MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, April 1.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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12:15 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves
Athletics starting pitcher Luis Severino was significantly better away from home than at home last season, posting a 6.01 ERA at home compared to a 3.02 ERA on the road with only 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed away from home.
Braves starting pitcher Chris Sale began the 2026 season on a high note with six shutout innings against the Kansas City Royals after posting a 2.58 ERA with a 2.67 fielding independent last season, generating 11.8 strikeouts to 2.3 walks per nine innings. The Braves were 21st in runs per game at home last season at 4.2.
Pick: Athletics vs. Braves Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8
1:07 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros
The Astros lineup looks to be revamped after ranking 21st in scoring last season with just over 4.2 runs per game, as they had scored 28 runs in their previous three games entering Tuesday night. However, they now face Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet, who posted a 2.59 ERA with 11.2 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings while being supported by a lineup that ranked sixth in scoring with 4.8 runs per game.
They face Astros starting pitcher Mike Burrows, who had a 3.94 ERA last season with the Pittsburgh Pirates and surrendered five runs on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings in his Astros debut last week. The Astros bullpen is also far from full strength, with closer Josh Hader on the injured list.
Pick: Red Sox Run Line -1.5 +128 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -1.5 +113 and Total 8.1
1:10 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara looked more like the former Cy Young Award winner we are accustomed to in his first start of the season, allowing one unearned run in seven innings against the Colorado Rockies. Last season, he posted a 5.36 ERA in his first year coming off major surgery, but his 4.28 fielding independent with 2.8 walks and 1.1 home runs per nine innings suggests he was somewhat unlucky.
White Sox starting pitcher Shane Smith had a 3.89 ERA last season with 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings and one home run per nine innings allowed, but was chased after just 1 2/3 innings in his first start of the season against the Milwaukee Brewers. He should benefit from facing a Marlins lineup that averaged 3.9 runs per game at home last season, which ranked 27th in the league.
Pick: White Sox vs. Marlins Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.2
1:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Mets starting pitcher Freddy Peralta looked shaky in his first start with the team, allowing four runs in five innings, and it could be a sign of things to come. Last season with the Milwaukee Brewers, he posted a 2.70 ERA that may have been aided by some good fortune, as he allowed 1.1 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings for a 3.64 fielding independent.
Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore is coming off a 4.21 ERA with 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that has struggled to begin the season, posting a 7.94 ERA entering Tuesday.
Pick: Mets vs. Cardinals Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The starting pitchers in this game are opposites. Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski posted a 4.36 ERA last season but a much better 3.62 fielding independent with 11.9 strikeouts and 4.2 walks per nine innings, and he settled in after allowing a home run to begin his Opening Day start, finishing with just one run allowed over five innings.
Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen had a 2.76 ERA with a 3.84 fielding independent last season, generating 7.6 strikeouts to 2.2 walks per nine innings, but is backed by a Rays bullpen that entered Tuesday with an 8.78 ERA. The Brewers ranked fifth in scoring last season with 4.8 runs per game.
Pick: Rays vs. Brewers Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.6
4:10 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starting pitcher Nick Pivetta was at his best at home last season, posting a 2.36 ERA with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed in San Diego compared to a 3.55 ERA with over 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed on the road.
Giants starting pitcher Adrian Houser had a career year in 2025, posting a 3.31 ERA with 0.7 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings. As a pitch-to-contact arm with just 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings, he should benefit from Petco Park being a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Both bullpens were excellent last season, with the Giants ranking fourth in ERA at 3.48 while the Padres led the league at 3.06.
Pick: Giants vs. Padres Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3
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