The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, April 1, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 352-383 but for +99.14 units and an ROI of 13.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+184 at ATL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at MIA), LA ANGELS (+139 at CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+123 at SD)

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Trend: Nathan Eovaldi’s teams are 28-11 (+17.06 units) in his last 39 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-102 at BAL)

* Heavy underdogs of +220 or more who lost their last game by only one run have had their totals go Under at 91-54-6 (62.8%) rate in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-PHI (o/u at 8)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse recordIn the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. For the ’26 season, these teams have a record of 15-6 (+4.78 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-163 at CIN), PHILADELPHIA (-286 vs WSH), NY METS (-171 at STL), BOSTON (-156 at HOU), CHICAGO CUBS (-168 vs LAA), DETROIT (-163 at ARI), SEATTLE (-118 vs NYY), SAN DIEGO (-156 vs SF)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-120 at KC)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. This angle brought in +12.66 units over the final two weeks of 2025. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 9-8 (-1.48 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-226 vs ATH), TEXAS (-102 at BAL), PITTSBURGH (-163 at CIN), MILWAUKEE (-143 vs TB), BOSTON (-156 at HOU), SAN DIEGO (-156 vs SF)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 4-7 (-3.47 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+229 at PHI), COLORADO (+248 at TOR) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. For the ’26 season, these teams have a record of 4-1 (+1.57 units).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-286 vs WSH)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponentA 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 7-2 (+2.01 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-226 vs ATH), TORONTO (-314 vs COL), LA DODGERS (-271 vs CLE)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative systemIn combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 9-2 (+4.01 units).
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-271 vs CLE) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season longPerhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 5-12 (-5.21 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-102 at BAL), KANSAS CITY (+100 vs MIN) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaksI have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For ‘25, they were an uncustomary 220-211 for +18.9 units (ROI 4.4%). For the ’26 season, these teams have a record of 3-5 (-1.93 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so the ‘25 results of 107-100 for +3.03 units were disappointing. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 1-1 (+0.00 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – ARIZONA (+135 vs DET), SAN FRANCISCO (+129 at SD)
3+ games – HOUSTON (+129 vs BOS) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaksAlthough it lost -5.28 units in 2025, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 1-1 (+0.00 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-156 at HOU), DETROIT (-163 at ARI) 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 409-419 but for +47.79 units and an ROI of 5.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-156 at HOU), DETROIT (-163 at ARI) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 352-383 but for +99.14 units and an ROI of 13.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+184 at ATL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at MIA), LA ANGELS (+139 at CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+123 at SD)
*WATCH FOR TEXAS at BAL (-102 CURRENTLY) and NY YANKEES at SEA (-102 CURRENTLY)

MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 156-63 for +14.14 units and an ROI of 6.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-286 vs WSH) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 628-720 record, but for +34.31 units and an ROI of 2.5% since the start of the ’22 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at MIA), WASHINGTON (+229 at PHI), COLORADO (+248 at TOR), TAMPA BAY (+119 at MIL), NY METS (-168 at STL), BOSTON (-156 at HOU), CLEVELAND (+218 at LAD) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next gameSince 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1990-1875 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -249.50 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, HOUSTON, SAN FRANCISCO 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outingYou’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1986-2526 (44%) for -240.50 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, WASHINGTON, COLORADO, LA ANGELS, TAMPA BAY, NY METS, BOSTON, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outingGoing back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4022-3495 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -505.71 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, MIAMI, TORONTO, MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON, ARIZONA

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hitHome teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 592-486 (54.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +34.64 units, for an ROI of 3.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-168 vs LAA), SEATTLE (-118 vs NYY) 

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hostsHome teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 328-293 (52.8%) for +21.34 units and an ROI of 3.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-149 vs SF)

Big underdogs after heartbreak fall flatHeavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 39-136 SU for -43.00 units in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+229 at PHI)

When these teams are +220 or more, Under the total is 91-54-6 (62.8%) in their next game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-PHI (o/u at 8)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 64-34 SU for +17.53 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-156 at HOU), MINNESOTA (-120 at KC) 

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 442-502 SU but for +67.86 units since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at MIA), TAMPA BAY (+119 at MIL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 266-282 run (+8.93 units, ROI: 1.6%).
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-156 at HOU) 

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 138-136 (-52.85 units, ROI: -19.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-102 at BAL), HOUSTON (+129 vs BOS) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: CLEVELAND +218 (+48 diff), COLORADO +248 (+45), WASHINGTON +229 (+40), KANSAS CITY +100 (+37), CINCINNATI +135 (+26), ATHLETICS +184 (+20) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE -118 (+15 diff), DETROIT -163 (+15) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: NYM-STL OVER 7.5 (+0.7), BOS-HOU OVER 7 (+0.5), COL-TOR OVER 7.5 (+0.5), TB-MIL OVER 7 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: TEX-BAL UNDER 8.5 (-0.8), MIN-KC UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), SF-SD UNDER 8 (-0.5), CWS-MIA UNDER 8 (-0.5), CLE-LAD UNDER 8 (-0.5) 

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) PITTSBURGH (1-3) at (902) CINCINNATI (3-1)Trend: CIN is 8-3 (+7.89 units) as a large underdog of +129 or more with starter Andrew Abbott the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+135 vs PIT)

(903) WASHINGTON (3-1) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (1-3)
Trend: PHI is 27-6 (+15.46 units) in the favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-286 vs WSH)

(905) NEW YORK-NL (3-1) at (906) ST LOUIS (2-2)Trend: Freddy Peralta is just 7-8 (-4.45 units) vs. St Louis with starter in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-171 at STL)

Trend: Under the total is 11-3 (+7.70 units) in the last 14 road game starts for Freddy Peralta versus NL teams within line range of -300 to +112 since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-NYM (o/u at 7.5)

(907) SAN FRANCISCO (1-3) at (908) SAN DIEGO (1-3)Trend: Adrian Houser is 25-11 (+15.12 units) in the last 36 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+129 at SD)

(909) TEXAS (3-1) at (910) BALTIMORE (2-2)Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 28-11 (+17.06 units) in the last 39 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-102 at BAL)

(913) NEW YORK-AL (3-1) at (914) SEATTLE (3-2)Trend: SEA is 11-7 (+2.01 units) as a short home favorite (between -111 and -140) with George Kirby in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-118 vs NYY)

(917) ATHLETICS (0-4) at (918) ATLANTA (3-1)Trend: Luis Severino is 17-37 (-17.06 units) as an underdog in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+184 at ATL)

(919) COLORADO (1-3) at (920) TORONTO (3-1)Trend: COL is 11-31 (-12.76 units) on the road the last few seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+248 at TOR)

(925) LOS ANGELES-AL (2-3) at (926) CHICAGO-NL (2-2)Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 17-12 (+11.89 units) as a day game underdog of +105 or more in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+139 at CHC)

(929) CLEVELAND (3-2) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (3-1)Trend: CLE is 8-17 (-8.78 units) against teams with a win pct of 55% or higher with starter Gavin Williams the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+218 at LAD)

Series #9: Minnesota at Kansas City, Mon 3/30-Thu 4/2Trend: Home teams in the Royals-Twins AL Central rivalry are on a 39-13 (75%, +25.66 units) run in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 49.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+100 vs MIN) 

Series #26: Texas at Baltimore, Mon 3/30-Wed 4/1Trend: Underdogs (and pick ’ems) are 23-14 (62.2%, +11.34 units) in the last 36 games between TEX and BAL
– The ROI on this trend is 30.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-102 at BAL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): NY YANKEES, KANSAS CITY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, TORONTO, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, DETROIT, LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS, SAN DIEGO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS

The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Wednesday, April 1 appeared first on VSiN.