The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, March 31, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Since the start of the 2024 regular season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 409-272 for +86.19 units, and a ROI of 12.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-194 vs WSH), PITTSBURGH (-115 at CIN)

* Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 440-501 SU but for +66.38 units since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+135 at ATL), LA ANGELS (+123 at CHC), BOSTON (+123 at HOU)

Trend: SEA is 31-22 (+14.18 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-108 vs NYY)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse recordIn the 2025 regular season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units and a ROI of +14.0%. The two-year record on this angle is 396-266 for +83.41 units and a ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. For the ’26 season, the record is 13-6 (+2.78 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-194 vs WSH), PITTSBURGH (-115 at CIN)

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STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. For the ’26 season, the record is 3-1 (+1.90 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-156 vs CWS), CINCINNATI (-105 vs PIT), SAN DIEGO (+119 vs SF)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. This angle brought in +12.66 units over the final two weeks of ’25. For the ’26 season, the record is 6-8 (-4.48 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-131 at BAL), MILWAUKEE (-136 vs TB), LA DODGERS (-271 vs CLE)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For the ’26 season, the record is 3-4 (-1.73 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at MIA), WASHINGTON (+159 at PHI), COLORADO (+224 at TOR), ST LOUIS (+135 vs NYM)

FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference between teams is <19%In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%. The ’25 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. For the ’26 season, the record is 2-1 (-0.43 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-194 vs WSH), LA DODGERS (-271 vs CLE)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponentA 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the ’25 season, this angle took a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into 2026. For the ’26 season, the record is 6-2 (+1.01 units).System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-280 vs COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative systemIn combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the ’23-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In ’25, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. For the ’26 season, the record is 7-2 (+2.01 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-194 vs WSH), TORONTO (-280 vs COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season longPerhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in ’25, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. For the ’26 season, the record is 5-9 (-2.11 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+123 at HOU), DETROIT (-105 at AZ), SAN DIEGO (+119 vs SF)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaksFading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023 and ‘24 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For ’25, they were an unusual 220-211 for +18.9 units (ROI 4.4%). For the ’26 season, this record is 3-3 (+0.07 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so the ‘25 results of 107-100 for +3.03 units were disappointing.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – WASHINGTON (+159 at PHI), TAMPA BAY (+113 at MIL)
3 games – CINCINNATI (-105 vs PIT), HOUSTON (-149 vs BOS)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. For the ’26 season, this record is 4-1 (+4.61 units).System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+135 at ATL), LA ANGELS (+123 at CHC)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Although it lost -5.28 units in 2025, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-194 vs WSH), BOSTON (+123 at HOU)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponentTeams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 430-411 (51.1%) for +22.65 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-280 vs COL), PHILADELPHIA (-194 vs WSH)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next gameSince 2018, doesn’t matter whether the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they have posted a winning record of 1989-1872 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -247.50 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA, COLORADO, WASHINGTON, CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outingConsider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over the last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,982-2,525 (44%) for -243.98 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, ATHLETICS, LA ANGELS, BOSTON, NY YANKEES

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outingGoing back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4,019-3,494 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -507.28 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, CHICAGO CUBS, HOUSTON, ARIZONA

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favoritesHome favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 368-182 (66.9%) for +52.93 units and an ROI of 9.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-280 vs COL), HOUSTON (-149 vs BOS)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 326-293 (52.7%) for +19.34 units and an ROI  of 3.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-280 vs COL), PHILADELPHIA (-194 vs WSH)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams that won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 79-123 SU (-24.28 units) as underdogs in the follow-up game since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-108 vs NYY)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 62-34 SU for +15.53 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-115 at CIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-143 at SD)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 440-501 SU but for +66.38 units since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+135 at ATL), LA ANGELS (+123 at CHC), BOSTON (+123 at HOU)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 265-282 run (+7.64 units, ROI: 1.4%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ATHLETICS (+135 at ATL)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: COLORADO +224 (+46 diff), CLEVELAND +224 (+45), CINCINNATI -105 (+20)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS -131 (+25 diff), MILWAUKEE -136 (+19), MIAMI -156 (+18), HOUSTON -149 (+17)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SF-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CWS-MIA UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(957) SAN FRANCISCO (1-3) at (958) SAN DIEGO (1-3)Trend: San Francisco is 1-6 (-5.54 units) on the road vs San Diego in the last 6+ seasons with starter Logan Webb
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-143 at SD)

(959) TEXAS (3-1) at (960) BALTIMORE (2-2)Trend: Texas is 3-11 (-9.73 units) in its last 14 night games as a -130 favorite or less (including underdog) with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (FADE): NOT YET BUT WATCH FOR TEXAS at BAL (-131 CURRENTLY)

Trend: Zach Eflin is 27-13 (+8.48 units) in night games the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+109 vs TEX)

(963) NEW YORK-AL (3-1) at (964) SEATTLE (3-2)Trend: Max Fried is 52-39 starting against teams with a winning record in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NY YANKEES (-112 at SEA)

Trend: SEA is 31-22 (+14.18 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-108 vs NYY)

(965) CHICAGO-AL (1-3) at (966) MIAMI (3-1)Trend: Erick Fedde is 3-14 (-10.80 units) in his last 17 starts as a road underdog
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at MIA)

Trend: Under the total is 14-4-1 (+9.50 units) when Erick Fedde is within -155 to +148 line range in night games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-MIA (o/u at 8.5)

(971) LOS ANGELES-AL (2-3) at (972) CHICAGO-NL (2-2)
Trend: The Cubs are 17-5 (+9.35 units) as a favorite in the -145 to -165 line range by starter Jameson Taillon in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-149 vs LAA)

Series #26: Texas at Baltimore, Mon 3/30-Wed 4/1
Trend: Underdogs (and pick-’ems) are 23-13 (63.9%, +12.34 units) in the last 36 games between Texas and Baltimore
— The ROI on this trend is 34.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+109 vs TEX)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, BOSTON, DETROIT

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so consider the risk when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, TORONTO, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
— Majority handle bettors on home teams in MARCH/APRIL of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, TORONTO, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATH-ATL, PIT-CIN, DET-AZ

The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Tuesday, March 31 appeared first on VSiN.