saturday afternoon, I know underdog bettors are in a panic over how the last 30 hours have gone, but I’ve been around long enough to say we’ve seen this before, and trends like this always eventually reverse. For one thing, with the public being flush with cash from winning on favorites, they’re going to keep betting chalk, and oddsmakers will be forced to continue inflating the lines to protect themselves. It’s just a question of when it reverses, so we’re not panicking and just being more selective (as we always say, a key component of “dog or pass” is we don’t bet EVERY dog).

As for my first play on Sunday, I’m actually going to go with the Under in the Iowa-Florida game, just like we did with the Hawkeyes’ first-round game vs. Clemson. They should slow the game down as they are No. 361 in Adjusted Tempo (possession per 40 minutes) at kenpom.com. I’m tempted to take Iowa +10.5, but with the way things are going so far, the line still seems short. Florida ran all over Lehigh 114-55 for a whopping 59-point win, and we’re not so sure it won’t blow out Iowa as well, but while we’re counting on the Hawkeyes to help us with the Under with its No. 31 ranking in defensive efficiency, the Gators are also No. 6, so we feel the total is still set too high.

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Utah State +12 vs. Arizona

Sunday, 7:50 p.m. ET

With the way the chalk is performing, it’s a little scary to fade No, 1 seed Arizona, but we have to trust the process as this line certainly looks inflated as it opened Arizona -11 at William Hill and -11.5 at other Vegas books and has been steamed to -12 at Circa with 81% of bets and 70% of the money on Arizona, according to the VSiN Betting Splits Page, as of Saturday afternoon. I’m not saying Arizona isn’t one of the best teams in the country and worthy of betting, but the spread is showing some disrespect of Utah State from the Mountain West.

The Aggies look like an old-school Sweet 16 Cinderella as they shoot 3-pointers on 40% of their possessions (and hit a solid 35%), but they also have a better defense than we sometimes see from mid-majors, as they should be able to contend in the paint with Arizona, where the Wildcats love to feast. Utah State scored 86 points in its first-round win over Villanova, and that was with going only 2-for-16 from 3-point range, so I’m counting on them learning from that and shooting better Sunday night. I’m not going to bet the moneyline as I fully expect Arizona to advance, but this is too many points to pass up (though I advise waiting to see if the line steams even higher).

Alabama +1 vs. Texas Tech

Sunday, 9:45 p.m. ET

After Texas Tech and Alabama, respectively, rolled to first-round victories on Thursday over Akron and Hofstra, oddsmakers opened No. 4 Alabama as a 1-point favorite over No. 5 Texas Tech. However, by Saturday, Texas Tech had been bet to favoritism at several books with 56% of the bets and 70% of the money at Circa Sports (56% on both at DraftKings).

This is obviously close to a coin-flip matchup with the seedings and Crimson Tide just one spot ahead of the Red Raiders (No. 18 vs. No. 19) at kenpom.com, but we’ll fade the early money as the only reason we can see for bettors siding with Tech is because Bama is still without star guard Aden Holloway following his arrest on felony drug charges. This fits the “fallen star” theory as teams tend to pick up the slack when losing a top player, and Alabama (No. 3 in offensive efficiency) was still fine with putting up 90 points in its win over Hofstra. While I’m sure some sharps are helping drive Texas Tech to favoritism, I still believe Alabama should be favored and the right side.

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