Today March Madness returns with a four-pack of NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for all four games using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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7:10 p.m. ET: Texas vs Purdue (-7.5, 147.5)

Texas (21-14) is the 11-seed and just took down Gonzaga 74-68 in the second round, winning outright as 6-point neutral site dogs. On the other hand, Purdue (29-8) is the 2-seed and just brushed aside Miami 79-69 in the second round, covering as 8-point neutral site favorites.

This line opened with Purdue listed as a 7.5-point neutral site favorite.

The public is leaning slightly toward taking the points with Texas, as the Longhorns are receiving 54% of spread bets at DraftKings.

However, despite the public lean toward the Longhorns we’ve seen Purdue remain at -7.5 and also get juiced up -7.5 (-115), with a few other books flirting with a move up to -8. This indicates a sneaky “fade the trendy” reverse line move on Purdue minus the points.

At DraftKings, Purdue is taking in 46% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars. At Circa, Purdue is receiving 51% of spread bets and 60% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the Boilermakers.

Ken Pom has Purdue winning by eight points (82-74), which provides an edge on Boilermakers -7.5.

Purdue has the better offensive efficiency (1st vs 15th), effective field goal percentage (9th vs 71st), offensive rebound percentage (19th vs 39th), three-point shooting (8th vs 129th), defensive efficiency (33rd vs 81st) and also commit fewer turnovers on offense (18th vs 73rd).

Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 149.5 to 147.5.

At DraftKings, the under is taking in 26% of bets and 43% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 56% of bets and a whopping 84% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game.

Sweet 16 unders have gone 25-15 (63%) with a 20% ROI since 2020.

7:30 p.m. ET: Iowa vs Nebraska (-1.5, 131.5)

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Iowa (23-12) is the 9-seed and just upset Florida 73-72 in the second round, winning outright as 10.5-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Nebraska (28-6) is the 4-seed and just took down Vanderbilt 74-72 in the second round, winning outright as 1.5-point neutral site dogs.

This line opened with Nebraska listed as a 3-point neutral site favorite.

The public thinks this line is too short and 68% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Cornhuskers.

However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Nebraska fall from -3 to -1.5.

Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Nebraska to begin with? Because respected sharp action has sided with Iowa plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Hawkeyes.

Iowa offers notable “bet against the public” value as the Hawkeyes are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on TBS.

At Circa, Iowa is taking in only 27% of spread bets but 69% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split and further evidence of wiseguys in the desert taking the dog plus the points.

Iowa has the better offensive efficiency (25th vs 51st), effective field goal percentage (18th vs 27th), free-throw shooting (39th vs 75th), offensive rebound percentage (171st vs 311th) and force more turnovers on defense (15th vs 41st).

Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 134 to 131.5.

This downward movement is notable because the public is hammering the over (73% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell. At Circa, the under is taking in 33% of bets but 68% of dollars, a sharp split in favor of a lower scoring game.

Iowa is the 5th slowest paced team in college basketball, with Nebraska also ranking in the bottom third in terms of tempo.

9:45 p.m. ET: Arkansas vs Arizona (-8, 164.5)

Arkansas (28-8) is the 4-seed and just outlasted High Point 94-88 in the second round but failed to cover as 12.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Arizona (34-2) is the 1-seed and just brushed aside Utah State 78-66 in the second round, covering as 11.5-point neutral site favorites.

This line opened with Arizona listed as high as a 9.5-point neutral site favorite.

Sharps seem to have though that opener was a bit high and have jumped on Arkansas plus the points, dropping the Razorbacks down from +9.5 to +8, with some shops even inching down to +7.5.

Arkansas has betting system value as a “dog who can score” system match (90 PPG), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or earn a back door cover.

John Calipari has been highly profitable in this spot, going 12-3 ATS in his career in Sweet 16 games. He has also been excellent as an NCAA Tournament underdog, going 8-2 ATS (80%) and winning seven of those games straight up. Calipari went 7-0 ATS as a March Madness dog of 4-points or ore as head coach of Kentucky and Arkansas.

The Razorbacks have the better effective field goal percentage (15th vs 44th), three-point shooting (10th vs 44th), free-throw shooting (81st vs 170th) and also do a better job of not turning it over on offense (1st vs 77th).

In terms of the total, we saw it open at 166.5 and fall to 164.5 despite the public going over (57% of bets at DraftKing and 77% of bets at Circa). This indicates sharp reverse line movement in favor of the under.

10:05 p.m. ET: Illinois vs Houston (-2.5, 140)

Illinois (26-8) is the 3-seed and just dominated VCU 76-55 in the second round, easily covering as 12.5-point neutral site favorites. Similarly, Houston (30-6) is the 2-seed and just crushed Texas A&M 88-57 in the second round, cruising as 10-point neutral site favorites.

This line opened with Houston listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite.

The public can’t believe this line is so short and 66% of spread bets are rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the Cougars.

Early in the week, we saw Houston tick up from -2.5 to -3.5. However, since that time we’ve seen nothing but sharp buyback on Illinois plus the points, dropping the line back down to Houston -2.5.

Reading between the lines, we are seeing a sharp line freeze in favor of Illinois, as we are right back to the opening number despite the public pounding the Cougars.

At DraftKings, Illinois is receiving 34% of spread bets and 43% of spread dollars. At Circa, Illinois is taking in 36% of spread bets and 45% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Fighting Illini plus the points.

Illinois is also one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Fighting Illini are only taking in roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet, late night nationally televised game on TBS.

Ken Pom has Houston winning by just one point (72-71), which offers an edge on Illinois at the current price (+2.5).

Illinois has the better offensive efficiency (2nd vs 10th), effective field goal percentage (34th vs 139th), offensive rebound percentage (3rd vs 26th), three-point shooting (115th vs 125th) and free-throw shooting (12th vs 28th).

The Fighting Illini are also a “dog who can score” system match, averaging 85 PPG compared to 78 PPG for Houston.

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