MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, March 30.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI Player Prop Projections are also available.

4:10 PM Eastern

Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals

Hitting conditions at Kauffman Field should be better than in 2025 with the offseason decision to move the fences inward, but the Royals are likely to still have offensive woes after averaging just 3.7 runs per game at home last season, the lowest mark in the league. They will look to provide better support to starting pitcher Kris Bubic, who was stellar in 2026 with a 2.55 ERA and a 2.85 fielding independent with just 0.5 home runs per nine innings.

Twins starting pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson looks to improve upon a 4.04 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed last season.

Pick: Twins vs. Royals Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7

6:35 PM Eastern

Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles

Rangers starting pitcher Jack Leiter came into his own last season, posting a 3.86 ERA with 1.1 home runs per nine innings after a rough introduction to the MLB level in 2024 that saw him post an 8.83 ERA.

Chris Bassitt makes his first start for the Orioles after posting a 3.96 ERA with the Toronto Blue Jays last season and faces a Rangers offense that was 22nd in scoring. The Orioles ranked 24th in scoring last season, and while they made some nice offseason moves to revamp the offense, including the signing of Pete Alonso, they are dealing with injuries to Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg.

Pick: Rangers vs. Orioles Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1

6:40 PM Eastern

Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins

White Sox starting pitcher Davis Martin posted a 4.10 ERA with a 4.66 fielding independent last season with very limited deception, generating just 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Chris Paddack makes his first start for the Miami Marlins after registering a 5.35 ERA between the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers, with his 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings right on par with Martin’s.

The White Sox enter with their bullpen having allowed seven runs in 3 1/3 innings on Sunday against the Milwaukee Brewers, and the team ranked 27th in scoring last season with fewer than four runs per game.

Pick: Marlins -125 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -144 and Total 7.6

Embed from Getty Images

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds

As a rookie last season, Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft had a nice year with a 2.71 ERA, 9.2 strikeouts, and 0.4 home runs per nine innings allowed, though much of this came as a reliever, as only eight of his 26 appearances were starts.

Reds pitcher Chase Burns had a 4.67 ERA as a rookie last season, but his 2.65 fielding independent with 13.9 strikeouts per nine innings and his college dominance at Wake Forest point toward significant upside. He faces a Pirates team that ranked last in scoring in 2025 with 3.6 runs per game.

Pick: Reds Moneyline -125
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -159

7:40 PM Eastern

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Starting pitcher Kyle Harrison makes his debut as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers after posting a 4.04 ERA with a 3.72 fielding independent with the San Francisco Giants and Boston Red Sox last season, but he has a bullpen behind him that was taxed on Sunday with Brandon Sproat lasting just three innings in his start.

The Rays bullpen has allowed 14 runs in 10 2/3 innings so far this season, while starting pitcher Nick Martinez had a 4.43 ERA last season with the Cincinnati Reds with just 2.3 walks per nine innings, but also pitched to a lot of contact with only 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Brewers lineup that ranked fifth in scoring last season with 4.8 runs per game.

Pick: Rays vs. Brewers Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7

Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs

The wind at Wrigley Field is anticipated to be blowing out at around 8 to 10 miles per hour, creating good hitting conditions. Cubs starting pitcher Edward Cabrera makes his debut for the team after posting a 3.53 ERA with 9.8 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings with the Miami Marlins last season.

Angels starting pitcher Ryan Johnson makes his first career MLB start after making 14 appearances out of the bullpen last season, posting a 7.36 ERA with 2.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. The Angels bullpen’s 4.86 ERA last season ranked 28th in the league.

Pick: Cubs Run Line -1.5 +115 and Over 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -1.5 -118 and Total 10.1

8:10 PM Eastern

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros

Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. was shaky in 2025 after missing the entire 2023 and 2024 seasons, posting a 6.51 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 6.3 walks per nine innings allowed.

Ranger Suárez makes his first start for the Boston Red Sox after being at his best on the road last season, posting a 3.54 ERA at home in Philadelphia compared to a 2.84 ERA with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed on the road. He is supported by a bullpen that ranked second in the league in ERA last season at 3.41, with most of those key pieces returning.

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -110
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -142

9:40 PM Eastern

New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners

Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo saw his strikeout numbers dip to a career-low 8.1 per nine innings last season, but also posted a career-best 2.3 walks per nine innings and was at his best at home, with a 2.60 ERA compared to a 4.70 ERA on the road.

Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers made just eight starts last year, posting a 3.99 ERA while battling injuries, but showed improvement with a career-best 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He is backed by a Yankees bullpen that started the season strong with 11 scoreless innings in their series against the San Francisco Giants.

Pick: Yankees vs. Mariners Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.4

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres

The Giants offense started the season slowly, scoring just one run in three games at home against the New York Yankees, and now look for a strong outing from Landen Roupp, who posted a 3.80 ERA with 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed last season.

Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler has not been himself since undergoing major surgery, posting a 4.93 ERA with 1.6 home runs per nine innings last season, but may have regained form late in the year with the Philadelphia Phillies, allowing just 10 hits and one run in 13 2/3 innings across his final three appearances. He is backed by a Padres bullpen that led the league in ERA last season at 3.06.

Pick: Padres -112 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -136 and Total 7.8

The post MLB Picks Today: Greg Peterson Best Bets Monday, March 30 appeared first on VSiN.