Two more NIT games serve as appetizers to Thursday’s main course when we get the first four Sweet 16 games. We don’t have rematches or a major travel angle like we had last night. These games are pretty straightforward, even if Nevada traveling all the way out to Auburn is a little bit of an outlier. The Wolf Pack played their first two NIT games at home, unlike the situation Saint Joseph’s was in last night.

So, we’ve just got to dig into the numbers and the matchups and see if there’s a play to be made.

We’ve got previews for all of the March Madness Sweet 16 games in our NCAA Tournament Betting Hub.

For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.

As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.

This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.

This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Illinois State Redbirds at Dayton Flyers (-7.5, 140.5)

Embed from Getty Images

7 p.m. ET

Dayton is finally back at home where they belong for the NIT. The Flyers secured one of the No. 1 seeds in their respective region, but played both of last week’s games on the road with the First Four in town during the first one and then they had to go play in Wilmington, NC for some reason this past Saturday. Illinois State beat Kent State at home and then went on the road and knocked off Wake Forest in their first power-conference win of the season.

That sets up an interesting matchup here. After scoring just .835 points per possession against Northern Iowa in the MVC Tournament, the Redbirds have scored 1.143 and 1.123 PPP in their two NIT games, putting up 68 3-point shots. They own a 43.2% 3P Rate for the season, but they’ve taken more 3s than 2s in each of those NIT matchups. And, for the most part, it has worked, outscoring the Golden Flashes 39-21 and the Demon Deacons 30-15 from beyond the arc.

It’s safe to assume that they’ll attempt to do the same thing against Dayton. The Flyers beat MVC member Bradley by 14 in their first NIT game and then UNC Wilmington by 19, so they’ve responded extremely well to losing in the A-10 Tournament final against hated rival VCU. It seemed like it could be a tough turnaround, but they’re salvaging the month of March thus far.

I like the Over 140.5 in this one. Illinois State is going to take a bunch of 3s again and Dayton struggles to defend the perimeter, allowing a 35.4% 3P% up until this point. Even in that first game, Bradley was 10-of-22 from 3. It was just a game played to 60 possessions and they were just 13-of-29 inside the arc, so that’s how they wound up with 66 points.

Dayton has scored 80 points in each of their NIT games, games played to 60 and 64 possessions. This one will be played at a little bit of a faster pace. It won’t be an up-and-down game by any means, but it should be around 66 or 67 possessions. Dayton’s scored 1.339 and 1.258 PPP in their two games, as they’ve been extremely efficient. The performance against the usually stingy Seahawks was a big eye-opener to me and I think they can ride that wave here.

Pick: Over 140.5

Nevada Wolf Pack at Auburn Tigers (-9.5, 154.5)

9 p.m. ET

Nevada possibly gets a bit of a break here with this game the second of the two tonight. This is easily the easternmost spot for a game this season for the Wolf Pack, who never went farther east than the Mountain Time Zone. With the Mountain West Tournament in Las Vegas, this is the first time Nevada had left the Silver State since losing by 10 at Wyoming on Mar. 3. In fact, Nevada has lost six true road games in a row, including a ghastly 16-point loss at San Jose State.

Auburn’s motivation coming into the tournament was a real question mark. Even though they are 2-0 and haven’t had to leave home, it does seem like they’ve just been able to rely on their talent advantage in wins over South Alabama and Seattle. They’ve allowed over a point per possession to those two highly inferior teams while getting whatever they wanted on offense.

Seattle was 16-of-31 from 3 in last Sunday’s game, so that was an unlikely outlier to say the least and produced just a six-point win. I don’t know if we’re going to see Auburn really show up on defense. They didn’t make the NCAA Tournament because of their defense, as they regularly allowed over 1.2 PPP in conference play and over 1.3 PPP in several games.

They should win and cover here, but I’m not confident enough in their defensive effort level to see it come to fruition. But, Nevada was a terrible road team at the end of the season and that could very well continue. I’ll just have the one play in the early game tonight.

The post College Basketball Bets for Wednesday, March 25 from Adam Burke appeared first on VSiN.