March Madness Picks – Tuley’s College Basketball Takes for the Final Four:

It’s a good thing we’ve had baseball to keep us occupied this week in the Tuley’s Takes home office, as we’re going through college basketball withdrawals. Does anyone else feel that after having wall-to-wall NCAA Tournament basketball the last two Thursdays through Sundays and having to wait until Saturday this week? But we still can’t wait for Saturday and the Final Four.

Last weekend, our “takes” columns here at VSiN went 4-4 overall as we were 1-1 each day, basically trading money (minus the vig) in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. It was frustrating, but I actually didn’t feel too bad considering how much chalk has been dominating most of the tourney. Favorites are 47-13 straight up (78.3%) and 33-25-2 against the spread (56.9%) overall, so it could be worse for “dog or pass” bettors. For those interested, Unders lead 33-27 (55%) mostly thanks to dominating the second round at 12-4.

But enough looking back. We have two great matchups in the Final Four that are pretty close to pick ’em with #3 seed Illinois favored by 2 points over #2 seed UConn and #1 Michigan favored by 1,5 over #1 Arizona.

Here are my takes on the national semifinals, and I’ll be back at VSiN.com on Sunday with my take on Monday night’s title game.

#3 Illinois (Over 139.5) vs. #2 UConn

Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET

UConn is here because of its 73-72 upset of No. 1 Duke on Braylon Mullins’ last-second 3-pointer, while Illinois’ path was made easier with No. 1 Florida’s loss to Iowa, but their big win was getting past No. 2 seed Houston. With UConn’s championship culture, which really shone through vs. Duke, it’s tempting to take the Huskies plus a few points, but I like the total a lot better.

Now, I know what I wrote before about Unders being the better bet so far this tourney (and regular readers know I look to Unders before Overs just like dogs over chalk and it’s served me well), plus how basketball games in football stadiums tend to be lower-scoring and often give an edge to Unders.

However, in this case, I believe the oddsmakers and early bettors have put too much stock in this and the fact both teams are 3-1 to the Under so far in the tourney, so the total is several points lower than I believe it should be (I have it at 144.5). I’m also convinced everyone is looking at how both teams play at a slower pace, with Illinois ranking No. 296 in Adjusted Tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) at kenpom.com while UConn is even slower at No. 319.

Having said all that, I think people are also giving enough credit to the offenses as Illinois is No. 1 in offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) while UConn is No. 28 and again converted when needed vs. Duke, which was the Huskies’ first Over.

I also looked back at my Tweets on @ViewFromVegas from 2021, the last time the Final Four was held at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, and both semifinal games went Over on Saturday (the second game was Gonzaga beating UCLA in OT, but it had already gone Over in regulation). The title game stayed Under the closing total of 158.5, but that was mostly because Gonzaga won in an 86-70 blowout with no desperate fouling at the end.

This should be a tighter game with both teams scoring in the 70s.

#1 Arizona +1.5 vs. #1 Michigan

Embed from Getty Images

Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET

I should definitely say here that I like the Illinois-UConn play more than this play, but I still believe Arizona is the right side. I know KenPom has Michigan ranked No. 1 and Arizona No. 2, but I’ve felt all season that Arizona is the best overall team, though I admit the margin is slim here with Michigan No. 1 in defensive efficiency, with Arizona at No. 2 and the Wildcats holding the same slim margin at No. 4 in offensive efficiency and the Wolverines at No. 5.

Even though I would make Arizona a slight 1-point favorite, I thought that oddsmakers everywhere made the right call in opening it at pick’-em when the matchup was set on Sunday, and it was the earlier bettors that moved Michigan to favoritism.

Now, I know I’ve been burned by fading Michigan twice already this tourney, with Saint Louis in the second round and Alabama in the Sweet 16, and I certainly know they have a ton of talent. However, in the games I’ve watched them this season, they seem to make mental errors that don’t always show up in the box score and they’ve been able to overcome against lesser teams. That could very well be the difference here. 

I know this is a silly prediction, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if a Michigan player makes a bonehead decision in crunch time and the broadcast shows the Chris Webber timeout from the 1993 championship game lost by the Fab Five. Just remember, you read it here first.

I almost went with Under 157.5 (I have it at 153.5, so call that a lean) due to the top-rated defenses plus Arizona relying more on 2s than 3s, but I’d rather just have money on the Wildcats and not have to cheer against them if they get hot and this turns into a shootout.

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