I continue the series qualifying the key data from my recently published articles in the VSiN March Mania Betting Guide for the Sweet 16 Round. Best of luck on the Thursday & Friday games. 

Note that all the trend records, unless noted, are as of heading into this year’s tournament.

Prior Tournament Game Systems

Here are the “prior game reactionary systems” of 62% or better that I found when I studied the subject and how they impact the Thursday & Friday games:

NCAA Tournament Prior Game System #2
· Teams that win in the NCAA’s by scoring 88 or more points have gone 61-10 SU and 44-27 ATS (62%) in the follow-up game since 2000 when favored by 6-points or more.
Steve’s thoughts: A big offensive performance can dramatically lift the confidence of a team in a tournament setting. I would think this system would be enhanced in short turnaround games.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Michigan 

• Laying big points seems to be getting more and more risky in the Sweet 16 in recent years, as favorites of 5 points or more are 20-11 SU but just 11-20 ATS (35.5%) since 2017.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: AGAINST Purdue, Michigan, Duke, Arizona

• Sweet 16 favorites of 8-points or more are on a 29-9-3 Under (76.3%) the total run, allowing 63.4 PPG.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: UNDER the total in Alabama-Michigan

• Sweet 16 #1 and #2 seeds have taken care of business lately and combined are on a 45-17 SU and 35-26-1 ATS (57.4%) run over the last 11 seasons.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Houston, Purdue, Arizona, Duke, Connecticut, Michigan, Iowa State

• Sweet 16 round is usually the end of the line for double-digit seeds. However, they have been very competitive as underdogs, going 17-7-1 ATS (70.8%) in that role since 2011.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Texas

• The popular #1-#4 matchup has seen #1’s win most often lately, 15-4 SU in the last 19, but they are just 1-6 ATS (14.3%) in the last seven.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: AGAINST ATS Michigan, Arizona

• Over the last 11 years, there have been 26 Sweet 16 games with totals of less than 138, and Under the total is 19-7 (73.1%).
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: UNDER the total in Michigan State-Connecticut, Iowa-Nebraska

• Teams seeded in the #5-#9 range and a “surprise Sweet 16 team” are dangerous small underdogs of +7.5 points or fewer vs. better-seeded teams in this round, 24-33 SU and 31-22-4 ATS (58.5%) since 2000.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: St Johns

• I mentioned earlier that bettors have not enjoyed a winning second round since 2017, and I referenced the short prep window as the potential reason. In the Sweet 16, they have bounced back, going 42-30-1 ATS (58.3%) in moving opening lines since 2012.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: As of Wednesday, 7:00 PM ET, public bettors were favoring Iowa, Arkansas, Alabama, Connecticut, and Tennessee 

ACC

Teams in the Sweet 16 field/matchup
DUKE (East – #1) vs. ST. JOHN’S #5 – Big East 

Trends

–  Over the last four NCAA tournaments, the ACC boasts a record of 37-20 SU and ATS (64.9%).
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Duke

–  By round, ACC teams have demonstrated some recent definitive runs or skids…In second-round games, ACC teams are on an incredible 20-4 SU and 18-6 ATS (75%) run. In Sweet 16 games, they are 22-12 ATS (64.7%) since 2014. In the Final Four round, ACC teams are just 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS (22.2%) in their last nine. In title games, teams are on an 8-3 SU and ATS (72.7%) surge.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Duke

–  In the 21 most recent NCAA tourney matchups between the ACC and Big East, Over the total is 14-7 (66.7%).
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: OVER the total in Duke-St. John’s

Big 12

Teams in the Sweet 16 field/matchup
ARIZONA (West – #1) vs. ARKANSAS #4 – SEC
HOUSTON (South – #2) vs. ILLINOIS #3 – Big Ten
IOWA STATE (Midwest – #2) vs. TENNESSEE #6 – SEC 

Trends

– Underdogs are on a 10-3-1 ATS (76.9%) run in NCAAT games between the Big 12 and Big Ten conferences.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: AGAINST Houston

–  As favorites of 7 points or more in the NCAAs, Big 12 teams are on a current run of 37-2 SU and 26-13 ATS (66.7%).
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Arizona

–  In expectedly high-scoring NCAA tournament games, or those with totals >155, Big 12 teams are on a 19-8 ATS (70.3%) run.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Arizona

Big East

Teams in the Sweet 16 field/matchup
CONNECTICUT (East – #2) vs. MICHIGAN ST #2 – Big Ten
ST. JOHN’S (East – #5) vs. DUKE #5 – ACC 

Trends

– Top two seeded (#1s & #2s) from the Big East have validated their positions by going 29-7 SU and 26-10 ATS (72.2%) in the NCAAs since 2016.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Connecticut

– Big East teams have gone 24-8 Under the total (75%) when matched up vs. the Big Ten in the NCAAs since 2003.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: UNDER the total in Connecticut-Michigan State

– Favorites are 56-23 ATS (70.9%) in the last 79 Big East NCAA tourney games, including 28-9 ATS (75.7%) the last three years.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Connecticut, AGAINST St. John’s

– Big East teams have struggled in the NCAAT in the +3 to -3 line range, going 39-56 ATS (41.1%) since 2004.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: AGAINST Connecticut

Big Ten

Teams in the Sweet 16 field/matchup
ILLINOIS (South – #3) vs. HOUSTON #2 – Big 12
IOWA (South – #9) vs. NEBRASKA #4 – Big Ten
MICHIGAN (Midwest – #1) vs. ALABAMA #4 – SEC
MICHIGAN STATE (East – #3) vs. CONNECTICUT #3 – Big East
NEBRASKA (South – #4) vs. IOWA #9 – Big Ten
PURDUE (West – #2) vs. TEXAS #11 – SEC 

Trends

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–  Big Ten teams are on an insane 48-21 Under the total (69.6%) run in the last four NCAA tournaments.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: UNDER the total in Illinois-Houston, Iowa-Nebraska, Michigan-Alabama, Michigan State-Connecticut, Purdue-Texas

–  Big Ten teams have been vulnerable in the #4 seed of late, 8-15-1 ATS (34.8%) in their last 24 tourney tries.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: AGAINST Nebraska

– Big Ten teams are on a 15-13 SU and 17-10-1 ATS (62.9%) run vs. SEC foes in the NCAA tourney, but they were 2-5 SU and ATS last year.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Michigan, Purdue

– Big Ten teams have gone just 16-23 SU and 17-21-1 ATS (44.7%) since 2015 in the NCAA tournament vs. Big 12 foes.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: AGAINST Illinois

– The Big Ten’s worst round overall lately has been the Sweet 16, 18-26 SU and 15-27-2 ATS (35.7%) since 2007.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: AGAINST Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue

SEC

Teams in the Sweet 16 field/matchup
ALABAMA (Midwest – #4) vs. MICHIGAN #1 – Big Ten
ARKANSAS (West – #4) vs. ARIZONA #1 – Big 12
TENNESSEE (Midwest – #6) vs. IOWA STATE #2 – Big 12
TEXAS (West – #11) vs. PURDUE #2 – Big Ten 

Trends

–  SEC teams have been a solid wager in the Sweet 16 round, 29-15-2 ATS (65.9%) since ’03.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas

– Seeded in the bottom half of the field (#9-#14), SEC teams have struggled to a 12-30 SU and 17-23-2 ATS (42.5%) record since 2007.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: AGAINST Texas

– The #4 seed and the SEC haven’t meshed well of late, as they are 19-26 ATS (42.2%) in that spot since 2000 and have gone Under the total at a 30-14-1 (68.2%) rate.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: AGAINST Alabama, Arkansas, and UNDER the total in Alabama-Michigan & Arkansas-Arizona

–  In lower totaled NCAAT games featuring the SEC, or those less than 140, they are just 22-39 ATS (36.2%) since 2014.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: AGAINST Tennessee

There are only three Sweet 16 Round games with any recent relevance in terms of head-to-head history: 

(615) IOWA vs (616) NEBRASKA
* Favorites are on runs of 4-1 ATS and 12-7 ATS in the recent history of the Iowa-Nebraska rivalry 

(617) TEXAS vs (618) PURDUE
* The most recent three meetings between Texas and Purdue all went Over the total, the most recent a 81-71 decision in the 2022 NCAA tournament 

(621) ST. JOHN’S vs (622) DUKE
* Over the total is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings between St. John’s and Duke. However, the most recent clash in 2019 was the lone Under 

(623) MICHIGAN STATE vs (624) CONNECTICUT
* The last five meetings between Michigan State and Connecticut, all neutral court contests, went Under the total by an average of 12.6 PPG

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