MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, March 28.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI Player Prop Projections are also available.

2:15 PM Eastern

Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Rays starting pitcher Joe Boyle showed good swing-and-miss stuff last season with 10 strikeouts per nine innings, but supplied a 4.67 ERA due in large part to issuing 4.8 walks per nine innings. Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy had the opposite issue that led to his 4.42 ERA, issuing only 1.9 walks per nine innings but generating just 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The Rays offense last season was 14th in scoring with over 4.4 runs per game.

Pick: Rays vs. Cardinals Over 7.5
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7

4:05 PM Eastern

Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

It is fair to assume that Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola will improve from last season after posting a 6.01 ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed, but he has to duel against Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom, who had a 2.96 ERA with 9.6 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings last season. The Rangers also had a sneaky good bullpen last season, with their 3.62 ERA ranking fifth in the league.

Pick: Rangers +102
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -118

Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles

Twins starting pitcher Taj Bradley is coming off a rough 2025, as he supplied a 5.05 ERA with 3.5 walks per nine innings overall, which jumped to a 6.61 ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed after joining the Twins late in the season. Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish was stellar last season with a 2.53 ERA and 13.2 strikeouts per nine innings, but it came in a small sample size of six starts and 32 total innings. Both bullpens struggled last season, as the Orioles were 25th in bullpen ERA at 4.57 while the Twins were 26th at 4.60.

Pick: Twins vs. Orioles Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.2

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets

While the Pirates revamped their lineup a bit with the offseason signing of Marcell Ozuna, the team still has much of a core that ranked last in scoring with 3.6 runs per game. They will give Mitch Keller the start on the mound, who had a 4.19 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.6 walks per nine innings. Mets starting pitcher David Peterson had a 4.22 ERA last season, but his 3.48 fielding independent and 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed point toward positive regression this season.

Pick: Mets Run Line -1.5 +140
Greg’s Handicap: Mets -1.5 +129

4:10 PM Eastern

Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds

Sonny Gray will make his first start on the mound for the Boston Red Sox after a brutal finish to his 2025 season, posting a 4.28 ERA overall, but after the All-Star break, that ballooned to a 5.45 ERA with nearly 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed.

Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer posted a 4.03 ERA last season, but that improved to 3.62 after the All-Star break, with his walks per nine innings rate dropping from 3.6 before the break to 2.6 after. The offense supporting Singer should be more lethal this season with the return of Eugenio Suárez, who had 49 home runs with the Seattle Mariners and Arizona Diamondbacks last season.

Pick: Reds +135 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Reds +113 and Total 9

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7:15 PM Eastern

New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants

Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren has struggled at the big-league level, posting a 4.44 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings. Giants starting pitcher Tyler Mahle was limited to 16 starts last season, but made the most of them with a 2.16 ERA and 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. While the Giants bullpen has had some changes, their 3.48 ERA last season ranked fourth in the league.

Pick: Giants Moneyline +108
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -111

9:10 PM Eastern

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

While Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez had a 5.02 ERA last season, his 4.57 fielding independent points toward a more positive 2026. Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow will look to get his command back to where it was in 2024, when he had 2.4 walks per nine innings compared to 4.3 last season, but still posted a 3.19 ERA with 10.6 strikeouts and one home run per nine innings allowed. He is backed by a bullpen that got a massive upgrade in the offseason with the signing of Edwin Díaz.

Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2

9:40 PM Eastern

Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners

Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo had a nice 2025 season with a 2.93 ERA, 9.5 strikeouts, and 1.7 walks per nine innings, but did deal with some inflammation in his right pectoral toward the end of the season. Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo put it all together last season, posting a 3.21 ERA with 10.2 strikeouts and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed, and is supported by a bullpen whose 3.44 ERA last season ranked third in the league.

Pick: Guardians +163
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians +147

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