Steve Makinen’s Sweet 16 Team Ratings and Probabilities:

The NCAA Tournament’s first weekend was defining, no doubt, as favorites ruled for what is now the third year in a row. After the dust settled, not a single mid-major team remained, and the two so-called “Cinderella Teams” are two familiar big-school brands, #9 Iowa & #11 Texas. Clearly, the last few years have changed the perception of what is now March Madness. Whether or not the new standard is better or worse is up for debate, but as bettors, we need to adapt or die. In this piece, I’m going to do a bit of a review on what we’ve seen so far from a lot of the analysis I offered up going into the tournament from a trend and rating perspective, plus I will look ahead to the Sweet 16 and beyond, offering up some futures’ wagers opinions to add to the one’s I already made in the VSiN March Mania Guide.

Looking Back

From the feedback I’ve received from VSiN Pro Subscribers, many of you are obviously disappointed about getting behind some of the trends I shared, suggesting backing underdogs in certain spots this past weekend. Most of these trends are long-running angles. Unfortunately, as we’ve seen, and as I was profusive about in the lead-up to this year’s bracket play, the tournament has changed dramatically over the last couple of years. Since UConn won its first of back-to-back national titles in 2023 with a Final Four as a #1 seed, alongside two #5s & #9, the NCAA tournament has become “chalky.” Sure, there were a number of fantastic games, some buzzer beaters, and some stunning upsets, but as we head to the next round of games, we have only Power 5 leagues remaining. So, while those of you hoping to see a High Point, a VCU, or perhaps even a Gonzaga still alive, we all have to come to grips with the new reality and just enjoy the tremendous level of basketball we are witnessing. With that in mind, while some of the trend action may have been disappointing, the “Prior Tournament Game Reactionary Systems” I discovered last year continued to fare well. Look for those, along with the rest of the updated trend data for the Sweet 16 games, when I publish the Analytics Report for that round on Wednesday. 

For now, let’s look back at how my five ratings sets and my Shared Trait analysis fared over the opening weekend.

Opening Rounds Power Ratings Results
In all, seven of the top 8, 12 of the top 15, and 14 of the top 20 teams in my Power Rating heading into the tournament reached the Sweet 16. The only outliers were #29 Iowa & #37 Texas advancing to this point, and the biggest miss was obviously on Florida, my #4-ranked team in Power Rating.

Opening Rounds Effective Strength Results
The Effective Strength Ratings were a bit less successful than the Power Ratings, with the breakdown of teams making the Sweet 16: 8 out of the top 10 and 13 out of the top 17. Outside of that group were #21 Nebraska, #26 Iowa, and #42 Texas. Ironically, two of those outliers will meet for a berth in the Elite Eight in what figures to be a very intense rivalry game between the Cornhuskers and Hawkeyes. In this rating set, the top-rated teams eliminated were #4 Florida & #7 Gonzaga.

Opening Rounds Bettors Ratings Results
It seems that the markets had a good read on these teams heading into the tournament, as my Bettors’ Ratings reflect market sentiment. In this metric, a rating set high of 10 of the top 12 teams are still alive, with Florida (#3) and Gonzaga (#8) being the odd teams out. You’ll again see for this coming weekend that Nebraska, Iowa, and Texas are the worst remaining teams in the field in the eyes of bettors.

Opening Rounds Game Grade Forecast Results
If you recall, I added these Game Grade Forecasts to the mix for the tournament two years ago. They’ve been wildly successful in both brackets since. This season has proven to be a little less so thus far. In this metric, 12 of the top 17 are still alive, but teams like Florida (#2), Wisconsin (#5) and Ohio State (#9) really disappointed by not making it to the second weekend.

Opening Rounds Momentum Ratings Results
How important did it prove to be “hot” going into the tournament? In short, not nearly as much as a team’s body of work. In fact, only five of the top eight, nine of the top 18 in my Momentum Ratings metric are still alive. The three usual teams as outliers to make the Sweet 16 are still there, as are some other unexpected teams like St. John’s, Arkansas, Alabama, and Tennessee from this metric.

Shared Traits Potential Cinderella Chart Results
From my article last week on Shared Traits of Cinderella, Upset Victim, Final Four, and potential Champions, the results were mixed. Obviously, the lack of true Cinderella teams in the normal sense has affected results in recent years and has also had a big impact on the potential upset-victim analysis. That said, our Cinderella teams for this year are officially Iowa and Texas, and those teams ranked tied for second and tied for seventh, respectively, in the article. Kentucky and Utah State were among the four teams at the top of this chart, and they won opening games before bowing out in the second round.

Shared Traits Potential Upset Victims Chart Results
The potential Upset Victims analysis this season was dead on, with the top two on the chart (BYU and North Carolina) eliminated in upset fashion in their first games. In addition, another five of the top nine teams also failed to make it to the second weekend. Only Tennessee and St. John’s survived potential-lacking resumes to make it to the Sweet 16 from that group.

Shared Traits Potential Final Four Chart Results
The potential Final Four qualifiers chart also proved quite prophetic, with the clear top three teams reaching the second weekend with a combined 5-1 ATS record, and five of the top six overall advancing to the Sweet 16. Only Virginia from that group is missing. We will see if Arizona, Duke, Iowa State, Connecticut, or Purdue fulfill their Final Four destinies this weekend.

Shared Traits Potential Champions Chart Results
As I explain in the Shared Traits article, there is a big difference between Final Four worthy and being title worthy. The Potential Champions chart from the article also showed a nice start to the tournament, with the four clear top teams still alive after the first weekend. Add Michigan to the three teams I named from the Final Four top group as most title-worthy.

Looking Ahead to the Sweet 16
As we are now down to the Sweet 16, let’s take a look at the updated ratings, percentage advancement chances, and some potential futures bets to consider for each region.

East Region

Seed, Team (Conference – Head Coach)

1. DUKE (ACC – Jon Scheyer)
Opponent: vs. ST JOHNS (#5, Conference: Big East)
Makinen Power Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 96.5 (3)
Makinen Effective Strength Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 27.4 (2)
Makinen Bettors’ Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): -26.3 (2)
Makinen Game Grade Forecast (Sweet 16 Rank): 30.6 (1)
Makinen Momentum Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 24.5 (5)
5-Rating chance to reach Elite 8: 69.9%
5-Rating chance to reach Final Four: 50.0%5-Rating chance to reach Championship Game: 32.0%
5-Rating chance to reach win National Title: 18.0%

2. CONNECTICUT (Big East – Dan Hurley)
Opponent: vs. MICHIGAN ST (#2, Conference: Big Ten)
Makinen Power Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 89.5 (9)
Makinen Effective Strength Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 20.8 (8)
Makinen Bettors’ Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): -20.5 (8)
Makinen Game Grade Forecast (Sweet 16 Rank): 16.5 (13)
Makinen Momentum Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 15.3 (14)
5-Rating chance to reach Elite 8: 45.6%
5-Rating chance to reach Final Four: 14.7%
5-Rating chance to reach Championship Game: 5.9%
5-Rating chance to reach win National Title: 1.9%

3. MICHIGAN ST (Big Ten – Tom Izzo)
Opponent: vs. CONNECTICUT (#3, Conference: Big East)
Makinen Power Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 90 (8)
Makinen Effective Strength Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 19.8 (12)
Makinen Bettors’ Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): -19.6 (9)
Makinen Game Grade Forecast (Sweet 16 Rank): 20.5 (10)
Makinen Momentum Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 20.3 (11)
5-Rating chance to reach Elite 8: 54.4%
5-Rating chance to reach Final Four: 19.7%
5-Rating chance to reach Championship Game: 8.7%
5-Rating chance to reach win National Title: 3.2%

5. ST JOHNS (Big East – Rick Pitino)
Opponent: vs. DUKE (#5, Conference: ACC)
Makinen Power Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 89.5 (12)
Makinen Effective Strength Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 19.4 (13)
Makinen Bettors’ Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): -17.1 (12)
Makinen Game Grade Forecast (Sweet 16 Rank): 22.2 (9)
Makinen Momentum Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 21.2 (8)
5-Rating chance to reach Elite 8: 30.2%
5-Rating chance to reach Final Four: 15.7%
5-Rating chance to reach Championship Game: 6.8%
5-Rating chance to reach win National Title: 2.4% 

Steve’s East Region Futures’ Wager: My numbers indicate that Duke has a 50% chance to reach the Final Four. The DraftKings price is -125, very fair for a normally higher-juiced prop wager. In my opinion, this region’s four teams are a set of three tier two teams and one elite. It’s been said and believed that favorite teams that survive a real scare in the opening round(s) tend to do very well in the later rounds. I agree, and the fact that the Blue Devils were sleepwalking through the opening half of their first-round game versus Siena may turn out to be a blessing in disguise. I’ll go Duke -125 to win the East Region.

South Region

Seed, Team (Conference – Head Coach)

2. HOUSTON (Big 12 – Kelvin Sampson)
Opponent: vs. ILLINOIS (#3, Conference: Big Ten)
Makinen Power Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 94 (4)
Makinen Effective Strength Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 23 (6)
Makinen Bettors’ Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): -23.2 (4)
Makinen Game Grade Forecast (Sweet 16 Rank): 28.5 (4)
Makinen Momentum Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 27.7 (3)
5-Rating chance to reach Elite 8: 57.4%
5-Rating chance to reach Final Four: 44.0%
5-Rating chance to reach Championship Game: 24.3%
5-Rating chance to reach win National Title: 12.4%

3. ILLINOIS (Big Ten – Brad Underwood)
Opponent: vs. HOUSTON (#2, Conference: Big 12)
Makinen Power Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 93 (5)
Makinen Effective Strength Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 24.8 (4)
Makinen Bettors’ Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): -22.5 (5)
Makinen Game Grade Forecast (Sweet 16 Rank): 23.8 (7)
Makinen Momentum Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 20.7 (10)
5-Rating chance to reach Elite 8: 42.7%
5-Rating chance to reach Final Four: 30.2%
5-Rating chance to reach Championship Game: 14.8%
5-Rating chance to reach win National Title: 6.6%

4. NEBRASKA (Big Ten – Fred Hoiberg)
Opponent: vs. IOWA (#9, Conference: Big Ten)
Makinen Power Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 88.5 (14)
Makinen Effective Strength Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 17.8 (14)
Makinen Bettors’ Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): -15.6 (14)
Makinen Game Grade Forecast (Sweet 16 Rank): 14.1 (14)
Makinen Momentum Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 15.4 (13)
5-Rating chance to reach Elite 8: 55.9%
5-Rating chance to reach Final Four: 15.6%
5-Rating chance to reach Championship Game: 4.7%
5-Rating chance to reach win National Title: 1.3%

9. IOWA (Big Ten – Ben McCollum)
Opponent: vs. NEBRASKA (#4, Conference: Big Ten)
Makinen Power Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 85.5 (15)
Makinen Effective Strength Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 16.3 (15)
Makinen Bettors’ Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): -14.4 (15)
Makinen Game Grade Forecast (Sweet 16 Rank): 10.8 (16)
Makinen Momentum Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 14.7 (15)
5-Rating chance to reach Elite 8: 44.1%
5-Rating chance to reach Final Four: 10.2%
5-Rating chance to reach Championship Game: 2.7%
5-Rating chance to reach win National Title: 0.6% 

Steve’s South Region Futures’ Wager: Although I can’t officially build in any home court advantage ratings since the South Region games are considered to be “neutral,” you have to believe that Houston will have a tremendous “neutral court advantage” playing in their home city for the South Region Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games should the Cougars be fortunate enough to advance. That said, I’m not a huge fan of the prices on the Cougars and was very impressed with Illinois’ first two games. I believe the Illini will give Houston all it can handle on Thursday. Instead, I am going to go with a unique “Advances Further” wager available on DraftKings right now with Arizona -140 over Houston.

Midwest Region

Seed, Team (Conference – Head Coach)

1. MICHIGAN (Big Ten – Dusty May)
Opponent: vs. ALABAMA (#4, Conference: SEC)
Makinen Power Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 97.5 (1)
Makinen Effective Strength Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 28.4 (1)
Makinen Bettors’ Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): -26.5 (1)
Makinen Game Grade Forecast (Sweet 16 Rank): 24.3 (5)
Makinen Momentum Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 21.2 (7)
5-Rating chance to reach Elite 8: 65.9%
5-Rating chance to reach Final Four: 35.0%
5-Rating chance to reach Championship Game: 19.0%
5-Rating chance to reach win National Title: 10.6%

2. IOWA ST (Big 12 – TJ Otzelberger)
Opponent: vs. TENNESSEE (#6, Conference: SEC)
Makinen Power Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 93 (6)
Makinen Effective Strength Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 24.7 (5)
Makinen Bettors’ Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): -22.5 (6)
Makinen Game Grade Forecast (Sweet 16 Rank): 30 (2)
Makinen Momentum Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 32.3 (1)
5-Rating chance to reach Elite 8: 69.9%
5-Rating chance to reach Final Four: 40.7%
5-Rating chance to reach Championship Game: 23.1%
5-Rating chance to reach win National Title: 13.4%

4. ALABAMA (SEC – Nate Oats)
Opponent: vs. MICHIGAN (#1, Conference: Big Ten)
Makinen Power Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 89.5 (10)
Makinen Effective Strength Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 20.2 (9)
Makinen Bettors’ Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): -16.5 (13)
Makinen Game Grade Forecast (Sweet 16 Rank): 22.5 (8)
Makinen Momentum Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 21.3 (6)
5-Rating chance to reach Elite 8: 34.2%
5-Rating chance to reach Final Four: 12.8%
5-Rating chance to reach Championship Game: 4.9%
5-Rating chance to reach win National Title: 1.9%

6. TENNESSEE (SEC – Rick Barnes)
Opponent: vs. IOWA ST (#2, Conference: Big 12)
Makinen Power Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 88.5 (13)
Makinen Effective Strength Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 20 (10)
Makinen Bettors’ Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): -19 (10)
Makinen Game Grade Forecast (Sweet 16 Rank): 19.5 (12)
Makinen Momentum Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 19.8 (12)
5-Rating chance to reach Elite 8: 30.2%
5-Rating chance to reach Final Four: 11.5%
5-Rating chance to reach Championship Game: 4.2%
5-Rating chance to reach win National Title: 1.6%

Steve’s South Region Futures’ Wager: I had Iowa State to reach the Final Four as a futures wager in the VSiN March Mania Guide, and I don’t see any reason to go away from that now. I think there are some obvious concerns with Michigan right now, in that the Wolverines didn’t look good defensively in their first two games. I also don’t think their guards are elite, and continuity typically gets it done late in the tournament. ISU has both of those latter traits in bulk. A healthy Joshua Jefferson would definitely help. Give me ISU +250 to win the region.

West Region

Seed, Team (Conference – Head Coach)

1. ARIZONA (Big 12 – Tommy Lloyd)
Opponent: vs. ARKANSAS (#4, Conference: SEC)
Makinen Power Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 97 (2)
Makinen Effective Strength Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 27.1 (3)
Makinen Bettors’ Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): -25.1 (3)
Makinen Game Grade Forecast (Sweet 16 Rank): 28.8 (3)
Makinen Momentum Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 28 (2)
5-Rating chance to reach Elite 8: 71.2%
5-Rating chance to reach Final Four: 47.8%
5-Rating chance to reach Championship Game: 27.4%
5-Rating chance to reach win National Title: 16.4%

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2. PURDUE (Big Ten – Matt Painter)
Opponent: vs. TEXAS (#11, Conference: SEC)
Makinen Power Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 92.5 (7)
Makinen Effective Strength Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 22.5 (7)
Makinen Bettors’ Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): -22.2 (7)
Makinen Game Grade Forecast (Sweet 16 Rank): 24.3 (6)
Makinen Momentum Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 24.9 (4)
5-Rating chance to reach Elite 8: 74.8%
5-Rating chance to reach Final Four: 33.4%
5-Rating chance to reach Championship Game: 15.5%
5-Rating chance to reach win National Title: 7.6%

4. ARKANSAS (SEC – John Calipari)
Opponent: vs. ARIZONA (#1, Conference: Big 12)
Makinen Power Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 89.5 (11)
Makinen Effective Strength Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 19.9 (11)
Makinen Bettors’ Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): -17.5 (11)
Makinen Game Grade Forecast (Sweet 16 Rank): 20.2 (11)
Makinen Momentum Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 20.8 (9)
5-Rating chance to reach Elite 8: 28.9%
5-Rating chance to reach Final Four: 13.4%
5-Rating chance to reach Championship Game: 4.8%
5-Rating chance to reach win National Title: 1.8%

11. TEXAS (SEC – Sean Miller)
Opponent: vs. PURDUE (#2, Conference: Big Ten)
Makinen Power Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 85.5 (16)
Makinen Effective Strength Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 14.1 (16)
Makinen Bettors’ Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): -13.8 (16)
Makinen Game Grade Forecast (Sweet 16 Rank): 13.9 (15)
Makinen Momentum Rating (Sweet 16 Rank): 13.2 (16)
5-Rating chance to reach Elite 8: 25.2%
5-Rating chance to reach Final Four: 5.5%
5-Rating chance to reach Championship Game: 1.2%
5-Rating chance to reach win National Title: 0.3%

Steve’s West Region Futures’ Wager: I also had Purdue -105 to reach the Elite Eight. In looking back/ahead, the Boilermakers might wind up having the easiest path to that destination of any team. They are currently a -325 money line wager to beat Texas, so I do have a nice hedging opportunity. That said, Purdue has gotten to this point without Braden Smith even playing that well. If he gets hot this weekend, Purdue could easily find itself in Indianapolis for the Final Four next weekend. However, as I already have a nice play for this region in pocket, I will instead turn to Arkansas to give Arizona a game on Thursday night. The Razorbacks and Darius Acuff can score on anyone, and the Wildcats were a bit sloppy versus Utah State. Plus, you will see later this week that Sweet 16 favorites of 5-points or more are 20-11 SU but just 11-20 ATS (35.5%) since 2017. Give me Arkansas +7.5.

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