UConn vs. Michigan State Prediction

In the No. 2 vs. No. 3 matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region, UConn vs. Michigan State is the Sweet 16 game at 9:45 p.m. ET on Friday, March 27 with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line.

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How to Watch UConn vs. Michigan State

When: 9:45 pm ET on Friday, March 27th

Where: Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.

Watch: CBS

Odds for UConn vs. Michigan State

(odds current at time of publish)

Spread: UConn -1.5 (+102), Michigan State +1.5 (-122)

Total: Over 137.5 (-110), Under 137.5 (-110)

UConn vs. Michigan State Prediction & Preview

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All eyes will be on Silas Demary Jr. this week, as UConn drawing a Friday/Sunday region in the Sweet 16 could be a huge help with one extra day of rest. The Huskies were able to get by Furman without Demary, but he did not look like himself against UCLA. As the field thins and the class of opponent increases, having a full-strength roster is extremely important. As the line implies, these teams are pretty even and Demary, who had just two points in 22 minutes against the Bruins, averages better than six assists per game.

Like most Big Ten teams, Michigan State doesn’t really take the ball away very often, but Tom Izzo’s crew does force opponents into a lot of 3-point shots and that leads to a lot of one-and-done possessions. So a more engaged Demary who can help create some better shots for his teammates would be a tremendous help. Michigan State is the nation’s best defensive rebounding team by percentage and a top-10 group on the offensive glass. That’s where they make sure to control the possession game since their TO% is under 15%. In other words, UConn is going to have a handful of concerns on the glass and they’re going to have to make some more 3s than normal if they want to increase the likelihood of advancing.

Demary is also a 40% 3-point shooter. While Tarris Reed has shouldered a huge part of the scoring load thus far, Michigan State is a top-50 defense by 2P%. UCLA ranked in the 210s and Furman in the 160s. That deep threat has to be there in this game and UConn has gone just 13-of-49 (26.5%) in the NCAA Tournament thus far. Michigan State, meanwhile, has gone 21-of-46 from deep, including an 11-of-26 performance that really helped in the win over Louisville. Shooting the ball well from beyond the arc is very important in the Big Ten, where turnovers are a rarity, and Michigan State has shot 36.5% for the season and better than 35% in conference action.

The one thing about these teams unlike some of the others in the Sweet 16 is that there is a ton of experience. Braylon Mullins is a freshman who plays a lot for UConn, but a lot of the minutes go to seniors and juniors. Similarly, while Jordan Scott gets a good amount of playing time for the Spartans, the top four in percentage of minutes played are all upperclassmen. These should not be players overwhelmed by the moment and it does seem like we should get good execution and good crunch-time performance from both sides, adding more fuel to the fire of this being a pretty close contest.

It will be interesting to see the line movement on this game because of the success of the Big Ten. Everybody knows it was a down year in the Big East and so UConn may be looked down upon as a result. Meanwhile, the Big Ten has six teams still standing. The Huskies’ four-year run of tournament success, derailed only by eventual champion Florida in the second round last year, also counts for something. This is a pretty complex handicap all things considered.

Estimated Score: TBD

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