In the No. 4 vs. No. 9 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, Nebraska vs. Iowa is the Sweet 16 game at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 26 with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line.

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How to Watch Nebraska vs. Iowa

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When: 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 26th

Where: Toyota Center in Houston, TX

Watch: TBS/truTV

Odds for Nebraska vs. Iowa

(odds current at time of publish)

Spread: Nebraska -2.5 (-110), Iowa +2.5 (-110)

Total: Over 134.5 (-115), Under 134.5 (-105)

Nebraska vs. Iowa Prediction & Preview

It’s not easy to be a No. 4 seed and wind up being the higher-seeded team in the Sweet 16, but that is the case for Nebraska, as fellow Big Ten brother Iowa knocked off Florida in what was ostensibly a home game for the Gators in Tampa. Now we have as neutral of a setting as it gets in Houston. Maybe. The Cornhuskers faithful seemed to travel en masse to Oklahoma City. Will they open the wallets and head to the Lone Star State for Thursday (and maybe Saturday)?

When this game was set in stone after the clock hit zeroes in the 1 vs. 9 matchup, it created the first rematch from a regular season game in the Sweet 16 round. These two teams actually played twice during the regular season and the games could have not gone more differently. It was a split, so this is the rubber match and the stakes are significantly higher here than they were on Feb. 17 and Mar. 8. In the first game, Iowa won 57-52 in a slopfest, with the two teams going 18-of-44 and 17-of-51 from the floor, racking up .865 and .948 points per possession.

Game 2 was required overtime and was played to 74 possessions after the first game reached just 60. Nebraska won that one in Lincoln 84-75, as the teams were 27-of-54 and 27-of-56 from the floor, with Nebraska racking up 1.128 PPP and Iowa 1.007 PPP. So, we’ll have to see what we have in store here, as Nebraska is in the Sweet 16 for the first time and Iowa is in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1999.

Obviously, unlike how this tournament usually functions, there is a ton of familiarity between these two teams. Also, with the extra rest and prep time, it should be tough sledding for both offenses. It was really tough sledding for Iowa star Bennett Stirtz, who couldn’t hit sand if he fell off a camel against Florida, going 0-for-9 from 3 with just 13 points. But, it’s worth pointing out that Stirtz, who is among the most valuable individuals in the nation, was objectively terrible and Iowa won anyway. They picked up their leader and that has to be a huge momentum booster for Ben McCollum’s club.

Stirtz is going to have to figure it out, though, because Pryce Sandfort was hotter than a Las Vegas parking lot in June with 23 points on 7-of-12 from 3 against Troy and he had 15 points in the win over Vanderbilt while only getting off nine shots. The Commodores did everything in their power to keep him from getting looks and it still wasn’t enough. So Sandfort, much like Stirtz, got a lift from his teammates when he wasn’t at his best.

The teams combined to go 11-for-47 from 3 in the first game and 21-of-57 in the second game, a game that Nebraska led by 10 with five minutes left. They blew that lead and eventually prevailed in overtime, but it wasn’t easy. Iowa turned the ball over 19 times in the rematch after both teams turned it over 12 times in the first game. Nebraska only had 12 turnovers in that second game and that’s one of the things that helped them mount a lead.

Statistically speaking, since we have two Big Ten teams here, we can compare conference resumes. Nebraska was actually No. 1 in the Big Ten in adjusted defensive efficiency and TO%, plus they had the best 3P% against at just 29.7%. Iowa was one spot better in adjusted offensive efficiency, but it should be noted that Nebraska was better in both eFG% offense and defense and much higher on the defensive side, as Iowa had a negative eFG% differential in conference play at -1.7%. Nebraska was +6.5%, second to Michigan in the conference.

Estimated Score: TBD

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