UFC Seattle Predictions:

Seattle hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night, an event scheduled for 13 bouts to be held in the 30-foot octagon and in front of a wailing Washington crowd. 

There are 12 US athletes on the card, five of whom are from the immediate Seattle area, and two Canadian athletes are competing. 

The remaining athletes ship in from around the globe. That said, there is only one fight in which an athlete from outside the U.S. must travel to the States to take on a domestic fighter. That fight is Fortune vs. Tybura, with Tybura shipping in from Poland.

Last week’s favorites went 9-3. To date, UFC favorites stand 76-23 or 76.7%. 

Last week, this column made three releases that were all favorite positions, realizing a net +3.0u. 

Let’s keep the momentum going!

Israel Adesanya -140 vs. Joe Pyfer +120 

Embed from Getty Images

Middleweight (185 pounds) main event

Fourteenth-ranked Pyfer is a 29-year-old heavy-handed, power-striking knockout artist who is 15-3 professionally and 6-1 in UFC competition. Pyfer has finished 11 of the 15 athletes he’s competed against. 

He enters this foundational fight off a finish and now takes on a man in Adesanya who has been finished in three of his last four losses over five bouts. 

For Pyfer, who sports a modest +.42 significant strike differential, pace will be important in this fight as he must find a way to corner/confront his highly athletic, fluid-moving opponent. 

Pyfer relies on his strength, power, and might. He is seven years younger, which heaps advantage his way. However, he’ll need to be able to maneuver, cut the cage, and effectively corner his evasive opponent, or he will be swinging at air for twenty-five minutes.  

Former champion Israel Adesanya believes his championship days are not behind him despite the fact that he’s lost four of his last five bouts, albeit to world-class mixed martial artists, all of whom are currently ranked higher than Pyfer is.

Adesanya has the class, athleticism, and experience to paint Pyfer’s fence throughout this fight. To do that, he must remain fleet-footed and direct his offense on Pyfer from distance. He can use diverse angles to launch his strikes/kicks, coupled with evasive movement, to maintain the appropriate distance he will need to keep the more plodding Pyfer on the outside of the pocket. 

While Pyfer does have a limited wrestling/BJJ background, he may not choose to use it. It’s expected that this fight will be waged on the feet. Adesanya sports a sturdy 76% take down defense.

In a stand-up war, Adesanya holds advantage, provided he is able to utilize fluidity of movement, his ability to evade strikes, and rely on his deep championship experience in UFC battles.

For Pyfer, his task is much simpler yet maybe more difficult to undertake. 

Pyfer must immediately walk Adesanya down. Most especially, he needs to back him up and force him to expend his most precious commodity, his cardio. In previous fights, we have seen Adesanya, now 36, show the propensity to tire. 

For Pyfer, he must find a way through diligent, forceful, forward pressure to corner the more athletic former champion and immediately unleash damaging body shots, leg kicks, and power strikes, which will mute his opponent’s athleticism.

Somehow, Pyfer, though pressure and/or power punching, must sap Adesanya of his will/cardio, which will, in essence, allow these two to fight on par. Should Pyfer be able to eventually drain Issy of his agility, then the potential for success later is great for Pyfer’s entering his prime fighting years while Adesanya’s on the outer limit of his.

Taxing Adesanya mentally and physically is the most important aspect of this fight for Pyfer. Should he be able to sap just a little of the quickness and fluidity of movement from the old champion, then catching up to Adesanya and being able to bludgeon him with those thudding leg kicks and power shots may definitely pay off. 

This should be an epic clash of styles as Adesanya’s mobility and volume strike attack will thrive should Pyfer be overly aggressive, plodding, and/or deliberate. Should Issy be able to work in space utilizing his dexterity of striking, he could dominate this bout.

Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds Over -125

Mansur Abdul-Malik -125 vs. Yousri Belgaroui +105 

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Prepare yourselves for a striking clash treat in this battle. 

In one corner, Abdul-Malik is a talented power-striking fighter who has compiled a 3-0-1 record in the UFC, albeit against very nominally talented opposition. Abdul-Malik finished three of his UFC opponents and arrives at this showdown with undefeated momentum and the anticipation of what another impressive win will mean for his trajectory in the division and within the organization.

In the opposing corner, Yousri Belgaroui trains with Alex Pereira and Glover Teixeira in Connecticut. This fighter is a world-class kickboxer who has been developing his mixed martial arts weaponry, as he is currently a more singularly dimensioned fighter. 

Belgaroui is 8-3 professionally and 1-0 in UFC competition against a formidable foe. His tremendous height (6’5”) allows him to tower over most competition, and his arm/leg reach presents him substantial advantage in stand-up fights. 

Belgaroui, who is highly athletic and quick, intertwines his length with deft footwork, nimble strike evasion, and straight-out precision punching power to create advantage for him in fights.  

We’ve seen little of each of these men other than standing and throwing, so that’s exactly the kind of fight I believe will occur. Abdul-Malik will forge forward and try to set up in the pocket to throw power, and Belgaroui will attempt to maintain his striking distance in order to batter Abdul-Malik on his way inside to engage. 

This fight sets up to be an epic striking war, but one where I must favor Belgaroui,

UFC Seattle Best Bet: Yousri Belgaroui +105

Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -175

Friday, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms or access it at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading. Enjoy the fights!

The post UFC Seattle: Adesanya vs. Pyfer Odds, Picks, Predictions and Best Bets appeared first on VSiN.